State of the Chase Season 2023

[Jamie H]

It's interesting that the SSW was mentioned as I did wonder too. In Europe it can bring in cold northerly or easterly winds because the Atlantic jetstream gets disrupted in its flow, which might also then have had an effect on the cold weather in the USA.

 

[Jason N]

Latest CPC seasonal drought prediction. Appears to be some fairly good news for portions of the central and northern plains.

 

[T Wells]

https://www.weather.gov/media/abq/Briefings/2023SpringOutlook.pdf

While not specifically about severe weather this is a presentation from NWS ABQ with their expectations for the spring in New Mexico. Possibly some improvement in the drought conditions. Below is a copy/paste of the last page of the presentation with their expectations for this spring.

March: Forecast confidence is high for above average precipitation and near to slightly
below average temperatures

April: Forecast confidence is moderate for average to slightly above average
precipitation and slightly above average temperatures

May: Forecast confidence is moderate for near average precipitation and slightly above
to above average temperatures

Severe Weather: Confidence is moderate to high severe thunderstorm activity will be
near average, and well above last year’s amount

 

[adlyons]

Just as an aside, It's great to see all the discussion on this board for the season so far. Thanks to everybody who has chimed in or stopped to read through things!

Heres a quick update from CPC on their spring forecast.



Honestly, I cant find much to complain about as a chaser for this general pattern. There remains hints of western and central US troughing through April and May on the ensemble climate models. CPC seems to be betting on that signal with much cooler anomalies noted over the PAC NW and western CONUS where California has been getting slammed. We remain above average on tornado counts early this year despite March slowing down a bit. However, the next few weeks show several potential systems. We only need 1 or 2 more decent tornado days to finish March at or above average.

 

[Jeff Duda]

That MJO pulse I described in my previous post appears to be collapsing as it evolves through phase 1, so perhaps nothing will end up coming of that.

However, the recent temperature and precip outlooks from CPC, which have been really consistent the past month or so, is a bit dreamy for Plains chasing...if it were May. In March, it's probably a tad early.

 

[adlyons]

That MJO pulse I described in my previous post appears to be collapsing as it evolves through phase 1, so perhaps nothing will end up coming of that.

However, the recent temperature and precip outlooks from CPC, which have been really consistent the past month or so, is a bit dreamy for Plains chasing...if it were May. In March, it's probably a tad early.

View attachment 23507 View attachment 23508

Jeff, you stole my thought "if only this were May!"

 

[Jason N]

Jeff, could you expound on the MJO as to why some phases will shift more rapidly, while other times, the phases will stagnate and remain for longer periods. what other processes effect the speed or transitions of phasing.

 

[Mike Smith]

FWIW, the chiclets (from 00Z last night, the latest available) are showing a pretty strong signal for the 25th and 26th. 12Z ECMWF has a strong signal. The new Canadian has a moderate signal for those days The GFS has the weakest signal (in terms of QPF) of the three, at least as far as the Great Plains, are concerns.

The Canadian has a strong, but low amplitude short wave. The ECMWF has a strong short wave in the southern stream.

Since this is a Sat-Mon period, it might be worth special attention.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Jeff, could you expound on the MJO as to why some phases will shift more rapidly, while other times, the phases will stagnate and remain for longer periods. what other processes effect the speed or transitions of phasing.

Honestly...no...I cannot. I don't know the MJO well enough to comment on that. Sorry!

 

[Jason N]

haha no worries Jeff! you definitely know your stuff, so that's why I asked you first.

 

[Jeff Duda]

The source of my information is this article, which should be free to view: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50522

 

[Jason N]

Thanks for posting that, what a great way to see those relationships. The only thing I didn't notice was whether their conclusions/results of Apr/May Tornado days related to MJO phase happened under La Nina, Neutral, or El Nino conditions? or was it irrespective of it. I searched the document and couldn't find a reference to it, so I assume they didn't consider it? or perhaps those ENSO drivers weren't of significance to this particular study. Still really interesting.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

It's looking like this active pattern will continue as we close out March and move into April. Starting to see signs that the plains might start to come alive, as early as next Thursday, and then another system around April 3-4. Fingers crossed.

 

[john heyden]

Hi,

I am John from the Netherlands. member of a chasingclub overhere. But I folow each year also the tornado chases iin Tornado Alley via internet.. A few of the mebers of mmine weatherclub have been chasing in the USA as well. for example withe Cloud9 tours. Next year a few of them fly to Tornado Alley as well, succes chasing!!

John

 

[john heyden]

Hello all, good afternoon!

Is this chart for now or for later today/evening?

 

[Mark Gressman Jr]

@john heyden - That would be this morning's Outlook. It was updated at 1630Z, and upgraded.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Hello all, good afternoon!

Is this chart for now or for later today/evening?

John - The SPC outlooks are designed to be valid from 12Z (UTC/GMT) - 1159Z. In the US, that's 7AM Central Daylight Time to 6:59 CDT the next day.

The initial outlook for each day is scheduled at 06Z (1 AM CDT), or six hours before it becomes valid or the "active" forecast.

 

[john heyden]

Thanks for your replies guys!

The problem I am facing is that it is very early in the morning in The Netherlands at the time the heaviest storms break out normaly in Tornado Alley etc..


Have fun and succes!!

John.

John.

 

[adlyons]

Quick update as of today.

Looks like my prediction of an above-average March is in a bit of danger. While we have had several severe events, the tornado efficiency has been lower than expected. With 4 days left to go, we are sitting at a prelim count of 60 confirmed tornadoes with the average from the last 25 years at 84 for the month. The events from the 24th and the 26th underperformed (coverage not intensity) from what was forecast. Looks like there is a chance we can get closer to the average in the last few days of the Month (30/31st).

 

[Jason N]

30th looks kinda thin, at the moment anyway, but that could change on successive model runs. 31st looks a little more promising at the moment over Iowa .

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

Somebody sees something coming.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Reed Timmer has lost most of his credibility with me. Unless he has calmed down over the past few years...he thinks everything is the worst thing we've ever seen.

I would think if he was trying to be serious about discussing a pattern beyond the medium range, he would be showing tools that reflect those forecasts rather than one deterministic model's output at a time that shows a trough.

Here's a good example: https://atlas.niu.edu/forecast/scp/gefs_scp_stda_chiclet.png

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

Ive been sent that screen shot by 2 different family members. Whether that factually or not remains to be seen. I am not nearly as bullish. I would take rain over a large portion of the state however.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Reed Timmer has lost most of his credibility with me. Unless he has calmed down over the past few years...he thinks everything is the worst thing we've ever seen.

I would think if he was trying to be serious about discussing a pattern beyond the medium range, he would be showing tools that reflect those forecasts rather than one deterministic model's output at a time that shows a trough.

Here's a good example: https://atlas.niu.edu/forecast/scp/gefs_scp_stda_chiclet.png

Reed never met a marginal risk that wasn't the mother of all outbreaks, lol. So I agree that doesn't mean much, even though he's not wrong in that the deterministic models do seem to agree on an active pattern forthcoming. Much remains to be sorted out, but it's better than a giant desert Death Ridge or endless series of Arctic highs pouring cold air into the eastern half of the country.

Recent years have not been kind to chasers who have stuck by the old "wait for May" adage, so I strongly recommend to chase the setups as they present themselves if you have the means to do so.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I would think if he was trying to be serious about discussing a pattern beyond the medium range, he would be showing tools that reflect those forecasts rather than one deterministic model's output at a time that shows a trough.

Not only does he show just “one deterministic model's output at a time that shows a trough,” but it doesn’t even show the valid date/time!

And no, he has not calmed down, I won’t even watch his videos anymore after listening to him screaming in last year’s Andover tornado and Friday’s Rolling Fork tornado.