When will it start?

[Justin McGinley]

I dont know if I am posting in the right forum so if it has to me moved I understand. I am getting sick of winter, ready for warmth and some storms. Is anyone seeing anything in the long term models of any moisture being worked north at all and any instability? Just getting some SDS (storm deprived syndrome).

 

[Todd Lemery]

If you go to the web site “Pivotal Weather” and click on models, you’ll have most of the models at your finger tips. It’s user friendly and it won’t take you long to get it down pat!

 

[Paul Knightley]

It sounds like we're almost at the stage of opening a thread to start discussing the upcoming season! Perhaps this is it!

 

[Randy Jennings]

It is a matter of perspective, but in may ways it has already started. There where 87 tornados reported from 1/10 -1/11. Grated it was a QLCS mess. I chased 1/10 and was in 4 tornado warnings, although most exciting thing was power flashes. 5 tornados did confirm in North Texas. It has been warmer than average here and we even had a few days with dews near 70.

At this time of year, I typically look at upper level winds 1st on models. If there is a good trough, I will look at surface dews. If the good sheer and dews overlap, I start watching that day. Just keep in mind that early season setups are usually not a slam dunk. In order to be successful in the early season, you have to try some marginal setups and hope for the best.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I might suggest a "State of the Season" 2020 thread? So far, the SPC, CFS and CPC all hint of no major developments in the immediate future. Looks like the drought will continue out west.

 

[Mark Blue]

Ryan Maue’s weather models found here Weathermodels has a huge selection of the models that go out as far in the future as they generally go. Interpreting the data is a huge task to learn though as some of these models look at data and pressure level differences between Tahiti and Darwin Australia to determine the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which can be an indicator of things to come. They also look at oceanic waves (Kelvin, Rossby, ENSO, and others) to boost their theory as to what the future might hold. I had to subscribe to WeatherBELL Analytics and read the meteorologists’ interpretations for a couple of years to understand what they were thinking and why. I’m going to leave it at that before I look really stupid about my limited knowledge in this arena.

We have several members here who could explain it much better than I. A couple that come to mind are Jeff Duda, Warren Faidley, RDale, Brett Roberts, Kelton Halbert, and others with advanced degrees or experience. If I forgot someone it wasn’t intentional, so I apologize in advance. It’s expensive to join WeatherBell but you do learn a lot, especially from the Joe’s, Bastardi and D’Aleo. Good luck if you go this route!

 

[Warren Faidley]

The simplest way to look for trends might be the NCEP site listed below. I have seen some ST members post excellent long rage forecasts based on the list of data Mark noted above, but I don't recall their names.

ESRL : PSD : NCEP Ensemble Weather Maps

US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Departmant

www.esrl.noaa.gov

 

[adlyons]

Soon my friend soon. We are closing in on Feb and only about 2 months away from tings really starting to pick up. I havent been much into the models or projections for this year but we will know in just a bit. In the meantime breakout youtube and get some videos playing. It helps with the SDS.

 

[JamesCaruso]

For the first time in 12 years, my own ability to take a chase vacation this year is questionable due to work issues/obligations. That would mean no chasing at all, since I don’t live on the Plains and can’t avail myself of individual days here and there.

I won’t know my fate for sure until May gets closer; in some ways, that agonizing uncertainty is even worse than just writing off the year right now, although I guess it’s better to still have some hope, even if just for a shorter trip and/or an off-peak week.

The gnawing uncertainty in some ways makes me not even want to follow the season as it emerges; as the activity starts, especially if it’s looking like an active season, it risks getting my hopes up and makes the uncertainty and possibility of not chasing gnaw at me even more.

Have you guys ever dealt with this, and how do you handle it? When you know you can’t (or might not be able to) chase, do you prefer to just “turn it off” completely to ease the sense of loss and stop agonizing over it, or do you still like to keep an eye on things as the season starts and progresses?

 

[Mark Blue]

You have to hope a system comes to your locale so you don't have much drive time to reach it. Traditionally it has been a hobby where you book your chasecation from the 3rd week in May until the first week in June (give or take), but that's no guarantee anymore of scoring multiple tornadoes day after day. Sorry James but that's the best advice I can think of off hand.

 

[adlyons]

For the first time in 12 years, my own ability to take a chase vacation this year is questionable due to work issues/obligations. That would mean no chasing at all, since I don’t live on the Plains and can’t avail myself of individual days here and there.

I won’t know my fate for sure until May gets closer; in some ways, that agonizing uncertainty is even worse than just writing off the year right now, although I guess it’s better to still have some hope, even if just for a shorter trip and/or an off-peak week.

The gnawing uncertainty in some ways makes me not even want to follow the season as it emerges; as the activity starts, especially if it’s looking like an active season, it risks getting my hopes up and makes the uncertainty and possibility of not chasing gnaw at me even more.

Have you guys ever dealt with this, and how do you handle it? When you know you can’t (or might not be able to) chase, do you prefer to just “turn it off” completely to ease the sense of loss and stop agonizing over it, or do you still like to keep an eye on things as the season starts and progresses?

Unfortunately working in the wx enterprise I dont have the luxury of turning it off. A lot of the chase days I would hit up locally are the ones I've worked from the warning desk side. My situation is a bit more unique but I just try and put it out of my mind. It stinks I know though. I hope you're able to at least get a few days out! My 2018 I moved at the end of may and had basically 0 chances to chase which really stunk.

 

[Warren Faidley]

These maps from the SPC show monthly tornado activity by state. Unless you want to travel to the eastern jungles, the Plains do not generally see any **good** chase days until March, with an exception every few years. I always use the early outbreaks to armchair test apps, forecasting links, radar, etc.

SPC Average Number of Tornadoes per State by Month

 

[Mark Blue]

These maps from the SPC show monthly tornado activity by state. Unless you want to travel to the eastern jungles, the Plains do not generally see any **good** chase days until March, with an exception every few years. I always use the early outbreaks to armchair test apps, forecasting links, radar, etc.

SPC Average Number of Tornadoes per State by Month

Here’s an example of a March event that took place about a month after I joined.
SPC Severe Weather Event Review for Wednesday March 28, 2007. Another event that comes to mind is March 13, 1990. The Hesston F5 was certainly the most memorable but there were other strong tornadoes that day, especially in southern NE. See this thread in the Historical section for further information: 1990-03-13: Hesston Kansas tornado outbreak. These are the two events I recall that occurred in March. If you're interested in looking at historical case studies, Tim Vasquez has a program called Forecast Simulator that will help you understand the conditions in place and the outcome for tons of dates, see here: Storm Forecast Simulator - Weather Graphics.

 

[Justin McGinley]

You know I think I am going to go ahead and put a wager in here. I am going to say the middle to late march. Moderate outbreak Central TX, Central OK, and Southern KS.

 

[B. Dean Berry]

It's likely too early to be throwing dice, but I'm l looking forward to the upcoming season thread, for sure.

 

[Mark Blue]

This discussion on Twitter is closely related to what I referred to when I mentioned WeatherBell earlier in this thread. See here:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1121043239107203073

If you follow certain long-range forecasting experts on social media and just keep your head low until you begin to understand you can see positive signs on a potentially active severe weather season a couple of months in advance.