La Nina Watch cancelled

May 16, 2011
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Seattle , Wa
La Nina Watch has been cancelled and we look to be heading into ENSO Neutral conditions this winter and next spring.
I'll take a look at the ENSO numbers with regards to Neutral year conditions, and Ill also compare how we came out of the El Nino year and the low number of tornadoes we have been seeing this year.
This neutral winter/spring coming up marks the transition of ENSO phases in the Pacific. I haven't seen it talked about anywhere, but I do not expect that we have any chance of going back to El Nino conditions anytime soon. Historically strong El Nino's have been followed by extended periods of Neutral or La Nina conditions.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Personally, I'm curious to see how tornado numbers in the plains line up with Neutral conditions, like stated before it doesn't mean much, but its fun to try and identify patterns, and every new year brings us another sample to add to our incredibly small ENSO sample size.

What are your thoughts?