Let's talk about the TVCN consensus model

Justin Allen

Tropical Guru
Staff member
Oct 10, 2018
45
13
6
New Orleans, La
www.helicity.co
Spaghetti plots. We have all seen them around social media and weather forums. So much data to take in, it all becomes a blur. But have you noticed the TVCN consensus model which is usually very close to what the NHC forecast is? How can it be so (relatively) accurate?

Let's dive into where the TVCN model gets it's data from.

1) The average of the last two runs of the members within the TCON plus the ECMWF model is known as the TVCN consensus.

2) The TCON consensus is the GUNA consensus plus the Hurricane WRF model.

3)The GUNA model is a consensus of the interpolated versions of the HMON, UKMET with quality control applied to the cyclone tracker, United States Navy NAVGEM, and GFS models.

So the TVCN involves the ECMWF, HWRF, HMON, UKMET, NAVGEM, and GFS.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Michael Norris

Lou Ruh

EF2
May 17, 2007
136
24
11
SE PA
Spaghetti plots. We have all seen them around social media and weather forums. So much data to take in, it all becomes a blur. But have you noticed the TVCN consensus model which is usually very close to what the NHC forecast is? How can it be so (relatively) accurate?

Let's dive into where the TVCN model gets it's data from.

1) The average of the last two runs of the members within the TCON plus the ECMWF model is known as the TVCN consensus.

2) The TCON consensus is the GUNA consensus plus the Hurricane WRF model.

3)The GUNA model is a consensus of the interpolated versions of the HMON, UKMET with quality control applied to the cyclone tracker, United States Navy NAVGEM, and GFS models.

So the TVCN involves the ECMWF, HWRF, HMON, UKMET, NAVGEM, and GFS.
Do you have a link for where the TVCN output (plotted on a map, preferably) can be viewed?