8/15/08 DISC: Eastern Europe

[Lars Lowinski]

Hi again,

apparently, there have been at least two strong tornadoes in the southern and central parts of Poland yesterday, more information is still coming online. So far, the most severe damage seems to have occured SE of Opole in the town of Sieroniowice. It is near this small town where the vortex crossed a large highway and tossed several vehicles, killing two people. Check out this dramatic video, I hope all the passengers on this bus were ok after this:

http://www.tvn24.pl/0,1561396,0,1,jezus--maria--idzie-na-nas,wiadomosc.html

In general, the weather pattern over large portions of central Europe is pretty conducive to severe storms and tornadoes this summer, esp. in the last few weeks.

Remember the F4-tornado in nrn France was not that long ago and during June and July, we´ve also had several very active days with flash floods, hailstorms and downbursts from France to Belgium to Germany and Austria.

Regards,
Lars

 

[Marko Korosec]

08/15/08 DISC: South Poland tornadoes

Hey all,

again, an extreme severe weather stroke across Europe on August 15th. Here you can read ESTOFEX's outlook we had for this day:

http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/...e=2008081606_200808142116_3_stormforecast.xml

http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/...=2008081606_200808141809_3_forecastupdate.xml

At least two large tornadoes were reported, causing extensive damage and unfortunatelly several fatalities and tenths of injured people.

You can see few videos and damage photos here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_EPXh32sQKA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aF88q-JDWrY
http://www.skywarn.de/forum/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=6009
http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=-PaTsoDWDkI
http://www.tvn24.pl/-1,1561338.1,0,1,nawalnice-nad-polska-zabily-dwie-osoby,wiadomosc.html
http://forum.lowcyburz.pl/viewtopic.php?f=163&p=17209#p17209
http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=gLT43J4E96w

Regards,
Marko

 

[Adam Lucio]

Wow, all that was an interesting read. I know events such as that are very rare in that part of the world, but is it even more unlikely this time of the year? Like having a Kansas high risk outbreak at this time?

That bus video from Poland was pretty intense.

 

[Danny Neal]

That bus video is outrageous! I wonder if anyone perished on that bus. I hope not. That had to be one wild ride! In the opening shots I didn't even see the tornado and then it just appears. Looked like a nice little drill bit. That car in front had front row seats. I hope no one was seriously injured or killed in that and I am sorry to hear about the loss of life and property elsewhere.

 

[Lars Lowinski]

In response to Adam´s question regarding the likelihood events like the one in Poland yesterday:
actually, most severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in western and central Europe do occur during the summer months, mainly between May and August. That´s where the available moisture and instability as well as the occurence of the EML (generated over the hot, high grounds of Spain and extreme northwestern Africa) are at their peak while the wind shear profiles are sufficient in some cases. You could compare it to the environments of the far northern states in the US or to Canada during summer.

However, in many other instances, the "dynamics" are not that strong during the summer months and big trough events with lots of shear AND Cape don´t occur that often.
Some other typical tornado environments mainly in western parts of central Europe develop in fall and winter, when the wind profiles become better and there´s still some more potential energy available. These are the patterns where we do get storms that are more of the fast-moving, low-topped sup variety.

The supercells and tornadoes of October 1st, 2006 in Belgium were a typical example.

Best regards,
Lars

 

[Sam Sagnella]

The ESTOFEX reports page shows that the maximum path width of the deadly Poland tornado at 800m; that's very impressive! The rating has not yet been assigned as far as I can tell, but a general assessment of T7/T8 (which is borderline F3/F4 -- not EF, mind you) has been reached at the following Polish weather board. http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.lowcyburz.pl%2Fviewtopic.php%3Ff%3D169%26t%3D1366%26p%3D17242+p17242&hl=en&ie=UTF8&sl=pl&tl=en Based on some of the pictures posted there, I can't really disagree with that conclusion; that was certainly a very very strong tornado. Hopefully some actual ground surveying occurs/is occurring.

 

[Derek Weston]

More video of the tornado:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7565187.stm

 

[Helge Tuschy]

Another video from Poland:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_qezma88xU

Cheers, Helge

 

[Paul Knightley]

Yes, that last video is quite amazing. However, it goes some way in demostrating what people's mentality is when something occurs of which they have very little experience, and probably not much education. In the USA, many people understand the risks associated with tornadoes; in Poland I doubt it's the same. In addition, I would expect there to have been very little warning of this event (in real time - obviously Estofex did very well here, with a Level 3 threat given for the region).

 

[Dean Gill]

Here is another video. Very very close!

http://it.youtube.com/watch?v=U4lkCGq9ZfY

 

[Danny Neal]

Here is another video. Very very close!

http://it.youtube.com/watch?v=U4lkCGq9ZfY

WOW..... that guy has some major :: !!!!! I keep getting amazed by some of the video I am seeing.

 

[Jason Boggs]

WOW..... that guy has some major :: !!!!! I keep getting amazed by some of the video I am seeing.

Yea, and he's also an idiot by standing directly in front of a glass window.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

That looked like a direct hit, not a near miss.

Pardon is only granted because the dangers are less known over there. But still, if you see ... that, get under sumpin'.

 

[Dean Gill]

Yea, and he's also an idiot by standing directly in front of a glass window.

Yes but don't forget we're in a european country where most of the people do not know much about tornadoes and how to react in case of a tornado. So I guess there still must be a pretty large amount of so called "idiots" around .
I'm also quite sure that no tornado warning was ever issued in that case.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Yes but don't forget we're in a european country where most of the people do not know much about tornadoes and how to react in case of a tornado. So I guess there still must be a pretty large amount of so called "idiots" around .
I'm also quite sure that no tornado warning was ever issued in that case.

Yeah, maybe calling him an idiot was a little harsh. It just wasn't too wise to be standing in front of a large glass window with a tornado bearing down on him.