Hurricane Irma 2017

Discussion in 'Tropical forum' started by Warren Faidley, Aug 31, 2017.

  1. Jack Sillin

    Jack Sillin Lurker

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  2. Jack Sillin

    Jack Sillin Lurker

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  3. JamesCaruso

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    From news reports this morning it sounds like the southwest coast didn't get quite the level of surge expected. Is that because of the pre blowout tides / "reverse surge" from the offshore wind? And/or because the onshore winds in the southern eyewall weren't as strong? There didn't seem to be much left to the southern eyewall the whole day, and even just watching live coverage from Naples you never saw much wind return after the eye had passed.


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  4. Jack Sillin

    Jack Sillin Lurker

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    SW coast didn't get the surge quite as bad due to the weaker nature of the storm as well as the track slightly to the east. If the center tracked offshore, those 130 mph offshore winds observed in Naples and at Marco would've been much more onshore and then you would've been in big trouble. Weakening due to Cuba also played a part.. Weakening Cat 3 =/= steady Cat 4/5. It was bad for many areas, but nowhere near as bad as it could've been!
     
  5. Jack Sillin

    Jack Sillin Lurker

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  6. Jeff House

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    Lower surge west was 100% due to the track. Saffir-Simpson scale is obsolete. Irma ACE number remained exceptional. East coast of Florida had impressive (a couple records) surge considering landfall was on another coast!
     
  7. JamesCaruso

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    IDK, do you really think the lower surge on the west coast of FL was only due to the track? The track really wasn't all that different than forecast within the last 24 hours that it was affecting FL. The surge forecasts were high even when it was known the hurricane would be along the west coast, meaning it would have to be driven by the southern eyewall which would bring the onshore flow. But at least based on radar, the southern eyewall was already eroding at 7:15 in the morning while Irma was still in the Keys.

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  8. Jack Sillin

    Jack Sillin Lurker

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    Track was a significant player in the lack of surge in Tampa/Ft Meyers area. Onshore track to the east of those cities prevented RFQ surge and the earlier landfall helped accelerate weakening of southern eyewall. Furthermore, this would me a MUCH different conversation had it not been for the track wobble into Cuba. Was it 100% track? No, dry air and shear played a part, but it was probably >95% track :)
     
  9. JamesCaruso

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    I agree with respect to Tampa and Fort Meyers. But some of the highest surge was forecast on the southwestern coast, south of Naples. The hurricane was forecast to be offshore at that latitude, and it was in fact still offshore. Even the right front quadrant would have produced more of an offshore wind at that location, so it had to be the onshore flow in the southern eyewall that was expected to produce the surge, and I think that southern eyewall had weakened considerably.

    Not trying to be argumentative, obviously there are a ton of variables in the mix. I am mainly trying to understand if my theory is correct and if the southern eyewall did in fact weaken, because I can only go on the weakened radar reflectivity image that I saved and posted above. I realize this doesn't necessarily mean that the winds had also weakened, so that's what I am trying to find out, how much of a factor was it. By the time the hurricane had passed north of the Keys, there were no more surface wind observations coming from that station so I don't know what the winds in the southern eyewall were like. But I did notice from live reporting from Naples that after the eye had passed there wasn't much wind blowing at all.




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  10. JamesCaruso

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    Warren, just wondering about the results of your chase, in an early post you said you were heading to someplace in FL, I can't remember where but I'm sure your initial target changed anyway.

    Apparently there were chasers in Key West at some sturdy "concrete hotel of at 7 (?) stories built in 1926." I also learned that Key West has an 18 foot elevation but I'm not sure how much of the island is at that elevation. Would you have considered that scenario safe or do you think Key West turned out OK only because the right front quadrant missed the island? I might actually consider trying a Key West intercept in the future if there is an opportunity. There were also chasers in Big Pine Key, now THAT seems suicidal to me but then again I don't know too much about that particular island...


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  11. Bob Schafer

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  12. Warren Faidley

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    Wild chase considering the last few hours of drama over where Irma would go. Could write volumes about the last week. The eastern coast was still my target -- despite a lot of media people blasting off Friday night to head west. I surmised the accumulated surge momentum would still effect the east coast. The biggest surprise was wind. It will be interesting to study the wind reports in the Miami area. I could not stand for long periods of time as the wind was simply too strong to work in. Debris from skyscrapers was a constant threat. The was wind coming directly off the water, not compressed winds through structures. I saw at least two strong vortices move in from the east. The first struck me on the walkway next to the bay and nearly carried me into the water after forcing me to slide on the concrete for about 10 feet. It took out a fortified glass and brick partition behind me. I ended up with some cuts but overall, I was extremely lucky. Got some great footage, which I never expected after Irma kept heading west. I spend the rest of the evening and the next morning checking the area for victims. Fortunately, the only thing I found was a small puffer fish washed ashore and gasping for water. I put it in the water and it swam away. I figured I owed Neptune a favor.

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  13. Rob Wadsworth

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    Anyone have any useful/interesting links to the coastal erosion caused by the surge?
     
  14. Warren Faidley

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    FEMA always posts (open to the public) satellite images of post-storm surge and erosion damage for rescue and recovery operations. I saw images covering portions of western Florida and especially the keys. I don't have a link, but it's an easy Internet search.
     
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  15. Jeff Wright

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    I thought I heard that Irma may wind up merging with Jose...
     
  16. rdale

    rdale EF5

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    Irma died near St Louis Missouri.
     
  17. Jeff Wright

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    That's right...starting to lose track Maria and Jose then.
     
  18. Alex Elmore

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    I don't think there's enough left of Jose to merge with now, let alone when Maria catches it.
     

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