State of the Chase Season: 2017 Edition

Discussion in 'Advanced weather & chasing' started by James Gustina, Apr 14, 2017.

  1. Jeff House

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    Chase vacationers should give the models a couple more days. Some of the ensemble members are more bullish than the op models. While the Euro is off and on, its ensembles have a large minority more bullish than the op. Majority still follow the op, but it could change. Now I hate cherry picking members; I only mention because it is large 35-45% minority I am watching.

    When I write more bullish members, I mainly refer to slower and/or farther south 500/200 mb troughs. I am also looking at surface low and/or lee trough placements. While too early to look at the LLJ, I do seek consistent. As we get inside 7 days it is harder to wish-cast a major deepening of the trough. However one can expect op model changes for two or three more days, and of course details will keep changing until the event(s).

    If all else fails save that chase vacation for the Great American Eclipse. From what I hear a total solar eclipse will make it all better.
     
  2. Andy Wehrle

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    Well, I went ahead and took Monday morning off to keep open the option of chasing in the northern or central Plains Sunday evening. Whether I actually go or not remains to be seen. It continues to look darn near gorgeous on the GFS if you just look at the CAPE and surface pattern, but at 500mb things get a lot more iffy. The trough hangs back well to the west and the 500mb southwesterlies are 25-35kt at best over the warm sector. The big question is, do the favorable factors (namely CAPE and low-level directional shear) compensate resulting in slow-moving, easily chaseable supercells, or do you have insufficient mid-level shear and thus disorganized, marginally severe multicells?

    Capping also remains a concern although I think it should be breakable at least in some areas. I'd rather have that than too little cap and everything going up at once in a convective mess which we have seen all too often thus far this year. Low-level directional shear, SRH and hodograph critical angles look excellent along the warm front and near the triple point, which is another thing that has been lacking in many setups we've seen this year.

    Anyone remember what the 500mb winds and capping looked like on Bowdle day? As I recall, that was a pretty low-key risk setup (slight/5%) that paid off big time. I don't recall 500 mb winds being that strong on Dodge City or Chapman day last year, either.

    Monday is pretty much my only option since I'd be a huge jerk asking my coworkers to take extra days or work shorthanded again more than that so soon after what was supposed to be my chasecation, so any potentially better days later in the week are off the table for me until/unless something presents itself locally as the trough ejects toward the upper Midwest toward next Thursday/Friday/Saturday.
     
  3. chrisbray

    chrisbray EF4

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    Per http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20100522
    It shows 12z and 00z 500mbs winds at70/60 knots over SD. It was a slight risk but with 10% tornado, and would have been enhanced if it existed back then.
     
  4. Jeff House

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    I would chase the Dakotas Sunday and Monday from Wisconsin. What is it 5-6 hours out and back? (not including chasing) Last year Kansas festivities were with modest 500/200 flow but good boundaries and LLJ. Friday may be Manitoba and Saturday between waves.

    Sunday and Monday shortwaves should eject from the Pac NW trough both days. Surface low is shown in SD but so is the cap. ND is not capped but could be cool sector. Reality is thunderstorms should go near the surface low, whether it is warm front or triple point. Might be HP; might get undercut; or, might be lovely. While maybe not worth the trip from Tennessee, I think it is worth it from Wisconsin.

    Tuesday and beyond could stay active, but details are way up in the air. Timing and location is all over the place. However I think Sunday Monday is a Dakotas call. Good luck!

    Edit for below: Euro also has Kansas going Tuesday when the wave ejects. Watching...
     
  5. Dan Robinson

    Dan Robinson WxLibrary Editor
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    I think we're going to have to take these setups day-by-day - June CAPE isn't something I feel confident writing off despite an iron EML. The GFS has broken out precip down into Kansas on Tuesday when the wave ejects, for what that's worth!
     
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  6. chrisbray

    chrisbray EF4

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    Ah, but worth the 12 hour drive from Chicago to North Dakota? That's where I am at currently. We don't want to commit to the Dakotas for a maybe play on Sunday and Monday, and then a maybe play in Kansas Tuesday. Probably gonna keep putting off decision making until Saturday.
     
  7. Todd Lemery

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    I can understand the bitterness James. If you don't go, how would it feel to have bailed out on the seeing the most photogenic tornado of 2017? We all live with regrets in our life and if you could live with that, staying home with your family would be the best option I believe. It probably won't happen, but if it does, it'd be something you'd have to square up with.
     
  8. Stan Rose

    Stan Rose EF4

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    Agreed, although it is a matter of degree...the models definitely choke on these cap breaking scenarios--tomorrow is the classic example, 12z 3k NAM had nothing down south, then 18Z breaks out serious twisting updrafts in KS! This is at 12 deg C at H7 however; by Friday it is 17 deg C and everything is pretty much toast ;)
     
  9. JeremyS

    JeremyS EF2

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    I'm becoming more interested in Sunday as a good warm front play looks to be setting up. Recent runs have focused across central Minnesota. Otherwise at least on the GFS the cap remains a big issue in the warm sector as 700mb temps of 14-17C are there especially Saturday through Monday.
    For me I feel 14C is the point I give up realistic hope of something happening, but of course I've still chased on those days probably too many times


    Sent from my iPhone using Stormtrack
     
    #134 JeremyS, Jun 7, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2017

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