Predict the Number of Tornadoes and First high Risk of 2018

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Apr 21, 2015
Barring a massive change in the next day or so, it seems we will start 2018 somewhat calm (especially compared to 2017). From what I understand, La Nina years tend to have a higher tornado count than average and an earlier peak of the severe storm season (late April - mid May vs normally mid to late May). As we enter what is hopefully the last lull in the severe storm season until summer, I thought it would be fun to try our hand and predicting tornadoes this year. For this, please enter:

#1 Total Number of Tornadoes in 2018.
Estimate the final tally produced by the SPC on this page:

#2 The Date of the First High Risk in 2018.

This will be the date that the SPC issues it's first high risk forecast. Pretty self explanatory.
For added fun, name at least ONE state that will be affected by the high risk.
If you want to be real intense, put your predicted high risk on a map.

Let's run this until either April 1st or if the first high risk is issued in March.

For my entry I predict:

1169 total tornadoes
the first high risk will be issued April 9th in MS/AL
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Reactions: Mike Marz
Apr 5, 2015
Norman, OK
1100 tornadoes
November 2 Mississippi or somewhere in Dixie

I am afraid La Nina might break down faster than the CFS shows. I would love to be wrong and have a great Plains season.
Breakdown of Nina actually favors enhanced tornado activity over the southern plains, according to research.

For me:
1150 tornadoes. Several very active periods.

First high risk: final week of April or first week of May; states involved will include OK and KS.

Bruce Torrens

Feb 2, 2017
Nashville, TN
1617 tornadoes in 2018, falling just a few score shy of the 2011 number. First High Risk April 10 for parts of western and central TN/northeastern MS/northern and central Alabama.
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Reactions: Mike Marz
Jun 1, 2008
Chattanooga, TN
Yes that's right. I got two of my TNI phases backwards. Note to self: Read the papers again before posting in Advanced Weather.

Thank you for renewing my optimism! If we can get Nino 1-2 to warm up a bit the TNI will be bullish.
Breakdown of Nina actually favors enhanced tornado activity over the southern plains, according to research....
Guess I'll keep my crazy Dixie Alley prediction since anything can happen. However I plan to chase the Plains.
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