The first week in May is looking increasingly interesting with multiple day set-ups and forecast soundings hinting of at least one PDS set-up.
Looking at the individual runs, the GFS definitely went to crap for this Sunday/Monday compared to multiple runs that were good up to a couple of days ago. Euro had 60s dews/high CAPE up into Kansas on Sunday, and that's been pushed south quite a bit on last night's run, which is more in line with the change the GFS showed. I've gone back to being pessimistic for at least the near term. Maybe it will end up being more towards mid May before it gets consistently better.The optimistic view of the most recent posts is at odds with the ERTAF, which shows Below Average for next week. That forecast was from Sunday 4/21, have things changed that much since then, and if so isn’t it too soon to consider it a model trend?
I agree. Will likely stay put until at least mid-MayIm losing faith in next week. The GFS and EURO are both trending towards an awful surface pattern characterized by sloppy, strung out lows and a sagging frontal boundary that reaches the gulf with 50s dews by May 4th. Even with 30+ kts of westerly flow I can't get excited with such an awful surface pattern.
Sure, you can hope for a random mesoscale accident somewhere or the caprock pulling a rabbit out of its hat with upper 50s/low 60s dews but other than that. I don't think next week will be the dream tornado pattern we were once hoping for. Beyond that things still look to improve so Im overall optimistic, I just think we'll have to wait a little bit longer.