Agreed. There have been quite a few years with weakly to moderately cool ENSO during the winter-spring timeframe since 2000, and they have largely been bad news. Of course, some possibility of a stronger La Nina remains, which would probably be preferable. Unfortunately, I agree that drought is likely to persist and potentially expand across the southern and central Plains during the cool season, tipping the scales in favor of 2021 being an I-35 type of chase season on the Plains.Not a whole lot to like about heading into winter with a spatially expansive western drought and enso drifting back into a weak nina, neither of which seem to bode well for the following plains season. Years that headed into the winter with these conditions were overwhelmingly poor(notable examples from the past decade include 2018, 2014, 2012, and 2017 to an extent) and do not have me optimistic for good plains activity in 2021. Weak ninas seem to favor BA plains activity in general, whether or not drought is present during the preceding winter. This is the earliest I think I've ever really talked about an upcoming season and as such, this is a very obtuse analysis that is barely scientific, but something I thought might be worth sharing regardless.
Those are the key features I'm watching over the winter. How the nina evolves(where I think a stronger nina probably ends up being better in general) and the extent of the drought. My guess is that due to the nina, no matter it's strength, the current expansive drought struggles to weaken and probably expands markedly, but who knows.