New experimental tornado model

Discussion in 'Weather In The News' started by Todd Lemery, Jul 13, 2017.

  1. Todd Lemery

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  2. Jeff Duda

    Jeff Duda Resident meteorological expert
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    This isn't new. Warn-on-Forecast was proposed years ago. Thankfully, after nearly 10 years of R&D, they're getting close to a quasi-operational system.

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  3. rdale

    rdale Member

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    ...and the headline is WAY wrong... It did not predict the path - it indicated that any storms forming would have a higher chance of a tornado. Neat stuff regardless!
     
  4. Alex Elmore

    Alex Elmore Member

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    It'll be interesting to see how this performs as time goes on. I'm curious as to if it can predict hazards prior to storm formation, or if it can only handle storms that are already mature. Regardless, it should be a great tool for forecasters if it can be incorporated into the warning and forecasting process properly.

    I understand that it is still being developed; therefore, there still could be tweaks and changes, but it will be interesting to see how the public handles these longer lead times. I'm not sure if there is any concrete research that has been done to examine how the public responds to longer lead times on severe threats, but I have heard through talks at conferences and other sources that a longer lead time may not be the ultimate fix when it comes to preventing storm-related injuries and fatalities. People may not perceive the threat as that great, given they have so much time to prepare, so they may not take the proper action. However, for those that will take the threat seriously, this will be great in that it will allow them plenty of time to take appropriate action.
     
  5. Brian McKibben

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    So how did this model perform on May 18th? Did it do a similar good job on seiling storm?

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  6. Trey Thee

    Trey Thee Member

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    I was wondering the same. Maybe someone here can tell.

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  7. Jeff House

    Jeff House Member

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    As we know some of the high-res models do well with a supercell on a boundary intersection. We chase it. Why not warn it? OK maybe not yet for public warnings. More work to be done as Jeff D notes.

    Subtle signatures may always be tough to warn (model or radar) but I am optimistic that lead-time for classic violent tornadoes can increase. These models have come so far in just a few years. Again, we already see them nail sups on boundary intersections.
     

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