Poll: How Many Chasers Here would actually Chase a solid 3 day setup Given a weeks notice next week?

Bobby Little

Supporter
Mar 18, 2013
33
39
6
57
eagle, michigan
O.K. .. Suppose You look and We have a 3 day Severe SPC setup in the MIDDLE of the week. probably talking Upper Plains Everything is open now. You have about 1 weeks notice. As the EVENT gets closer ..nothing changes.

Would you decide to lock in and Chase (pent up demand, chase no matter what, nothing better to do, your job, gotta chase once this year..right? ) OR....

Have you already decided that you would not ( middle week? Work? Covid-19? Lost enthusiasm? Convergence, location? Etc.?)

Just a quick answer needs to be given. I really would like to see what the thought at this time of season. I know this could be done in the state of the season but what about a spurs notice? Have people gave up this year or are they rabid for a chase?
 
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Bobby Little

Supporter
Mar 18, 2013
33
39
6
57
eagle, michigan
ok Ill answer my own first. I'm sick and tired about Covid 19 in every other word in conversation. Not happy with State of Affairs and chaos after the terrible George Floyd death. That said, 2-3 solid days anywhere i am gone. No planning. Nothing. After this rotton season, i would venture anywhere feasible to chase. It has been a bummer reading forums that lack any interesting tornado events, pics, stories, etc.
I need TWISTER!
So YES!
 
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Warren Faidley

Supporter
May 7, 2006
1,797
1,637
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Mos Isley Space Port
www.stormchaser.com
Most chasers will not commit to a long range chase in advance. Some might prepare, but the models are not accurate enough for most of us to take that risk. This weekend is a great example. Some chasers have driven hundreds of miles to chase in SD and ND, but ATM it appears like an ultra-bust in a region with poor road networks regardless. I think the inertia of what originally appeared as multiple PDS days was hard to reject when the models spoke the truth. Then again, if you have the free time, funding and you are not concerned about COVID, then it's a good time to take a long shot and just get the F___ out! SD and ND are beautiful this time of year.
 
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Mar 2, 2004
2,319
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11
Wichita, KS
www.facebook.com
Gotta agree with Warren... earlier this week I was cursing myself because my "chasecation" (requested off in January) started Sunday morning at 9am, and I knew there was no way I'd make it to the Dakotas straight out of work Sunday morning. I figured if anything, I'd get Monday, which was going to be a stretch for a one-day drive. But alas, as we got closer, things definitely fell apart, and while I felt bad for those who invested the time and effort, I am relieved as you can imagine I would not have been happy to have missed that given how little there has been to chase this year. But for a while, I was figuring on missing most if not this entire setup.

That said, I would be cautious to make any set-in-stone plans for such an event, should it require a decent haul. Obviously I'd be fine for anything in state as it is my job to chase, but would I take time off a week in advance? Probably not. Especially given the weekday flexibility I do have, I could theoretically make the call the day of to leave.
 
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John Farley

Supporter
Apr 1, 2004
1,567
774
21
Pagosa Springs, CO
www.johnefarley.com
Still not doing any chasing that requires an overnight stay due to COVID. It will likely be more widespread next week as cases from the Memorial Day weekend fun and everything that has happened since continue to spread. I am 70, so you younger folks' results my vary. Did get out and chase locally today for the second time this season, and saw a marginal supercell, so better than nothing.
 
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Sep 7, 2013
649
478
21
Strasburg, CO
I'm a car camper, so I'm set up to go anywhere and can stay anywhere at a moment's notice without any concern over covid. If I had a guaranteed setup for 3 days, I would definitely consider it.

That being said, probably not. I'd rather go camping. As this hobby continues to be extreme in its highs and lows, I find myself less anxious to get out there. I started with lightning and that evolved into structure. Tornados were always sort of a bonus. I've seen my share. Truth be told, after 10+ years, it's getting boring. When I would choose to sit in the woods and read a book by a campfire vs sit in a hot car all day to maybe see some shitty clouds, I know where I'll be.

But I can't do that either because dry. Fire bans. 2020 can gfy.
 
Ordinarily, I need a week's notice at a bare minimum to take any time off work. Currently though, between the process of moving that I'm currently dealing with, and the costs involved with that, I'm not going to be chasing anything for a little while. If this were August or so, I could probably swing it. But what I would do is make arrangements with work, and if things go to crap, cancel my time off. With the nature of my job, I can't decide the day prior that I want off, and really have to make arrangements a week out.
 
Jul 5, 2009
1,110
940
21
Newtown, Pennsylvania
I canceled my chase vacation this year for a variety of reasons, most of them either directly or indirectly related to covid (see my post in the chasing and covid thread). I am much less concerned about covid now than I was just a couple of weeks ago, but the indirect reasons remain - for example, leaving my family alone after they have already dealt with 10+ weeks of cabin fever locked down at home (Philadelphia area still heavily restricted even now). At this point, I have made peace with waiting until next year. Not having missed anything good to date certainly helps. But even if I had chased this year, I would be back home by now (actually in most years I would have been home already). So I am mentally out of “chase mode” and in my normal “summer at home mode.” Part of what I love about chase vacations is the cadence of being in “chase mode” on the road for two straight weeks. Really don’t have much of an interest in going to all the trouble to get out there for just a three day period. After three days I’m just starting to shake the rust off and get into a “groove.” To have to head home after just getting started would be in some ways worse than not going at all. Not to mention I’m in the thick of it at work right now after already cancelling my trip, no way I could reverse course right now. The 2020 season is over in my eyes, and I have moved on. I wish the whole year was over.
 

Dave C

EF2
Jun 5, 2013
107
119
11
Denver
www.davidcrowlphotography.com
I can usually get out of work for 1-3 days on short notice and have the funds to chase, and can be self sufficient camping comfortably entirely in my vehicle if need be, only needing fuel stops.

Still, my answer must be no as the question was phrased because I never commit too far ahead of time and SPC is not a reliable prediction of event quality or even probability for that matter- they err on the side of bounding risk and care nothing about chase quality.

My taste for being out there using up gas, miles on the car, and vacation on bad setups has dwindled both from experience, COVID concerns, and investment vs. reward consideration. I just don't enjoy wasting resources for dismal chase days with ugly storms with fast motion which seems to be the new normal if storms happen at all. Like Marc said above, if given a choice being out to see some trashy mess of clouds, hard pass, there is better stuff to spend time and money on. Fortunately forecasting lets me avoid these kinds of busts.

If you modified this question to use of my own forecast without some pre-commitment, I'll head out the door without question for any multi day chase I think will be worth the resources spent, even in this era of COVID (precautions in place so I only need fuel; not even food stops, restroom or hotel would be needed as mentioned). It's all about the quality of the setups for me, not just chasing to chase. I expect decent structure, lightning, or a viewable tornado as minimum to call a chase worth it- seen enough garbage messy clouds to last a lifetime. I'm actually shocked at the chase everything crowd that has swollen the ranks of chasedom. To each their own, I think many just need to fill their time with a distraction right now. For me there is plenty to prioritize above 'meh' chases.
 

Michael Towers

Supporter
Jun 28, 2007
305
130
11
Machesney Park, IL
So if today (Saturday) the SPC had a Slight for next Thursday-Saturday and the models show a set-up with decent and possibly high end potential and by Tuesday nothing has changed? Would I lock in a chase? In the northern plains?

Do I have to sacrifice my firstborn?
 
Mar 30, 2008
1,241
1,019
21
Norman, OK
www.benholcomb.com
I mean considering the fact that I'm work from home seemingly permanently, I'm game for anything. This past weekends setup busting did suck. I invested in it and made plans I couldn't back out on. Oh well, I still thought Sunday had a shot.

But if you're asking about hotels or travel or whatever, I don't care. I'll head out. I'm not spending my life sitting at home.
 
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James K

EF3
Mar 26, 2019
299
114
6
Colorado
I'm out of work due to it still being closed, so in theory I could 'just go' with no notice.
But I'm also one who in general wouldn't feel comfortable going more than a couple hours drive time from home...

(in some ways I think it'd be cool to to go out watching storms, camp somewhere overnight, get another storm the 2nd day, then head back home, but (especially for me just being out by myself) that is far far outside my comfort zone, so aint gonna happen .lol. )
 

Jeff House

Supporter
Jun 1, 2008
548
499
11
Chattanooga, TN
www.linkedin.com
If traveling one does have to make a decision about a Day 3-8 forecast. Decide Day 1. Travel Day 2. Begin chasing Day 3.

I do prefer 3-5 chase days. Maybe 2 if one looks really good or both are pretty solid. Usually it's 3-4 chase days out of 4-5 total Plains days. Down days we see friends (preferred) reposition (boring) etc. Then add travel days and it's a 7-day trip.

Day 3-8 forecast is defined as my/our own with chase partner(s). In April and May, when setups are synoptic, we usually agree with SPC or don't diverge far. Late May and June meso-scale sometimes the chase outlook differs from the public SPC outlooks. Forecast thoughts may actually be similar; however for a local chase set-up, perhaps a public Day 4-8 is not necessary or practical.

I/we actually thought about that week briefly (June 8-12) but punted well before a decision was required. Fortunately I have flexibility of a floating chase vacation at work; but, did not use it this year.

Usually we go in May. April is arguably the most predictable with a large synoptic system; however, it might be just 1-2 days with fast motion etc. May is (was once upon a time) peak. June predictability drops, but June can yield true gems.

We've thought about going in June, for less traffic. However it's usually shorter or more spread out sequences. May crowds could force the issue. Learn to deal with June uncertainly / gamble on the trip. We'll see in 2021.