11/21/07 FCST KY/TN/MS/AL

[Justin E. Reed]

The next frontal system to move into the Mid-South will be a more potent one than the previous front that produced the damaging Kimball, TN tornado. Temperatures will range in the mid to upper 60s in KY, to low to mid 70s in TN, AL, and MS. Marginal DPTs in the 60s and afternoon sunshine will destablize the atmosphere just enough to allow thunderstorms to erupt. Just enough shear in the low to mid levels, accompanied with probable low cloud bases could allow for a few weak tornadoes, similar to the Kimball event. Damaging winds and large hail are more likely, but not a great guarantee. Most of all, this is occuring on the busiest travel day of the year, and this could cause a great deal of interuption to airlines and highways. This is very likely to cause a ripple effect, especially considering Northwest Airlines Memphis operations is the 3rd largest in that airline, Southwest also has a large presence in Nashville. Everyone get ready for a marginal severe day, with a HUGE travel hell day.

SPC Outlook for 21NOV
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

[Dave Gallaher]

As I did on 10/18, I'll be bound for Tuscaloosa on Wednesday--for a gig, not as a planned chase, but I will bring the video cam along just in case. I got lucky that day...

We are scheduled to be interviewed and filmed (in H-D) by a documentary filmmaker, which will most likely take up all the afternoon and evening hours leading to the performance. However, that means that if we get a Tuscaloosa area TOR warning, I'll be doing my best to drag an experienced videographer and a Hi-Def rig out to view it!

 

[beaudodson]

At 9 a.m. we have plenty of rain falling across Western Kentucky. I have heard a clap of thunder or two. Parameters are marginal for severe weather across the KPAH Region. Wind fields right now are pretty much all out of the southwest/west. Wind fields look better across TN and MS at this time. Satellite is showing some clearing across portions of Southern Missouri and Arkansas. This is something SPC noted in their outlooks over the last 24 hours. If we can get a little bit of heating then that is all that would be needed for some November severe weather. Normal CAPE values in this area need to be from around 0 to 500. Dew points above 56-58 degrees. A little bit of heating. Lift index average is around 0 to -1.4 for November-February severe weather.

I will be curious if the SPC leaves the slight risk as is on the next update. With the sun popping out in MO and AR, I figure they won't change it much.