Thanks a lot @Jeff House , just when I was starting to feel better about having to take a later trip this year LOL
Seriously though, I agree, and that's what I was getting at with my earlier post - second half of May seems like a slam dunk. Some chasers could be biased by particularly memorable personal chase experiences that happened to occur in June, or could be biased by more recent successes in June, etc. Certainly some chasers like Bob can statistically and objectively point to having had better personal success in June, I'm not intending to question that...
There could be variables at play other than climatology, such as luck, timing, etc., and some chasers specifically identified non-climatological things they like about June - e.g. fewer chasers on the roads, preference of northern Plains, etc. But I think we would all have to agree that strictly on climatology alone, late May is the best choice.
For a two week trip, my personal approach (when I was able to do it) was to set aside the 3rd and 4th weeks of May and the 1st week of June. Head out for 3rd week of May if it looked good and chase May weeks 3 and 4, otherwise wait a week and chase May week 4 plus June week 1.
I do always feel like I'm coming home too early if it's May 31 or earlier - I do like the idea of being out that first week of June - but what the hell, you're always going to miss something before or after a two week chase vacation.
But if I was lucky enough to have a whole month, and could only choose May or June with no overlap, I'd go with May. If I could have overlap, I'd probably swap the first week of May for the first week of June, and do something like May 7th to June 7th.
Seriously though, I agree, and that's what I was getting at with my earlier post - second half of May seems like a slam dunk. Some chasers could be biased by particularly memorable personal chase experiences that happened to occur in June, or could be biased by more recent successes in June, etc. Certainly some chasers like Bob can statistically and objectively point to having had better personal success in June, I'm not intending to question that...
There could be variables at play other than climatology, such as luck, timing, etc., and some chasers specifically identified non-climatological things they like about June - e.g. fewer chasers on the roads, preference of northern Plains, etc. But I think we would all have to agree that strictly on climatology alone, late May is the best choice.
For a two week trip, my personal approach (when I was able to do it) was to set aside the 3rd and 4th weeks of May and the 1st week of June. Head out for 3rd week of May if it looked good and chase May weeks 3 and 4, otherwise wait a week and chase May week 4 plus June week 1.
I do always feel like I'm coming home too early if it's May 31 or earlier - I do like the idea of being out that first week of June - but what the hell, you're always going to miss something before or after a two week chase vacation.
But if I was lucky enough to have a whole month, and could only choose May or June with no overlap, I'd go with May. If I could have overlap, I'd probably swap the first week of May for the first week of June, and do something like May 7th to June 7th.