Discussion in 'Advanced weather & chasing' started by Jacob Hernandez, Mar 9, 2018.
May 25, Southern Nebraska/ Central Kansas/ North Central Oklahoma. 1090 total tornadoes.
Last call for entries to the contest. It’ll run until March 31st at midnight. For those who have missed the total number of tornadoes, the state(s), or the exact date for the first High Risk, please contact a staff member so we can edit your post with the missing information by the deadline or not long after (couple of days). At stake is a $100.00 gift card to Amazon, B&H, or Newegg (winner’s choice) and bragging rights for a year.
We’ll put together the rules in the near future and post them here. I’d like for the OP @Jacob Hernandez to provide some input in the other thread where we’ve been discussing these items found here.
May 10th Kansas and Oklahoma
No high risk
765 tornadoes, high risk in early April in TN/MS/AR
Well although we have had a quiet start, (We all remember how in 2011 one day can change all of that) I would expect that we still will have a very active year ending up with tornado totals of approx. 1100 with the first High Risk on April 25 over SE Oklahoma and W Arkansas. Never tried predicting something this exact lol.
May 5th in OK fir first high risk
Let's go 932 tornadoes for the entire year and April 30 in AR for the first high risk.
893 tornadoes. First high risk, April 12th Texas.
1026 tornadoes and first High Risk on May 16th in Oklahoma
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With my vast knowledge of tornado history during La Nina, which means "tiny margarita", I call 1002 verified tornadoes and one HR in LA/MS on May 7th
860 count and June 2nd in NE/IA
April 27th Oklahoma and Arkansas. 925 tornadoes.
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827 Verified and 1st High on 4/28/18. Forecasting persistence from the last Post La Nina year, 2014. Also CFS starts to ramp up right around April 28th so it seems like a good guess. If we get a repeat of 2014, Dixie Alley gets hit in late April, we get one or two good days in the central plains in early May, then everything shifts into Nebraska / IA northern plains from early June all the way into July.
1305 tornadoes. May 2nd for High Risk (just plucking a date out the air, as there isn't really any other way!).