Weather Dance


Mar 1, 2004
Lansing, MI

  1. Remember it's all about the weather! Your predictions will have nothing to do with basketball after the first round. You are comparing expected high or low temperatures at the participating NCAA campuses on designated game days.
  2. Winners will be based on the maximum and minimum temperatures measured on the game date at the National Weather Service office closest to each participating campus.
  3. You can modify your selection up to 11:59 p.m. ET the day before the scheduled game.
  4. Official selection of which campus was warmer or colder will be made by the University of Michigan based on best available National Weather Service data and will generally be published the day after the game.
  5. One point is earned for each correct selection. All prizes will be awarded based on total correct guesses. In the event multiple participants score the highest total the grand prize winner will be selected randomly from the pool of highest scores from both Men's amd Women's competition. All selections will be final.
  6. "Warmer" temperatures refer to the comparison of the maximum temperatures in the 24 hours that include the game. "Cooler" temperatures refer to the comparison of minimum temperatures in the 24 hours that include the game.
  7. In the event there is a tie in temperarture (including when two teams are in the same town) we will make every effort to pick a winner based on all available data (details of temperatures across cities can be gleaned from additional resources, see example). If the two campuses are still tied after that analysis we will have to go into "overtime" (Read: flip a coin) to pick the winner.
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Sounds like a fun idea. This could still be done in the absence of a basketball tournament.

You could do this using 64 NWS offices and have a “round” every couple of days or once a week or whatever.

The offices could be seeded based on climatology rather than something that’s unrelated to surface temperatures.

The predictions could follow the same rules as the basketball brackets (you have to completely fill out your bracket before the beginning of Round 1). Then you’ll have the challenge of picking which of two offices will be hotter weeks from now that are likely to be very close to the same temperature. We know that Norman, OK will be much hotter than Anchorage, AK; but they won’t meet up in the later rounds. Anchorage will be long gone. Your Championship will be more like Phoenix vs. Miami, and you’re trying to pick the winner a month in advance.

The #1 vs. #16 seeds will be obvious just like in basketball. Everyone’s bracket will start falling apart during the Sweet Sixteen, just like in basketball.
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