Scientists predicted the May tornado outbreak 4 weeks early.
Scientists report that they accurately predicted the nation's extensive tornado outbreak of late May 2019 nearly 4 weeks before it began.
They have done it for several years, and if you notice that more than 3/4ths of their forecasts were verified this year. I think they are on to somethingThe truth is that it will take a few times in a row of hitting it right to move the needle for most people. I hope they are on to something, but it will take several years of replication to know one way or the other.
I agree with both of you to some extent.There's nothing "misleading" about it at all.. Did you read the story?
"From April 28 on, the ERTAF team highlighted the likelihood of an active period of severe weather three to four weeks into the future. The prediction was especially notable given the pre-season expectation of below-average frequencies of U.S. tornadoes due to the presence of weak El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. "
If you look at their forecasts, most of them during the tornado season were for a normal or below normal tornado count. This one they hit hard would be above average, and it was. It's not like they took the ST route and said "OUTBREAK" every time the GFS 18Z 360hr run had a high CAPE