9/24/05 FCST: NE/IA

[nickgrillo]

Strong southeasterly SFC flow will advect ample moisture into the warm sector airmass south of the frontal boundary this afternoon. SFC Td's will be >60F across a widespread area, and along with insolation - will yield good SFC-based instability in excess of 1500-2500J/KG. Strong veering present in the 700mb-SFC layer favors a few tornadic supercells (along with sufficiant low-level moisture/instability), particularly across eastern Nebraska. Didn't look at too much yet, but the latest SWODY1 certainly caught my eye.

 

[Chris Allington]

I really agree with what Nick said but I'm hoping we can get some clearing here within the next couple of hours, a few small thundershowers are moving through the area as the result of an outflow boundary from all of the convection over western IA. If/ when clearing occurs temps are expected to be near 90 degrees with Dp's in the mid-upper 60's. Having said that I think the better chance of supercells would be in Northeastern NE closer to the surface front unless we get some clearing.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Clearing beginging to take place farther south in the LNC area, but fog and low level clouds holding strong yet here north of Omaha.

 

[Sean McMullen]

Is it me, or does this look like the exact same setup as last week? If it is I think I'll just head for Oneil, NE again. I get great cell service up there, if any of you NE boys are going PM me maybe we'll have to meet up.

 

[Chris Allington]

Well I don't really have a vehicle right now because I have a stripped sparkplug but I may still be heading north later this afternoon, either that or staying put.

Clearing is taking place here in Omaha and should continue throughout the day looking at vis sat imagery. The outflow boundary will remain near Omaha throughout the day and may become reinforced as a warmfront if clouds take hold up north. I agree fairly well with what the OAX HWO now says and things are now looking alot better further south than the surface front in Nern NE and SErn SD. Any storms that can root on the boundary will have a failry decent tornado chance with the amount of shear present today...

Will be interesting to see the 2000z outlook.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

OFB can now be seen slowly lifting N currently from near omaha to the Wahoo area. DP have risen significantly and tempertures are quickly rising as clouds continue to dissapate, If enough surface heating can occur to break the cap that OFB might be a prime area for explosive development later this evening.

 

[Dan Christianson]

OFB is visble yes im hoping we can get some more clearing ... it looks like we could make it... im just hoping for a show before sundown" but either way chasing at night can be fun too... i targeted the David City to Central City line last time and it didnt work too good, but it looks more favorable with the supercell parameters" ... paitently waiting for something"

good luck to all who go out... :wink:

 

[Jason Tunzer]

New MD out for East Central and Northeast NE.Looks like the clouds are clearing out just in time! Jason

 

[Chris Allington]

Tornado Watch including SEern SD, SWern MN, NW IA, and all of NErn and Ern NE...

Good luck to all chasing today, Initiation is occuring in a N/S line from Sern SD into Nern NE...

 

[Kurt Hulst]

Id also watch the areas from west of KEarny north to Broken bow to west of burwell. looks like a line of convergence formulating there again and thats has some nice parameters to work with as well as a weakening to non exsistant cap with 2500 J/Kg last i looked. this is along the cold front but the latest SAT isnt looking as good with feathery looking midlevel clouds above the CU field i was seeing

 

[afischer]

There appears to be a surface triple point in advance of the synoptic cold front near Bartlett NE.... created by a weak N-S pressure trough in northcentral NE, and some sort of WNW-ESE baroclinically-induced boundary in eastcentral NE (not sure if this is an old OFB or not). Vis shows a very localized area of cumulus on the latter boundary... from Bartlett toward near Columbus. This would seem to be a good area for initiation. Modified RUC soundings support a weakly capped, moderately unstable environment, perhaps northeastward through the O'Neill (edit... meant OFK, not ONL) vicinity.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

looks like precip is starting to initate b/w Broken Bow and Burwell.

EDIT:
And indeed there is a nice looking cell running NE along the Cold Front and should intersect the warm front soon.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

The northern most cell seems to have rooted in the warm front and has taken a right turn and continues to keep its intesity. im suprised this now thread is so quiet.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I was planning on going out but initiation took place farther west then I wanted to drive, I dont have my computer with me this weekend. But I am here near fremont and the storm that has apperaed to have found the front is headed my way, so far no indications of rotation but I am keeping fingers crossed.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

my guess is there is rotation in this storm. the storm is currently on the outter limits of all three Radar sites. When its so far away the hieght of the scan is higher in altitude so it will not pick up any low level rotation. Remeber the earth isn't flat lol.