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Thanks Mark. Nope right now I'm all good on the FE side from 5/23 through 6/8. It's more the work side of things. I only have two weeks, so if I'm out starting next Thursday, I may need to be back at work by Thursday 6/6 instead of staying until the weekend. Still, a bird in hand is worth two in the bush as they say, if there are any opportunities at all next Thursday/Friday I intend to take them and worry about June later.June my friend usually produces some great events. Hopefully that isn't chock full of FEs for you.
I generally avoid potentially depressing myself with long-range forecasting while I am on my chase vacation. I don’t even look at SPC Day 4-8. I try to just take it one day at a time, until I am coming down to the last 3-5 days of my trip, at which point I’ll check to see if it is even worth staying or if I should go home early and save the money / vacation time. However, just reading various offices’ AFDs, I am seeing mention of renewed western troughing starting next weekend. How does that reconcile with what the ensembles are showing?The longer range ensembles are in good agreement that after this last trough swings through, there will be rising heights across the southern U.S. with a tendency for more ridging over the Southern Plains. You have to wonder if the season really quiets down, or if you get a few more troughs to swing through before the ridge becomes firmly established. We've had a good run, even if the chases have been challenging. I think we have at least three more solid chase days coming up between today and Tuesday. Beyond that, it's a bit more unclear, but at the very least, the second half of this week should be tame in comparison to last week.