I think it’s a logical extension of the topic. If we are to evaluate what we perceive to be a meaningful decrease in the number of good chase years in the past decade, it is reasonable to ask whether that correlates with climate change, or just reflects normal distribution across the years, i.e. a trough in activity that we have also seen in past decades like the 1980s.It seems that this "State of chase season 2021" thread has turned into a thread about historical evidence of global warming. That would be a good topic for a new thread.
Well said, and reminds me of a quote I saved from @Brett Roberts from last year: “Plains storm chasing may now be a less sensible obsession than its short history of wide participation (i.e., the 1980s-2010) had perhaps led us to believe.”All of this is not to say that there won't be a rogue career day in June for some of us, but we're looking at the overall pattern. And the overall pattern is enough to make you choose a different hobby.
I disagree that we have evidence that S&V tornadoes are becoming less frequent. I'm not saying that you are wrong. I am saying that I don't feel the tornado data is trustworthy enough. Tornadoes prior to the Fujita scale (1970s) were "back rated" from news and other reports. Toss them out and the trendline flattens. I also heard that in the 1980s a high rating on a tornado required extra forms and a review from above, so raters leaned toward lower ratings. Finally, the EF scale raised the bar for high end tornadoes (e.g., El Reno was an EF3 because no damage indicators above EF3).Clearly, with warmer global temperatures, violent tornadoes are less frequent. See nearby graph. View attachment 21596
The increasing number in the South and Southeast are likely temporary and part of the somewhat cyclical pattern first documented by Ted Fujita. There Is Nothing New About the Hypothesis Tornado Alley Has Moved East
"Is climate change affecting chasing? Absolutely. Is it eliminating chasing? I don't know, and I'm far enough removed from my studies to call myself an expert anymore."
Awesome, going to add that to my “notable and quotable“ notebook, along with the lines from Brett Roberts and Brett Nickeson that I quoted above. Perfect expressions of the angst of this unfortunate avocation we have chosen, or that chose us...Yet another year of watching the days roll by as the "Severe Weather Climatology" maps on the SPC site turn a deep vermillion over the Plains and Midwest while literally nothing happens
I'm also heading out this weekend. I rely heavily on local NWS forecast discussions this time of year. More than one location is using the "T-word" for the extended. I've found over the years that local offices are much better at forecasting their own weather over other sources, including social media -- where the season has been declared DOA. This is especially true in E. NM, SE CO and the Texas Panhandle where jiggy storms appear out of thin air and drop tubes with 35kt. shear. I'm also not buying some of the extended 500mb forecasts. I'll worry about the cap and LCL's later. Good luck!I have decided I am not going to gamble to see if Late May or June things turn around. I am heading out from Phoenix Saturday to chase anything that happens the first half of next week. A bare bones LP supercell in the Texas panhandle would make me very happy.
Does it really end if it never began?There may also be some NW flow events (e.g. late season) that will have to be watched carefully. The big question is if the season will suddenly end after this run of events, as the NCEP Ensembles are trying to set up a summer pattern during the last week in May. I'm not buying it yet, but the rule in this drought climatology is to chase when you can.
The 22nd onward is starting to look pretty interesting. Especially if the 0z Euro is to be believed. Best run we've had in awhile and a few other models are showing signs as well.We are heading out this weekend for much of next week (at least the first half anyway). I'm currently eyeing the SUN-WED time-frame for the best potential of severe especially over the TX Panhandle into Southern//Western Oklahoma. After mid-week though, things diverge and there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the pattern. At least most global models are showing *something* to chase for a few days, it certainly looked worse a few days ago. Originally we were planning a week+ (10 day) long trip, but we decided that it doesn't make sense to just drive around and spend money on motels with nothing going on for extended periods. If the pattern dies mid-week, probably will come back home, recharge, and look forward to the next uptick in activity .
The 12z gfs is beginning to phase the cutoff and the trough is digging deeper it appears. Personally I feel potential has a higher ceiling for the latter time frame you mentioned. There will certainly be chase days next week, I would just rather roll the dice on a trough instead of cutoff chasing personally.Great news above about 5/22 forward. My trip is locked in for that timeframe so I have avoided looking too far ahead. Nothing I can do about it, no flexibility to go this week instead, so just have to deal with it for better or worse. If I could, I would probably go out weeks of 5/15 and 5/22, instead of 5/22 and 5/29. Only decision now is whether 5/22 looks good enough to justify missing my daughters’ dance recital, but I don’t need to make that call quite yet.