Discussion in 'Tropical forum' started by MikeD, Mar 27, 2018.
Take a guess at when the first Hurricane, not tropical storm or depression is going to form.
I guess...July 16?
Since we're throwing random guesses up in the air: August 8th.
Because Franklin August 7-10?
TSR is predicting more hurricanes than 2017 at this time!
Anyway, this is a free discussion about the hurricanes of 2018.
Wasn't even sure what you referenced, until I went to check. Amazing how slow last year started (other than the cheap tropical storms). But given that August 10th is the climatologist first hurricane on average, why not!
Out of curiosity, do you work at NHC Miami?
Haha, no sir I live in Orlando and have some tropical background - did the coursework and research towards a MS in tropical meteorology at FSU a decade ago (though never finished the thesis) - but certainly never made it that far. I may have more connections to the tropical field than many in the chasing community, but I'm certainly not a seminal authority on such topics!
2018 is looking like it’s going to be an overestimated season. I’m surprised how bold NCSU is being this season, though. It could be another 2004/2005 repeat, but NOAA is deflating the energy.
Since the sea temperatures are lower than last year and we don’t have La Niña anymore, we might be looking at something boring, like the 1997 or the 2014 season.
This update is a little late.
The hurricane season looks really poor at this point, with possible one major hurricane.
Hurricane Florence was just declared a major hurricane. Looks like it’s making a beeline for Bermuda. Impact time is estimated to be next Wednesday. Currently sustaining 120 mph winds.
Gordon just hit the edge of Alabama and Mississippi with 70 mph winds. Center of circulation is currently in Jackson, Mississippi. Heavy storms over in east Mississippi and west/central Alabama.
Both Florence and the second system off the coast of Africa have the potential to effect the US, although a long shot as usual this far out. The latest GFS (9-5-18 00z) shows Florence coming very close to the east coast in 8-10 days. The second disturbance is forming further south so it will need to be watched, especially if it tracks south of Florence.
Florence currently a category 4, 20% potential to maintain it. Models show strong potential to degrade to a category 2 due to strong upper level wind shear. Spaghetti points Florence directly to Bermuda. In the next few hours, Florence will degrade to a category 3.
The second disturbance, as @Warren Faidley helpfully mentioned, will track further south the Florence, hopefully NOT hitting Georgia/Florida. The second disturbance also has better conditions, with the shear dissipating near the equator and warmer temperatures.
Sorry for the atrocious handwriting.
Don't see much in any of the latest model runs / ensembles that would keep Florence away from the east coast by late next week. The same lack of upper level flow that killed the tornado season could make the hurricane season a lot more interesting. This is a go storm for me right now. AL 92 is also a system to watch. The next 3-5 forecasting days are going to be interesting. Get ready.
2nd section of disturbance (tropical wave) is emerging from the coast of Africa. Medium chance to grow into a depression the next 5 days. 92 AL has good potential because of strong conditions. Sea surface temperatures look good to me (28/29 degrees). Florence might hit the US coast as a cat 3.
@Warren Faidley are you this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Faidley famous person?
I don't consider myself famous, but yes.
Focusing more on AL92 than Florence. Florence will likely have some impact on the east coast, but if it moves too far N/NE - those areas are not great for onshore tropical chasing and I'd rather chase a Gulf or Florida storm. AL92 will be interesting once (and if) it becomes a tropical cyclone and the models have a better handle on it. Hopefully it will not track over areas hit last year.
“Faidley is credited as the world's first full-time professional storm chaser.” Not famous? He is often referred to as America's ‘Top Storm Chaser.’” Still not famous? “Faidley's images, stories of adventure and video clips have been used in countless publications and productions around the world including National Geographic, The Discovery Channel and The Weather Channel.” At least a thousand pictures of Warren Faidley on the internet. You have to get good credit for chasing dust devils on a bike. Lmao. Brave.
On a more serious note,
I can’t stop having this feeling that 92AL’s track might be very similar to Irma’s. 93AL just got declared high chance of development! This feels like Irma and Maria, one after the other.
Florence dropping all the way down to a tropical storm. Disappointing. Spaghetti models show Florence hitting the North Carolina/Virginia border as a category 3 hurricane though. Check model intensity graphs for 93AL. It looks something like rapid intensification?
Still too early to hit the red alert for Florence, although it's still likely the east coast will have some form of tropical cyclone weather. Will need to see how it redevelops, as models always have trouble with storms that phase from TS back to Hurricanes. With tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday, there is not a whole lot of time if people lose track over the weekend. Would expect TWC to go into crisis mode soon.
Wow, spaghetti is freaking out. Looks like Florence will do quite a bit of damage as it hits the east coast. Intensity chart depicts Florence hitting as a category 4.
The two regions of interest have grown into tropical depressions. You gotta take a good look at this though.