3/23/2009 NOW: SD/NE/KS/OK

[Eric Treece]

Let the mayhem begin. Tornado watch issued a while ago in NE/SD. Been watching a severe warned storm on GRL3 in Frontier County NE. It just crossed I-80 and seems to be collapsing at the moment. Dryline is showing up very nicely on the visible satellite.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Will be interested in seeing what the low-topped supercells are doing up there in NE close to the low. Looks like Kansas is already starting to blossom too. Radar returns won't be that impressive up there, but still crazy storms. Kansas should have a box or two out shortly, I'd think.

Edit - here's the MD out for Kansas now: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0240.html

Edit 2 - Tor-watch for Kansas: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0054.html

 

[nickgrillo]

LOL, I was just getting ready to post a thread. I'll make it quick:

RUC mesoanalysis shows gradual weakening trend in SBCINH and associated lowering in SBLFC heights along/ahead of the dryline in central KS/western OK owed to insolation / boundary layer mixing/deepening. Low-level moistening and diabatic surface heating has also increased sbCAPE -- 500-1000j/kg -- across much of the warm sector. The TCu which has been forming along the dryline (from central KS into western OK) should continue to increase and develop into deep moist convection as insolation / low-level moist advection continues through the next several hours. RUC/NAM forecast soundings across southcentral KS and northcentral OK project an environment conductive of tornadic supercells, with widespread 1000-1500j/kg total sbCAPE (modest 150-175j/kg of 0-3km low-level CAPE) and very strong to extreme low-level SRH -- i.e. >250j/kg accruing in the lowest 0-1km AGL -- given the favorable low-level cyclonic curvature in forecast hodographs. Strong tropospheric flow yields very strong 50-70kts of 0-6km bulk shear across much of the warm sector, favoring sustained convection including cyclic supercells. 4km WRF doesn't initiate DMC in southcentral KS until after 00z, but I believe we may see it a tad sooner (additionally, it develops a small cluster of storms east of ICT around 3z).

Still looks like ICT for me.

 

[Eric Treece]

TOR Watch in KS/OK now as well. Looking at the satellite, looks as though the little bit of clearing ahead of the dryline was enough to get things to pop. Being that things are firing earlier than I anticipated along the DL, I am wondering how that will play out thoughout the day.........also wondering how high the bases will be with Td's in the mid 50's?

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Kansas storms appear to be taking on some nice supercell characteristics. Flying eagle on one north of Russel, looks like.

 

[afischer]

Not surprisingly, with the very tight pressure gradient and diurnal mixing, observed surface winds are about 10 kt stronger across the board than forecast by the last few runs of the NAM-WRF... with 30-35 kts sustained immediately ahead of the dryline in central KS (39 kt at Hutchinson... yikes). This is going to take a chunk out of the low-level shear (I've never had good luck with seeing tornadoes on really, really windy days)... though the LLJ holding at 50-55 kts per VWPs means 0-1 km SRH will at least remain pretty decent (probably > 200) the next few hours. Of course, with T/Td spreads currently AOA 22F that may not really matter. I'm definitely not discounting the chance for tornadoes, particularly much later on when the BL starts to decouple... all depending on how far the good juice retreats NW, and how strongly sfc-based the environment remains as the LCLs drop toward dark. Tough forecast.

 

[Eric Treece]

Public reported tornado in Cherry County NE.

 

[Robert Edmonds]

Sitting in Okarche, OK, well south of the watch. I've seen a few things try and go up and die off. Hopefully I won't go bust being so far south.

 

[Eric Treece]

Been watching Tyler Costantini's stream for a while and lost it. Can't get any of the feeds up. Anyone else having this problem? Looks like the storm near Kingman is getting organized on GRL3.

 

[Eric Treece]

Andy Gabrielson is on the Kingman storm and has the RFD streaming on his cam right now!

EDIT: Well I guess it is the Reno County storm now..........these things are hauling. He had a really nice RFD notch on his cam and by the time I got back to it he was trying to keep up. Thats gotta be pretty frustrating!!

 

[Dean Baron]

I was watching Tim Jone's stream for a while, a very nice looking wall cloud on the Reno county, KS storm. It didnt take the storm long at all to get a nice little hook/inflow notch. Doesn't look as organized now though. Storms up in Nebraska firing, one tornado reported. Interesting storm motions on the storms in NE, a couple moving northwest...

 

[Jason Harris]

the Reno storm Andy is on just got a meso-marker on GR3 and there's decent rotation on SRV1--looks like the best bet out there right now. I hope he gets a catch!

 

[Eric Treece]

Also lost it. Is there another stream?

I am watching Andys stream at the moment. Best I can say is pick a stream close to the storm you want to see and stick with that. I tried bouncing around between a couple streams and couldn't do it. If I can get onto one stream I don't have any problems.

To make this a legit post.......the Reno storm maybe starting to cycle? Doesn't look as impressive but is still isolated.

 

[Jason Harris]

Looks like the Reno cell might split. Lost the meso marker too.

 

[Dean Baron]

It almost looks like that storm in Harvey county, KS is ready to split in to two...