Predict the Number of Tornadoes and First high Risk of 2018

Discussion in 'Advanced weather & chasing' started by Jacob Hernandez, Mar 9, 2018.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Jacob Hernandez

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2015
    Messages:
    15
    Likes Received:
    18
    Barring a massive change in the next day or so, it seems we will start 2018 somewhat calm (especially compared to 2017). From what I understand, La Nina years tend to have a higher tornado count than average and an earlier peak of the severe storm season (late April - mid May vs normally mid to late May). As we enter what is hopefully the last lull in the severe storm season until summer, I thought it would be fun to try our hand and predicting tornadoes this year. For this, please enter:

    #1 Total Number of Tornadoes in 2018.
    Estimate the final tally produced by the SPC on this page: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/adj.html.

    #2 The Date of the First High Risk in 2018.

    This will be the date that the SPC issues it's first high risk forecast. Pretty self explanatory.
    For added fun, name at least ONE state that will be affected by the high risk.
    If you want to be real intense, put your predicted high risk on a map.

    Let's run this until either April 1st or if the first high risk is issued in March.

    For my entry I predict:

    1169 total tornadoes
    the first high risk will be issued April 9th in MS/AL
     
    • Like Like x 1
  2. Jeff House

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2008
    Messages:
    344
    Likes Received:
    163
    1100 tornadoes
    November 2 Mississippi or somewhere in Dixie

    I am afraid La Nina might break down faster than the CFS shows. I would love to be wrong and have a great Plains season.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  3. Mark Blue

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2007
    Messages:
    2,582
    Likes Received:
    232
    1276

    Oklahoma
    4/27/18
     
    • Like Like x 1
  4. Dan Robinson

    Dan Robinson WxLibrary Editor
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2011
    Messages:
    2,068
    Likes Received:
    1,468
    900 tornadoes.
    1st High Risk first week of April in MO, IL, AR, KY.
    I'll chase near the surface low north of STL (just outside of the moderate risk), and hopefully score a tube or two.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    #4 Dan Robinson, Mar 9, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2018
  5. John Farley

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2004
    Messages:
    1,331
    Likes Received:
    292
    950 tornadoes, and no High Risk in 2018. No High Risk doesn't bother me; I never have much luck on those days anyway.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  6. Brandon Centeno

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2015
    Messages:
    73
    Likes Received:
    47
    Breakdown of Nina actually favors enhanced tornado activity over the southern plains, according to research.

    For me:
    1150 tornadoes. Several very active periods.

    First high risk: final week of April or first week of May; states involved will include OK and KS.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  7. Bruce Torrens

    Bruce Torrens Lurker

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2017
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    2
    1617 tornadoes in 2018, falling just a few score shy of the 2011 number. First High Risk April 10 for parts of western and central TN/northeastern MS/northern and central Alabama.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  8. Warren Faidley

    Joined:
    May 7, 2006
    Messages:
    1,165
    Likes Received:
    390
    876 tornadoes

    First high risk May 19 OKC area.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  9. Todd Lemery

    Supporter

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2014
    Messages:
    378
    Likes Received:
    294
    1213 tornados and May 22nd for first High Risk in Kansas.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  10. Ben Holcomb

    Ben Holcomb Digital Janitor
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2008
    Messages:
    1,098
    Likes Received:
    650
    1047 tornadoes, April 16 in OK/KS
     
    • Like Like x 1
  11. Harrison Cater

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2016
    Messages:
    26
    Likes Received:
    65
    1175 tornadoes, April 10th AR/MS/TN
     
  12. twista

    Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2013
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    2
    1,088 twisters (Ben Holcombs message count so far today) high risk third week of April in MS/AL
     
  13. Alex Elmore

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2015
    Messages:
    87
    Likes Received:
    75
    1,100 tornadoes and no High Risk in 2018.
     
  14. Jeff Duda

    Jeff Duda Resident meteorological expert
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2008
    Messages:
    2,790
    Likes Received:
    1,140
    1166 tornadoes in 2018
    no high risk
     
  15. Mark Blue

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2007
    Messages:
    2,582
    Likes Received:
    232
    See this thread to discuss ideas on making this a bonafide contest with a $100.00 gift card and bragging rights at stake.
     
  16. Jason Boggs

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2013
    Messages:
    367
    Likes Received:
    269
    987 Tornadoes
    1st HIGH RISK will be on June 11th in Eastern Oklahoma/Western Arkansas
     
  17. Devin Pitts

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2016
    Messages:
    108
    Likes Received:
    103
    1001 Tornadoes
    1st High Risk in Central Kansas/OK. May 23rd.
     
  18. Timothy Schaffer

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2010
    Messages:
    28
    Likes Received:
    2
    1112 tornadoes
    April 20 Alabama
     
  19. Jeff Smith

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2006
    Messages:
    202
    Likes Received:
    10
    1249 tornadoes.
    1st High risk April 28 OK/Ks
     
  20. Jeff House

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2008
    Messages:
    344
    Likes Received:
    163
    Yes that's right. I got two of my TNI phases backwards. Note to self: Read the papers again before posting in Advanced Weather.

    Thank you for renewing my optimism! If we can get Nino 1-2 to warm up a bit the TNI will be bullish.
    Guess I'll keep my crazy Dixie Alley prediction since anything can happen. However I plan to chase the Plains.
     
  21. Michael Snyder

    Joined:
    May 16, 2011
    Messages:
    231
    Likes Received:
    189
    1280 Windy Spin Devils
    May 10th High risk
     
  22. Michael Towers

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2007
    Messages:
    240
    Likes Received:
    60
    975 tornadoes
    1st High Risk April 12 MS/AL
     
  23. Jonathan Beeson

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2015
    Messages:
    50
    Likes Received:
    36
    1,150 tornadoes

    First high risk April 29th MS/AL
     
  24. FalettiWx

    FalettiWx EF0

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2014
    Messages:
    33
    Likes Received:
    84
    967 tornadoes
    No high risks.
     
  25. ChristofferB

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2009
    Messages:
    134
    Likes Received:
    18
    850 tornadoes.

    May 5th will obviously be the first High Risk day with a bullseye over west/central OK.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice