Summary of useful reading in predicting initiation in the open warm sector


May 15, 2013
Denver, CO
Focus has often been presented on initiation along boundaries however I was wondering if what material may have been produced studying initiation in the open warm sector, surely I will search google and such for the topic however has anyone seen good material on the subject?

Jeff Duda

EF6+, PhD
Staff member
Oct 7, 2008
Broomfield, CO
That's a great topic of discussion that, indeed - to my knowledge - has not been extensively studied or focused on. It seems to be a pretty rare occurrence and requires very specific and rare circumstances, namely a near-zero CIN environment with sufficient PBL mixing (or sufficient low-level WAA/isentropic lift) to get parcels going. While WAA/isentropic lift often generates precipitation and convective storms, it often times occurs north of a surface boundary, and given the synoptic nature, usually results in widespread development. Getting convective storms to fire south of a surface boundary AND in an area with very low CIN AND with low spatial coverage is much less likely.