This confluent jet pattern over the wester CONUS is just making the future evolution of the pattern over the east super sensitive to initial conditions. Strong zonal 850hpa baroclinicity but very ill-defined jet pattern upstream just spells low forecast skill it seems. Can only pray that closed SE low dragging northerlies to the Gulf doesn’t appear again in later runs. I get spooked when both the GFS and ECMWF happen to show it on the same run.Yes, this constant pattern "flip-flopping" is not impressing me -- GFS, ECMWF, etc. The NCEP Ensemble is pretty solid until about May 10. It's still way too early to say either way, although I'm starting to think plan X33 (Northeastern Colorado chase year) could be a reality, unless the moisture gets pushed to the Equator... then it's plan H33 (hurricane season).
Edit. After a momentary loss of consciousness, the 18z GFS has swung back to keeping the moisture in place for the mid+ May period.
I've found this to almost always be the case whenever a specific pattern change(either positive or negative) is modeled in the longer range(3-5+ weeks). In almost every case, models are too zealous in breaking down the current pattern, which holds on longer than anticipated. Usually, the advertised long range pattern change comes at some point, but just in a smaller degree and later than was initially modeled (Unfortunately, I don't really know why this is the case, but have noticed that it often is). These pattern changes can also be staggered for eternity and eventually disappear(a la 2018). Though I agree with the majority in thinking that the show starts when we get that Pacific jet extension ---> I'm optimistic for mid/late May.The supposed pattern change keeps getting pushed back.
Hi, Jörg.We will be flying to Denver May 8th and have 14 days net for chasing. SPC is now mentioning the possibility of zonal flow through next weekend. I hope we will see a return to western troughing by the time we arrive. By Thursday next week I might start to believe what GFS and ECMWF show for the time of our arrival.
You do if you live in the GL and would like it to not be 50s and showery when it's almost June...and would also like some local/regional setups to chase.The 11-15 day forecast looks excellent this morning. Some GL troughing is noted, probably due to West Pac. However, the IO induced jet extension is on track. Should favor the Southwest trough as well. So, by late May we don't stress over GL troughs. We chase Southwest troughs coming into the Plains. I'm feeling great about May 17+.
Might have to wait for a La Nina spring for that. Good instability in the southern GL is hard to come by without a strong SE ridge. Gulf-Coast riding mega-MCS always does a number on instability east of the Mississippi. By late June we can generate good instability locally over the corn belt, but by then you have to prey the dynamics haven't gone to shit.You do if you live in the GL and would like it to not be 50s and showery when it's almost June...and would also like some local/regional setups to chase.