Severe weather for Oklahoma this Friday???!!

Craig Maire II

STILL SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION MARK CONCERNING POPS/TSTM POTENTIAL
ON FRIDAY. GFS STILL FORECASTING RATHER LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS/LIFT HOWEVER
EXPECTED WITH UPPER SYSTEM...AS LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 110 KT UPPER JET
SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY 12Z FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THEN
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE AND/OR COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST PRECP CHANCES ACROSS NW ARK. VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY POSE A SEVERE THREAT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/VERY LARGE HAIL. STAY TUNED.
 

Matthew Hatton

look like an evening tuned to Weathertap for me then. Seems to me to be a situation to be prepared being so early in the season.

Stay safe.
 
Dec 8, 2003
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Calera, AL
This could be a good tune-up armchair chase, but I'm not getting baited into going down south this early in the season. I won't even go down there in March! :)

Regards,

Mike
 
Dec 4, 2003
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Eta now just beginning to pick this up. Looks like serious moisture deficiencies so far, with about the only real hope being in the western half of Arkansas Friday evening. Omega and surface convergence are both quite stout though.

Tim