Poll: worst storm chase seasons in recent history

Which was the worst year for storm chasing in general?

  • 2009

  • 2012

  • 2014

  • 2017

  • 2018

  • 2019

  • 2020


Results are only viewable after voting.

Jeff Duda

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Consider the period 2005-and on.

You can vote for two years (the number of choices are limited by the forum software...sorry. If you want to add a different year, nominate it in a reply).

Consider both your own experience in a given year and the overall sense of the quality of the year, but weight more towards your own experience.

For me, 2013 was horrendous, but I won't count it because it was objectively acceptable.
 
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Mark Blue

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I voted and it appears I hit the same years as the majority have. I don’t recall any memories of 2012. Does anyone have an opinion about that year? This should end up being an interesting thread and poll once it has run its course!
 
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I chose '12 and '20 but I think 2006 was even worse. My claim-to-fame for 2006 was one *possible* tornado seen and photographed from about 30 miles away. Biased to my own experiences:

2009 I had one good day: multiple tor's northeast of Floydada 4-29 (You should see David Drummond's unreal vid of that), and there was also a honking beast from near Rapid City down to Valentine July 13. [edit] found it.


2012 was really bad, but I did see one halfway-decent tornado.

2014 I don't think should even be on the list because of Pilger, the following day and Wessington Springs (SD).

June 12 2017 was so good in the WY/CO/NE corner I can't choose that year.

2018 was awful, despite the CO Landspoutfest and some great structure around Borger TX May 30, but it only places it 3rd-worst.

2019 I did actually see 8 tornadoes (none of which were good enough to post anything on YouTube), so for me cannot be chosen as one of 2 worst.

2020, the Holly and Kansas storm last week didn't do much for me.
 
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May 28, 2011
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Hands down, 2020 wins and I'm not even sure it matters what happens in June. I've had one chase to northwest KS last Saturday and it was a bust. The second place finisher was tough though, so I went more from a personal level.

I hadn't started chasing yet in '09 so that's out. 2012 was pretty bad but early in the season had enough storms including the high risk day on 4/14. 2017 was absolutely awful until the Carpenter tornado day but that one day salvaged the season. 2018 was tough and a very late start, but I made the most of my few chances and scored almost every time. Got Tescott, WY tornadoes, and the spout fest in CO. 2019 was extremely slow since I wasn't going to venture down to the hellhole known as Oklahoma. But I got the Nebraska tornadoes starting with McCook and the Tipton, KS tornadoes from relatively close range.

2014 is my second place finisher. It was an ungodly slow year with any storms that did occur not living up to expectations. Then I traveled to Iceland in June, fairly confident that no severe weather events would occur since the longer range models showed next to nothing. On my last three days, we spent most of them huddled up in the camper van out of the rain watching twin EF-4's, wedges, and beautiful SD tornadoes come across our social media feeds. All these were within three hours of where we live. I think I've seen one tornado within three hours of Omaha in the last 10 years and it was on a <2% day. The level of depression watching those videos from my home state as I was thousands of miles away was worse than every other bust that year combined.

God I'm pissed off just thinking about it.
 

Drew Terril

Staff member
I'm hesitant to judge 2020 until we get through June. If we're excluding anything after the end of May, 2014 and 2018 were no better IMO. If you didn't get Tescott in 2018, you basically got nothing in May. The only notable tornado in the southern plains in 14 that I recall was Quapaw, and that was the day prior to my birthday in late April. In fact, that's the only reason I didn't chase that day. My folks would have killed me if I didn't show up for my own birthday meal.

Certainly there have been more opportunities this year being based in Oklahoma than there were in 2014, assuming you can call off work the day prior, which I cannot. Even with that, I still managed one successful chase. 2014 never presented me with another opportunity after I sat out the Quapaw storm (which was just over an hour from my hometown of Catoosa). Didn't have a good enough paying job at the time to jump on any of the stuff from Nebraska and points north that year.
 
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Jul 5, 2009
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Ugh sorry I accidentally clicked the check box for 2019 instead of 2020, any way my vote can be reset so I can resubmit? Sorry to be any trouble!

Agree 2006 should be added, that would probably be in my top two, maybe even number one worst.

@Paul Sherman yeah 2012 had Lacrosse so wouldn’t make my “worst” list. Shows that one tornado day can make a trip for chase vacationers like me - but not necessarily enough to keep it off the “worst” list for the season as a whole (although I can’t remember much else about 2012; I do keep journals but not in the mood to go retrieve them right now...)

EDIT: Also I understand 2018 generally sucked, but I always come back to the fact that one *could have* seen tornados three days in a row - WY, the CO landspout day, and DDC (I may have the last two in the wrong chronological order, I can’t remember). I screwed up on all three of those days, but I always blame myself for that and never really think of it as a bad season because those opportunities existed. Not every chase vacation of mine even had three available tornado days.
 
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June 12 2017 was so good in the WY/CO/NE corner I can't choose that year.
I voted 2017 as my worst and you reminded me of something that made it even worse - everything suddenly blew up that one late-season day which, IIRC, was the first day outside of my available chasing window. I had left the Plains early because of inactivity, and had a window I could have gone back, and that big day was I think the first day after my window had expired. Salt in the wounds for sure.
 
I don’t recall any memories of 2012. Does anyone have an opinion about that year?
2012 was my first "real" chase year and it went fairly well, so I probably look back on it with rose-colored glasses. I bagged a couple crappy tornadoes, but structure was pretty good and I'm a sucker for structure. I was out May 25 - June 3 and it was one of my favorite chase periods in my chasing career. Since that first year, I've never been on of "the big one" days, so take my input with that in mind.
 
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I have kept a Blog since 2005 so its relatively easy for me to check the notable days I saw Tornadoes

2005 :- May 10th Grand Island Supercell to May 13th Childress HP was a decent Period
2006 :- God Awful
2007 :- Greensburg EF5 and Sporadic Tornado Events upto the 3rd Week
2008 :- Absolute Insanity 21st to 30th was Incredible with 3 High Risk Events
2009 :- God Awful
2010 :- May 10th High Risk, May 18th and 19th Oklahoma Events May 25th Walsh Tornado and May 31st Campo
2011 :- Landed day after Tuscaloosa and Changed over a Tour for Joplin but May 24th High Risk saved it with Canton
2012 :- Lacrosse Tornado Day 25th May in Kansas
2013 :- Granbury EF4 on 15th, Graham 17th, Shawnee EF4 19th May, El Reno 31st May and some decent June Tornadoes
2014 :- Non Descript May but 16th to 18th with Pilger, Coleridge and Alpena saved the Season
2015 :- Canadian 27th May and Simla 4th June were the Season Savers
2016 :- Wray, Wynnewood, Felt, Leoti, Perryman, Turkey, Dodge and Chapman including a 5 day Tornado Run
2017 :- McClean 17th and 12th June but overall a poor season
2018 :- May 28th Landspoutfest in CO, June 19th Keenesburg (Co)
2019 :- Mccook 17th and various tornadoes upto the 25th and a few High Plains Tornadoes in June 2019

So its easy to see why 2006 and 2009 get my vote although had we made it over I think 2020 would be up there in first place.
 

Jeff Duda

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I have kept a Blog since 2005 so its relatively easy for me to check the notable days I saw Tornadoes

2005 :- May 10th Grand Island Supercell to May 13th Childress HP was a decent Period
2006 :- God Awful
2007 :- Greensburg EF5 and Sporadic Tornado Events upto the 3rd Week
2008 :- Absolute Insanity 21st to 30th was Incredible with 3 High Risk Events
2009 :- God Awful
2010 :- May 10th High Risk, May 18th and 19th Oklahoma Events May 25th Walsh Tornado and May 31st Campo
2011 :- Landed day after Tuscaloosa and Changed over a Tour for Joplin but May 24th High Risk saved it with Canton
2012 :- Lacrosse Tornado Day 25th May in Kansas
2013 :- Granbury EF4 on 15th, Graham 17th, Shawnee EF4 19th May, El Reno 31st May and some decent June Tornadoes
2014 :- Non Descript May but 16th to 18th with Pilger, Coleridge and Alpena saved the Season
2015 :- Canadian 27th May and Simla 4th June were the Season Savers
2016 :- Wray, Wynnewood, Felt, Leoti, Perryman, Turkey, Dodge and Chapman including a 5 day Tornado Run
2017 :- McClean 17th and 12th June but overall a poor season
2018 :- May 28th Landspoutfest in CO, June 19th Keenesburg (Co)
2019 :- Mccook 17th and various tornadoes upto the 25th and a few High Plains Tornadoes in June 2019

So its easy to see why 2006 and 2009 get my vote although had we made it over I think 2020 would be up there in first place.
Unfortunately, we no longer have many long-term members who were around for the 2005-2009 seasons to provide a strong enough voice for how terrible some of those years were. I should give you about 10 more votes so you can repeatedly vote for 2006/2009. I suspect if this current crowd had to deal with another 2006, the complaints would be about as loud as they are for 2020.
 
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I think 2006 is the closest match to how 2020 has evolved to this point: actually decent (relative to the meager early season Plains climo) up through the end of April, then miserable afterwards. However, 2006 was a bit more active in March-April, whereas 2020 has been a bit more active in May itself. We've snuck in several decent May chase opportunities in the S Plains so far, but of the ones that are mainly structure-focused and lacked quality tornadoes, it's hard to say whether 2006 may have also had similar opportunities that very few chasers bit on. I think that window from 2005-2010 is when most of the explosive growth happened in our hobby -- particularly the emergence of the "never stop chasing" contingent -- so the reporting biases for marginal/non-tornadic events may also have changed drastically around that period.

In my objective (LSR-based) chase season rankings I've mentioned here before, 2006 comes out as by far the worst May-June combo in the dataset, which stretches back to 1955. So, it comes down to whether you're a local vs. vacationer, and how you weight the early season. It would be very difficult to have a year objectively worse than 2006 if you weren't around in March and April that year.
 
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Unfortunately, we no longer have many long-term members who were around for the 2005-2009 seasons
Here are a few notes about 2005, and 2008 (2006 and 2009 are pretty well covered already. 2007 I did not chase for personal reasons).
I mostly looked at various data for dates for which I have some videos or photos.

2005:
Paul mentioned the May 10 Grand Island (to York) supercell.
After that I had to go to PA for a funeral. My next record chasing anything significant was on...
May 31 storm from Clovis to Lubbock. SPC has 7 tornado reports from TX that day.
June 5 storm invof Mountain Park & Snyder OK
June 9 multiple tornadoes in KS, esp. Hill City/WaKeeney area. 45 tornado reports (nationally) on SPC page
June 11 TX PH tornadoes SPC: 10

2008:
May 22 48 tornado reports from SPC, mostly KS, CO and WY
May 23 SPC has 64 tornado reports
May 25 53 tornadoes nationally
May 29 71 tornadoes nationally
June 5 37 tornadoes in The Alley
June 11 64 tornadoes C KS to Minneapolis MN
June 12 32 tornadoes, mostly in a line from ~Salina to MI

Oh, and as for 2004, There was a wedge tornado near Perryton on April 19. It was controversial. There was an argument about whether or not it was even a tornado at all, but in the end the "yes it was" won out. Then on June 12 was Mulvane, which was my career day up to that point. Mulvane doesn't even qualify for my top 5 now. I didn't personally see much of anything else in 2004, and I don't know how other chasers did that year.
 
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Drew Terril

Staff member
Unfortunately, we no longer have many long-term members who were around for the 2005-2009 seasons to provide a strong enough voice for how terrible some of those years were. I should give you about 10 more votes so you can repeatedly vote for 2006/2009. I suspect if this current crowd had to deal with another 2006, the complaints would be about as loud as they are for 2020.
Jeff, you make a good point. I never really thought of it because for one, I had zero connection to the chase community (didn't know any other chasers at all) until 2011, and two, I was still living in Kentucky at the time, and never had the resources or time to make chase trips out to the plains. I did get my first tornado that year (in Kentucky east of I-65 of all places), but hadn't payed as much attention to the plains that year since I couldn't chase it as I was working full time in the construction industry, in addition to my duties in the Reserves.
 
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Dean Baron

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2020 so far. 2009 at least had the Aurora tornado on 6/17/09. 2012 had a huge tornado day in KS/OK in April. I don't remember much from 2018 but I don't think it was as bleak as 2020 has been for the heart of tornado alley. Look at the tornado watch and severe thunderstorm watches maps on the SPC page (someone posted them in a thread here recently). That's the only thing you really need in order to see how bad it's been. The best tornado days this year have either been in Dixie alley or buried along the Red River. Iowa is the only place in traditional tornado alley that has seen anything worthwhile so far this season. 2006 at least had the huge outbreak on 3/12. It might have been early in the season and not in the heart of tornado alley, but the placement, magnitude, and overall chaseability were all way better than anything so far this season in the plains.

June could still prove to be decent. At this point though it would be more likely that the northern plains would be the saving grace for the season and us northerners could still call it a decent season. Anyone stuck chasing the central and southern plains would likely still consider the entire season a bust. If this were to end up happening, you have to break down the season's success by region, which tends to happen most years anyway. For many years recently, our northern plains season have been very unproductive/disappointing, even in years considered "good" due to memorable storms/tornadoes out of our reach in the central and southern plains.
 
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Dec 8, 2003
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The GFS does advertise a couple of trofs digging through the S Plains, 6-4/5 and 6-9, but I'm hopeful the virus situation will improve enough that I will be willing to do multi-day chases by late June and I love chasing the Dakotas. Here in CO we had zero deaths a couple days ago. Please let's not have a second wave.
 

Michael Towers

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I didn’t chase in 2006 as I was having my house built but I remember not being frustrated at having to miss anything significant.

2012 would be second worst, I missed the big April event and only chased twice with one being a total bust. I also remember two times I had my vehicle packed for a trip and fired up my laptop before leaving to hone my target only to find there wasn’t a target worth chasing anymore. Unpacked the rig and went to work both times instead.

2018 would be the worst, I only chased May 1 & 2. I picked the wrong storms on May 1 so I missed all the tornado action and May 2 did feature a tornado on my storm...when my back was turned. Similar to 2012 I cancelled a trip after checking data in the morning…from my hotel in KC. Yep, drove all the way to KC primed for action the next day in SW Kansas only to find the set-up had gone to crap overnight. I think that was the hardest chase planning decision I’ve ever made but I couldn’t justify wasting more time and money just because I was already en route. Thankfully it turned out to be the right decision as the day was a mess but if it would have produced it would have been my all-time biggest bust/mistake ever.

2020 gets an honorable mention to date, two backyard chases but I went out of the backyard and into Iowa in March and missed what little happened and had to work last Saturday until 1:30 and missed the last western Illinois tornado by 5 minutes. This will be the only chase season aside from 2009 & 2012 not featuring a plains chase through May.
 
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It would be cool if we could have some sort of running, crowd-sourced ranking for each year. I know the survey above serves as that in a way, but I'm thinking of something that would be based on the chase days each year (or lack thereof) and how chasers rated those (something as simple as good, "eh", or bad). It could even be broken down into tor numbers and quality and storm numbers and quality. I'm not sure such a thing is possible, nor do I personally have the time or probably the creativity to pursue it myself. Just throwing it out there in case there is someone who is interested enough and able to do such a thing. I know Dan Robinson did this in a way for chase days back in 2018, which I'm pretty sure was spawned by talk of how that was one of the worst, if not the worst year ever...
 
Apr 13, 2009
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I looked at my logs. Keep in mind I am rating these based on chasing opportunities in and near the Great Plains in late May/early June.

2018 wasn't great. No tornadoes, but we did see some decent structure and there were chase opportunities (even if it meant going to ND), where 2017 lacked opportunities. 2019 had opportunities but most were in poor chase terrain or at night. So I would rank 2019 and 2018 about equal with 2017 worse.

Due to massive drought, in May/June 2012 the only opportunities were on the edges of the drought in far flung places (western MT, southern NM) and they were few and far between.

2009 was terrible, even MDT risks busted. The Goshen tornado was the only decent thing, but of course I missed it.

I wasn't out in 2006 but a close friend was and I remember him telling me it was his worst year.
 
Jul 5, 2009
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Re: 2006 - As I posted previously, I remember it being one of my worst chase trips (May 27 - June 5) and seem to remember nothing much happening after that in June either. But memories can be unreliably distorted, so I went back to my logs. Most years I type up a journal for each day. Some years I summarize the results of each day in a spreadsheet, other years I wasn't as good about doing that. When I went back into my 2006 files, I was surprised to see that I had geeked out and put together a PowerPoint slide deck, one slide for each day containing the SPC storm reports and a summary of our chase actions/results! I hadn't even remembered doing this, and it's probably one of the only years I did - evidence of just how bad it was, I was trying to wrap my head around it and maybe convince myself I hadn't missed anything...

Anyway, here's a rundown of every day during that 2006 trip, in case anyone is interested, since many on here were not chasing back then and may want to know what the "old days" were like :)...

5/27 - no TOR reports on the Plains, only TOR Watch was in ND. This was actually my Plains arrival date.

5/28 - One TOR report in NE, around the eastern edge of the Panhandle and not too far south of the SD border. I actually have a note that a particular reputable chaser discredited this report based on his own observations. We actually blew off the NE Panhandle setup to not put ourselves out of range for a Kansas setup the next day. Also because temp/dewpoint spreads were high.

5/29 - Three TOR reports in west TX. My notes say these were landspouts and no TOR risk had been anticipated by SPC. This was out of range for us having been in North Platte the night before. KS just had hail reports and we just got weak storms on a cold front near Hutchinson.

5/30 - One TOR report in southeastern NM just above the TX border that runs east/west. My notes say we targeted the western OK Panhandle and that the areas was also favored by a lot of chasers but it did not verify. There was one hail and one wind report in that area. Numerous hail and wind reports in the TX Panhandle and in central KS

5/31 - TOR report in northeastern CO near WY border but no tornado mentioned by chasers. Later updated LSRs had a second tornado on the WY side of the border. Only other TORS were in IL and IN.

6/1 - No TOR reports in the whole US. There was a potential upslope setup in CO but we spent the day in Colorado Springs keeping an eye on developments; there were none. Only severe reports on the entire Plains were two hail reports in northcentral NM and southwestern NM and a couple in northeastern KS.

6/2 - A repositioning day for us, driving from Colorado Springs to the Black Hills area. My notes say "storms in and near Cherry County Nebraska were generally a surprise and a mesoscale accident. Area not in SPC Slight Risk (note - I think this was before the days of the "Margin" risk category). Storms referred to as "Sandhill Surprise" by other chasers." I remember seeing the anvil of this isolated supercell from a long distance away, with nothing but blue sky all around, the memory is coming back to me now - amazing, 14 years ago!

6/3 - One TOR report on the KS/CO border near Goodland, appeared to be an isolated landspout based on correspondence with other chasers. Not sure why the day before I had been heading to the Black Hills, but the only actual reports in SD today were way up in the north central part of the state (mostly hail, one wind)

6/4 - Only severe reports on the Plains were one wind report in southeast WY on the NE border and one in southcentral Nebraska

6/5 - Total of three TOR reports. SPC map shows red in southeastern SD and southeastern ND; I can't tell which red dot is actually two dots and which is one... (I only put the map, not the text, in my PowerPoint). We had targeted Kearney NE but it was on a cold front and pre-frontal trough, nothing good materialized but there are some hail reports.

In my 2006 chasing files, I also found correspondence with a veteran chaser - and I mean one of the originals in the "generation" (not necessarily by age but by when he started chasing) like Jim Leonard, Tim Marshall, et. al. - not much older than me (I don't think) but he was already a well-known chaser even when I started. I won't name him to respect privacy. But I found some correspondence with him where he called it the "worst chase alley season since 1987/1988" and his only highlight of the season (through May 31 when the correspondence is dated) was El Reno OK tornadoes on April 24. He noted if not for that storm, he would not have even taken a "picture of a supercell" to that point. He further wrote, "The pattern just hasn't been good enough to get me out the door the past few weeks. (Note - he lived in OK!) Ridging over the plains just won't go away and persistent eastern US trough has prevented/retarded return of deep, tropical moisture. Long range forecast for the next 8-14 days looks like deep summer and is pretty hopeless." In this correspondence, I had indicated that there had been no southern Plains tornadoes since around May 9 (but I haven't gone back to verify that). Based on my above reports, I must have been ignoring the 5/29 west TX reports as just landspouts and also must have been ignoring the NM reports because they were pretty far west and not so much part of traditional "southern Plains" territory.

EDIT: Since this was only a 9 or 10 day trip, I'm quite sure it was shortened on one end or the other precisely because it was so bad; normally my trips are 14-16 days including travel.
 
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Jeff House

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Indeed 2006 is the benchmark for awful years, with an early death ridge that never relented for June. I'd swap my 2018 for 2006 if it's on there. Keep 2020. So, I think 2006 and 2020 are the worst years. All the other loser years had something in June or otherwise a late save.

2020 is not over yet. We could get Wyoming action or some surprise in the Upper Midwest. Until June it's not over. No June would tie 2006.
 

Jeff Duda

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Indeed 2006 is the benchmark for awful years, with an early death ridge that never relented for June. I'd swap my 2018 for 2006 if it's on there. Keep 2020. So, I think 2006 and 2020 are the worst years. All the other loser years had something in June or otherwise a late save.

2020 is not over yet. We could get Wyoming action or some surprise in the Upper Midwest. Until June it's not over. No June would tie 2006.
Yep, I'd agree -- a consensus seems to be forming on 2006 and 2020 being comparatively terrible (and the top 2 worst) years. The fascinating thing is the difference in why they are terrible. 2006 seems to have featured a more classic "death ridge" type pattern. While 2020 has featured some high-amplitude ridges over the plains, what really seems to be restricting potential for events is a combination of poor moisture return (because we can't get decent troughs) but also the prevalence of cut-off lows, which are part of the reason we're not getting much moisture return. The mid-level flow lacks consistency -- there are days and small regions where supercell-shear exists, but it is not in traditional synoptic scale configurations and seems to lack predictability altogether, resulting in mesoscale-driven setups that consistently lack an ingredient (e.g., last Saturday in NW KS...the area was only able to manage upper 50s dews...in late May). And the dryline has been incredibly diffuse most days, so we're not getting any help from that.

Further observations of the pattern responsible for this terrible year?
 
Dec 8, 2003
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Funny thing about my 2006 pictures folder: It contains 120 pictures! Not all are storms, but most are. There are many wall clouds, funnels and beautiful structure from 14 different chase days, yet as I previously mentioned my tornado count was one POSSIBLE. Here it is, contrast jacked:

060531_2119d (2019_04_05 18_51_53 UTC).jpg

So I found quite a few storms, but they just would NOT produce! That said, I had to go to the Rio Grande in SW TX to Indianapolis to MT and ND to find them.
 
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I think the answer varies depending on where you live and whether you're a chasecationer or only chase locally. I've often thought about taking a few weeks off and chasing, but I think it would be stressful picking the right dates. And in quiet years like this one, I would rather use vacation days for something else. So I usually limit myself to Wyoming and neighboring states. Here's my perspective on the last 5 years as someone who lives on the Northern Plains:

2016: Before leaving Illinois, spring was nearly dead. After moving to Wyoming in June, the High Plains were nearly dead. While there were tornadoes, I wasn't living in the right place at the right time.
2017: Worst year overall. 6/12 was the big outbreak, but if you busted like I did there was pretty much nothing else to see.
2018: Lots of opportunities even though I missed many of them. But Capitol/Buffalo on 6/28 made the season for me.
2019: Best year overall, saw 7 tornadoes. Locally the season didn't really start until the end of June, but it also went all the way into September
2020: The jury is still out