Italian scientists convicted of manslaughter in failure to predict earthquake

Zach Young

I wouldn't say it's totally not weather centric... Basically these guys were convicted of not predicting the unpredictable in nature. This would be the same as a meteorologist being convicted for not accurately predicting exactly which town a tornado was going to hit, or predicting where lightning will strike. Probably a better example would be if the convicted a meteorologist of manslaughter on a surprise day where tornadoes happened when they weren't predicted (like the Sacramento Valley tornadoes yesterday, had they caused fatalities). I hope this ruling gets overturned, the judge dismissed, and the decision ridiculed globally, because otherwise it sets a dangerous precedent.
 
Jul 13, 2008
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Stamford, UK
This story has obviously made a number of headlines over here in the last 24 hours and today it has been reported that the head of the Italian department of risk assessment has resigned in disgust.

Whilst it may be somewhat pedantic I should like to point out that the people were convicted of providing a "too optimistic" forecast which the authorities claim led to many people returning to their houses after spending many days sleeping al fresco following weeks of unusually frequent minor tremors (this area is well used to small earthquakes). The prosecution acknowledges that current science cannot predict earthquakes within the timescales required to give people a few days notice (of a large earthquake).

I for one am appalled by this prosecution and hope that the international outcry will shame the Italian authorities.

Not sure this is "Just another example of how screwed up Europe is". After all Italy is a small country in the Continent of Europe that has a legal system that is not held in high esteem in much of the Western world.
 

rdale

EF5
Mar 1, 2004
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Lansing, MI
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A seismologist said the weak quakes were a precursor of something much worse. The head of their Civil Defense called him an imbecile spreading false rumors, and that residents should just grab a glass of wine and ignore his claims.

Hard to see why people are defending that as a valid government response? It would be like the NWS issuing a tornado warning on a high EHI day, and me going on air and saying "they are just joking, go grab a Bud and ignore those idiots"
 

Zach Young

A seismologist said the weak quakes were a precursor of something much worse. The head of their Civil Defense called him an imbecile spreading false rumors, and that residents should just grab a glass of wine and ignore his claims.
Except that the guy claiming to predict a bigger quake was not, in fact, a seismologist. Granted, weak quakes sometimes precede a larger shock. But much more often they do not. A better analogy would be if some guy saw a bunch of dust devils in the morning and issued a tornado warning for the afternoon. There are often dust devils in the morning before tornadoes, but sometimes there are not, and often dust devils happen on clear blue days.
 
This story has obviously made a number of headlines over here in the last 24 hours and today it has been reported that the head of the Italian department of risk assessment has resigned in disgust.

Whilst it may be somewhat pedantic I should like to point out that the people were convicted of providing a "too optimistic" forecast which the authorities claim led to many people returning to their houses after spending many days sleeping al fresco following weeks of unusually frequent minor tremors (this area is well used to small earthquakes). The prosecution acknowledges that current science cannot predict earthquakes within the timescales required to give people a few days notice (of a large earthquake).

I for one am appalled by this prosecution and hope that the international outcry will shame the Italian authorities.

Not sure this is "Just another example of how screwed up Europe is". After all Italy is a small country in the Continent of Europe that has a legal system that is not held in high esteem in much of the Western world.

I think too this sentence is really crazy but your story about "italy and low esteem in the western World" is a total lack of class and a total absurdity.

First of all, I remember you that your legal system comes from Latins and Greeks, the first ones to speak about "legal system" (and yes, this kind of culture had his roots just in Italy not in UK) so I would not be so jaunty with your statements. Remember that.

This sentence comes from a crazy judge and the italian legal systema doesn't give a damn with that. Moreover no one is perfect.

That said every one, every state such as Italy, England, Germany and every one else has his faults and mistakes, it's not sign of democracy talking about a state as Italy like this.

To conclude, I remember you that in Italy, there're 3 degrees of judgment, and this is only the first one, so this crazy sentnece could change in the next months, so before condamn a state, I suggest you to keep you informed about what you're talking about. Thank you.
 
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Matt - Italy does not reflect the entire Europe by any way... And this comes from an European. Regarding Italy, I find that judgement horrendous and hope that it will get overturned at a higher level. Otherwise I'd imagine Italy would have a flood of doomsday forecasts because everybody would be afraid do downplay any claim of impending disaster.
 
The same sismologist forecasted other earthquakes that as matter of facts didn't verify.



A seismologist said the weak quakes were a precursor of something much worse. The head of their Civil Defense called him an imbecile spreading false rumors, and that residents should just grab a glass of wine and ignore his claims.

Hard to see why people are defending that as a valid government response? It would be like the NWS issuing a tornado warning on a high EHI day, and me going on air and saying "they are just joking, go grab a Bud and ignore those idiots"
 

rdale

EF5
Mar 1, 2004
6,963
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Lansing, MI
skywatch.org
I'm not defending the seismologist at all. Italy's court system is FAR different than ours. My point is that as the head of a civil defense agency, you shouldn't go around telling people "earthquakes don't happen here, so grab a glass of wine and ignore any preparations you might otherwise perform."
 
Jan 27, 2011
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Russell, KS
Matt - Italy does not reflect the entire Europe by any way... And this comes from an European. Regarding Italy, I find that judgement horrendous and hope that it will get overturned at a higher level. Otherwise I'd imagine Italy would have a flood of doomsday forecasts because everybody would be afraid do downplay any claim of impending disaster.
This is just the latest in a long line of incidents. It is far from the first court case that has been bungled by a corrupt "guilty until proven otherwise" legal system. And then there are all the countries falling into turmoil and anarchy because their unsustainable socialist governments can't afford to operate, and the people are rioting because they are being told that they're going to have to start paying for things they should've been paying for all along. No wonder y'all love Obama over there. And all this is apparently deserving of a Nobel Peace Prize?

Not trying to derail the thread with politics, but that's what it boils down to.



Sent from my Galaxy SII using some Tappity Talkity thing.
 
This is just the latest in a long line of incidents. It is far from the first court case that has been bungled by a corrupt "guilty until proven otherwise" legal system. And then there are all the countries falling into turmoil and anarchy because their unsustainable socialist governments can't afford to operate, and the people are rioting because they are being told that they're going to have to start paying for things they should've been paying for all along. No wonder y'all love Obama over there. And all this is apparently deserving of a Nobel Peace Prize?

Not trying to derail the thread with politics, but that's what it boils down to.



Sent from my Galaxy SII using some Tappity Talkity thing.
This has nothing to do with why I started this thread.