Hurricane Matthew Official Thread

Steve Miller

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The Hurricane Hunters investigating 97L, the strong tropical wave now moving through the Windward Islands, found that it now has a closed circulation and is stronger, so it is now Tropical Storm Matthew with winds of 60 mph. Tropical storm conditions are likely today for many of the islands in the Lesser Antilles as Matthew moves through. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days and Matthew is expected to become a hurricane. In the near term the track forecast for Matthew is straightforward: continuing on toward the west-northwest or west into the Caribbean while gradually slowing down. Toward the weekend the uncertainty grows. Most models have Matthew making a sharp turn toward the north and moving toward Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and then the Bahamas. If it were to take this course Matthew could also go on to affect parts of the U.S. East Coast and Atlantic Canada next week. However, even though model agreement is good, a track more into the western Caribbean or perhaps even the Gulf of Mexico cannot quite be ruled out yet.
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MClarkson

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a track more into the western Caribbean or perhaps even the Gulf of Mexico cannot quite be ruled out yet.
Agreed. There is a slight chance that the storm "misses its turn" so to speak, although odds are its going north. This one has me pretty interested... there have not been too many model runs lately that don't significantly strengthen this storm.
 

Steve Miller

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We quietly introduced a new radar viewer over the past week. If you haven't checked it out, here ya go: http://stormtrack.org/imap - or you can click "iMap" in the menu above.
I just positioned the view to be optimal for TS Matthew. Give it a view and message me if you have ideas or concerns.

Now let's get this thread going! This one could get interesting.
 
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Apr 5, 2010
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I do believe we have ourselves a hurricane, gentlemen. So which way does it go?

Euro - Paths anywhere from Yucatan>S Texas all the way to Bermuda. It's a mess of spaghetti.
GFS - Several historical similarities represented by ensemble paths: Hugo, Sandy, Bob, Donna?

GFS and a couple other models take this up to a Borderline Cat 3/4 off the SE coast pretty consistently. Landfall likely as a weak Cat 3 or Strong Cat 2 along the mid-Atlantic and the booking NNE into New England Whilst maintaining Cat 1 wind speeds until Maine.

All of this is a moot point, of course, if the trough picks Matthew up and throws it east faster than the models predict. That being said, we could see a major issue along the east coast in about a week. How do Hurricanes impact elections?
 

Ryan Toemmes

I'm hoping we don't have a carbon copy of Hurricane Charlie 2004...

The future computer model forecasting has been everywhere on this storm because of the variables in the Caribbean Sea & Gulf of Mexico...

The timing of the Trough pushing east is key on this storm turning north...

Elections...

No impact here... Miami just shrugs it off...


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Ryan Toemmes

P3 Orion Hurricane Hunter Aircraft now reporting from Matthew Hurricane center...

No solid defined wide eye wall just yet... Barometric pressure continues to fall as storm strengthens...

If you decide to check flight status of Hurricane Hunter Aircraft...

http://www.403wg.afrc.af.mil/About/FactSheets/Display/tabid/9106/Article/192529/53rd-weather-reconnaissance-squadron-hurricane-hunters.aspx

Live status briefings from researchers up every few hours...

www.flightaware.com

8fdd14d63db2c46fc652c765b0c33580.jpg

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/


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Wow, I posted yesterday right as it hit Cat 1....24 hours later its Almost Cat 5. (Hurricane hunters found peak winds at 158mph...) So it may already be a Cat 5. This thing is a beast, and where ever it goes, it's going to be bad. That straight north track looking less likely now as the storm will be powerful enough to create its own high pressure ridge aloft. Expect a path more W of the models, as they tend to path Cat 5's poorly in this situation...
 
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Fascinating to watch this event unfold. Anecdotally, it seems extremely unusual for a hurricane to come up the east coast coming from such a low latitude; most of the ones that come up the coast do so from a track that previously ran more along Puerto Rico's latitude. The predicted nearly 90-degree right turn at that latitude is itself highly unusual.

Latitude aside, my understanding from another weather forum is that only three hurricanes have ever had east coast landfalls north of Florida in Oct or Nov - one of them being Sandy.

There has been a lot of vacillation with the GFS, the latest 0z had it out to sea, but the 6z run shows it right along the Delmarva by next Sat - similar in position (but different in timing) to yesterday's 12z run.


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Steve Miller

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I can't believe how consistent the GFS has been with #Matthew regarding his track that hugs the U.S. east coast throughout late week.
On a different note, many of you will want to check out the social channels Stormtrack member @Bart_Comstock maintains. He is in Jamaica doing stringer work for WeatherNation. That's some pretty scary potential given the lawlessness that native Jamaica offers. Those of you who have been to, or are familiar with, Jamaica will understand what I'm saying. Anyway, here are a couple spots to follow along:
https://www.facebook.com/bart.comstock?fref=ts
https://twitter.com/SvrWxChaser
 
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My hats off to Bart for going there. Its a tough place to shoot. I've been there twice. First time, no problem. Second time was a nightmare. A cab driver veered down a side street and was preparing to take us to robbers, a well known tactic. The other guy in the taxi was an ex-Navy Seal and he put a choke hold on the driver forcing him to back up as the two bandits armed with machetes ran after us. Despite the problems, it is a great place to buy fake Rolex watches.
 

Dan Robinson

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I understand the desperation for a hurricane chase after such a long US landfall drought - but, man, I'd never consider intercepting in a third-world country like that. Not unless I had a US military escort! Warren, that story is exactly the type of thing I envision happening! Easy targets, expensive camera gear, a post-disaster dystopia, no real help to call on. It's just nuts to go down there.
 
The other problem with chasing major hurricanes in the Caribbean is timing. It's very unproductive and quite dangerous to try and cover a hurricane at night. With the smaller landmass targets (as opposed to the expansive US coastline) you run the risk of either missing the event to darkness, you get the offshore winds or miss the storm entirely. It's impossible to relocate as the smaller airports stop operations way in advance. The satellite image looked a lot better this morning and the convective complex to the east has dissipated. It's quite possible Matthew could go through an eyewall replacement and rapidly go back to Cat-5 strength. Looks like Jamaica could miss the most intense part of the storm if the NHC track holds. Haiti may take the brunt of the storm.
 
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MClarkson

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Jamaica is looking more and more like a pretty clean miss. That western tip of Haiti could get drilled. Thats major flash flooding terrain too... 5000 foot peaks grabbing onshore major hurricane moisture? A slow moving hurricane at that?
 
Latest NHC forecast moves Matthew much closer to the Florida coastline. Watches likely later tonight or tomorrow. My how things have suddenly changed!

Its going to be a nerve-racking forecast I think for the next few days as the path may just skim the coastlines of Florida northward with various impacts depending on where the core moves. More so, I think the intensity will be a wild card.
 
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Ryan Toemmes

Did you guys see the latest pressure drop at 8:00 PM / EDT

934 MB ¥ dropping

Total diameter increase in storm size on all 4 quadrants...

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Dan Robinson

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Google image searches show the type of structures in the areas that are likely to see some of the most intense parts of Matthew. Looking at satellite images, it doesn't look like there are any dense population centers in that part of the country, thankfully. The flooding impacts to the east may be the bigger threat.

Tiburon, Haiti:
https://www.google.com/search?q=tiburon+haiti&safe=strict&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjW-dPF-b_PAhXH8YMKHZNiBDUQ_AUICSgC&biw=1920&bih=971

Plansinte, Haiti:
https://www.google.com/search?q=tiburon+haiti&safe=strict&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjW-dPF-b_PAhXH8YMKHZNiBDUQ_AUICSgC&biw=1920&bih=971#safe=strict&tbm=isch&q=plansinte+haiti

Carrefour Gros Chaudiere, Haiti
https://www.google.com/search?q=tiburon+haiti&safe=strict&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjW-dPF-b_PAhXH8YMKHZNiBDUQ_AUICSgC&biw=1920&bih=971#safe=strict&tbm=isch&q=carrefour+gros+chaudiere+haiti
 
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Ryan Toemmes

Hurricane Matthew Tornados / Waterspout video and still images...


Jamaica waterspout off east coast...

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Tornado touch down in Dominican Republic...

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Ryan Toemmes

Haiti Storm Surge and Landfall of Hurricane Matthew 7:10 AM / EDT - October 4, 2016









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Mark Blue

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I bookmarked this Cuba radar sites awhile back. It's nice when a Tropical system passes nearby to watch the eye wall action. The eastern seaboard appears to be under the gun from Matthew over the next few days.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

This visible looper shows how expansive Matthew is at the current hour:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12
 

Craig A. Green

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12Z GFS brings the center of circulation across the shore just south of Vero Beach and tracks along the coast until King's Bay, GA.

This put the dirty side onshore with attendant storm surge with low tide at landfall. If this tracks like the 12Z up through the Space then Palm Coast to GA, major flooding, wind damage, and wide spread power outages are assured.

Run to run both the ECMWF and GFS have bought the center of circulation westward since Sunday.

At 120 hrs, the ridge to the east brings Matthew back down south as recurvature from the E CONUS trough does not occur.

Maybe a Round Two?

Craig KV5E
 

Steve Miller

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Of additional interest is that after taking Matthew up towards the Georgia coast, the new run continues to send Matthew back south and the southwest as some earlier GFS and Euro runs have done. However, instead of turning Matthew back out to sea eventually, the new run takes a vastly weaker Matthew across Florida and into the Gulf by Tuesday next week, with it then meandering in the eastern Gulf. The GFS has it very weak at that time, at only tropical depression strength. This is similar to what the Euro run did midday yesterday.