State of the chase season 2020

Jan 7, 2006
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Not a whole lot to like about heading into winter with a spatially expansive western drought and enso drifting back into a weak nina, neither of which seem to bode well for the following plains season. Years that headed into the winter with these conditions were overwhelmingly poor(notable examples from the past decade include 2018, 2014, 2012, and 2017 to an extent) and do not have me optimistic for good plains activity in 2021. Weak ninas seem to favor BA plains activity in general, whether or not drought is present during the preceding winter. This is the earliest I think I've ever really talked about an upcoming season and as such, this is a very obtuse analysis that is barely scientific, but something I thought might be worth sharing regardless.

Those are the key features I'm watching over the winter. How the nina evolves(where I think a stronger nina probably ends up being better in general) and the extent of the drought. My guess is that due to the nina, no matter it's strength, the current expansive drought struggles to weaken and probably expands markedly, but who knows.
Agreed. There have been quite a few years with weakly to moderately cool ENSO during the winter-spring timeframe since 2000, and they have largely been bad news. Of course, some possibility of a stronger La Nina remains, which would probably be preferable. Unfortunately, I agree that drought is likely to persist and potentially expand across the southern and central Plains during the cool season, tipping the scales in favor of 2021 being an I-35 type of chase season on the Plains.
 
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Warren Faidley

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May 7, 2006
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On top of this, the global models suggest this odd pattern will displace / weaken the Atlantic high and keep the current batch of waves (or eventually tropical storms) away from US coastlines for at least the next 10+ days. It's only a guess, but most of September could see a much lower tropical threat that originally forecast.
 

Jeff House

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Later this week looked possible Mid South a couple days ago. That mid-latitude trough is pretty much DOA now. Maybe IA/IL but too far.

Following week to 10 days those in Dixie could hope for recurving TCs, but if they form that deep in the Atlantic, plenty of chances to get caught by a trough before approaching. After mid-September climo strongly drops Western Gulf, and Dixie TC remnants.

La Nina (alone) has a poor correlation with spring severe. However the TNI Trans Nino Index has shown promise. If the Central Tropical Pac stays cool but right near South America starts to warm, it is a +TNI and somewhat correlated with AN severe.

Given the current and forecast long-wave patterns I've become pretty bearish 2020 fall, until deep winter Deep South. That's junk, so yeah I'm desperately grasping for things like TNI next spring.

Sorry for the unusually bearish post. At least sports is back!
 
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