5/13/08 NOW: KS/MO/OK/TX/AR

[Michael O'Keeffe]

A Tornado watch is in effect for much of E OK into N TX until 9pm this evening.

Looking at the visible a nice line of cu/tcu look to be building along the boundary from SE KS down into NC TX. I expect initiation within the next hour.

 

[Mike Johnston]

There we go.....cell just SE of Cushing, OK...along the boundary line visible on Oklahoma City radar. Storm top rapidly fired upwards to 40K ft in minutes. Expect development sw'wd along the wind shift line.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

The boundary is very clear all the way from Texas to NW Missouri. Agree that storm near Cushing is becoming established. Wind looks favorable in that area. 100-150 0-1 km SRH. LFC is running around 1250 through there, with LCLs in the 2000-3000 range. Hopefully storms will manage to become surface rooted.

Keeping an eye on the area S-SW of OKC, as convergence seems to be maximizing here all the way to Wichita Falls area. I also like the wind down there. Theta-E advection healthy along the boundary there. Wichita Falls is looking primed if you can get initiation soon.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

MD posted for NE OK/E KS/W MO mentioning supercells with large hail and isolated tornadoes by 00z. Storms trying to go now from NW MO into C OK. I am liking the NE-SW orientation of the cold front extending from Ottawa up towards Kirksville, things could get interesting around here...maybe.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Storm that fired near Cushing is now SVR-warned, along with a cell to the west of Creek. Moving NE @ 24kts.

These are currently undergoing explosive development, and intensifying with each sweep.

EDIT - new tor-watch box issued for NE Oklahoma into SE Kansas and western Missouri. Storms are firing from area just west of Tulsa/east of Ponca City up into southern Kansas.

 

[Evan Stubbart]

Party has started right near where I wanted to be (Graham, TX). Look for warnings to go out soon. As for the Tor threat, I'm still concurned about service winds in this area not being strong enough from what I see. Going to be a long night for the folks in the DFW area...

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

I like the cells down by Mason and Brady, TX. I still vote Central Texas as the greatest potential right now, although the biggest monster on radar seems to be in Mexico attm ...

 

[Lee Kuhlman]

Gabrielle Formentini has Josh Wurman's new DOW truck on streaming vid now at http://live.severestudios.com/thunderstorm.team.asx. TIV is just off camera to the right. They are in Southern OK near Davis.

Oh, and to conform to the thread rules, convection seems to be increasing in a SWRD direction down the boundary line.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

Throckmorton seems to have a bit of a notch to the SE. Getting some Christmas colors on SRV1 in that notch-looking spot from KFDR.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I've been sitting in Pauls Valley for about 2 hours and am bored to tears. There isn't any other chasers here. I'm at the first wifi spot in the only decent sized town in the area, and no chasers? Well I just heard about the DOW being 10 miles south of here, so I guess that is where everybody is at. Back to the topic now. There is finally a nice tower going up just NW of Pauls Valley, so hopefully it will get going.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

The svr-warned storms just south of Wichita Falls are getting ready to move into the watch box area. The winds are backing out of the southeast at the surface and 850mb in the area they are moving into, making me think they should be approaching a more favorable environment. DFW is reporting a 72 degree dewpoint, so hopefully that area is primed for better development.

South of OKC still struggling, having difficulty getting towers up.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Update for SE Kansas:

Cells in this area are svr-warned, in Linn County (to the west of Mound City). However, I am seeing generally unidirectional winds in this area. I'm not too overly impressed with the wind up there today (one of the reasons I'm sitting at home). But the Linn/Bourbon County storm is taking on a better supercell-type appearance. Also, I notice very high LFCs in this area, on the order of 3000-4000. LCLs are not bad, around 1000. I'm thinking the storms there will for the most part remain elevated and/or linear as time goes on.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Update for points south of OKC:

Looks like you finally have initiation on a cell south of Norman. It has grown considerably the past few sweeps. Storms still generally moving to the northeast around 25 kts. Something is holding us back this afternoon ...

The wind is looking better down there than it is on the cells between OKC and Tulsa.

Edit - I'm noticing the chaser bees swarming in on it. lol

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

there's that notch SE of Throckmorton again with some more pretty green and red on the SRV 1. Headed for Graham and keeps wanting to get its act together - let's see if it will.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

The SVR-warned cell west of Okfuskee is taking on a much healthier comma shape. It appears to be edging out the surrounding cells at this point. There is good inflow right into that storm right now.

The Throckmorton storm is looking terrific. Looks like its starting to spin up to me. It is actually indicating the strongest core of any of them currently on the map. Grab it if you're in the area. It's moving into a sweet spot.

The cell south of Norman hasn't been able to get its act together yet.

Edit: Kansas is remaining a general mess.