Coming up with an objective way to rank chase days/seasons

Discussion in 'Advanced weather & chasing' started by Dan Robinson, Mar 20, 2018.

  1. Dan Robinson

    Dan Robinson WxLibrary Editor
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    Using the still-experimental Quality Index, the May 28 storm-level score is 57, which is higher than any ranked-to-this-point storm in 2017.

    http://stormhighway.com/qi.php

    May 28 won't score that high on the event-level, since only one target out of two/three performed tornado-wise, but it is still enough to at least get 2018 out of contention for worst season ever, at least by this metric. In 2006, there were no good events available during peak season (and I understand 1988-89 were similarly destitute).
     
  2. Ethan Schisler

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    Unless I’m reading that chart wrong....I don’t see how May 28th can rank above Bowdle, Pilger, Cherokee OK, Carpenter, plus many other much more quality chase days. Maybe it’s just my opinion but all those aforementioned days were much greater of quality and intensity than May 28th both on a meteorological and chase scale. No disrespect I just was truly curious as to how that was calculated. Mods if this is off topic feel free to remove.
     
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    #27 Ethan Schisler, Jun 5, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2018
  3. Dan Robinson

    Dan Robinson WxLibrary Editor
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    That's mainly because the scale takes points off for human impacts (deaths, injuries, damage etc) - the second column from the last is the value before the negative points are applied.
     
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  4. Michael Norris

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    I'm curious how huge outbreaks such as April 27th 2011 would stack up using this. Sure the shear number of tornadoes, the rare magnitude of the event, etc. may lend itself to a higher ranking, however the devastating cost in life and property would knock it down quite a bit as well. Come to think of it, I'm not even sure how feasible it would be to attempt to rank such huge, widespread events.
     
  5. Michael Gavan

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    I've had a project going on Discord that roughly parallels this concept but its more of a 'here's all the data we have' and trying to subject-ify it as much as possible. Since my thread title would be too similar I think i'll just piggy back on to this one.

    The questions we are trying to answer is A) What seasons are over/underrated. B) How Chase-able was X season. C) How do bad years compare to good by the numbers. D) What would storm chasing have been like in years like 1965, 1991, etc for those of us who weren't around, alive, or old enough to experience them.

    Reduced to ONLY M-A-M-J.

    One data set includes all plains states. MT WY ND SD CO NE MN IA IL IN KS OK NM TX

    Another data set includes just KS N-TX and OK. I called this one the "Norman Index" The most typical chase territory of say, an OU student or someone who lives in the OKC metro specifically because of their hobby or job related to chasing.

    From there, I wanted to compare quality, quantity, by days and by totals. I'll post some graphs. Attempt to upload the data. and then give a few parting thoughts.
     

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  6. Michael Gavan

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    The above graph are IDEAL tornadoes. It's a stab in the dark since we can't tell from this data if we are looking at a rain wrapped garbage heap long track QLCS tornado, or Lazbuddie / DDC / Mulvane caliber tornadoes.

    Below are tornado DAYS that meet the same criteria. Both are the Norman Index data.
     

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  7. Michael Gavan

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    The data set, manipulations, formulas. By all means take a stab at the data yourselves if you want to call out something more interesting, like. Violent Tornado days on the plains, or break things down by month etc.

    https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachme...481/Norman_Index_-_Tornado_Chasing_Stats.xlsx

    https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachme...456131801132302366/Tornado_Chasing_Stats.xlsx

    Attached are "Tornado days by year, for the plains, M-A-M-J."


    Here are my own thoughts, musings.
    For me personally. I set out to 'prove' (disprove) my logic that 1990-1991 are the peak of chase-ability and that modern storm chasers would likely not even know what to do with themselves with that much action. In some ways, that seems to be the case, but apparently the 1960's and 70's were living like it was 1991 every year.


    -Good/Bad years seem to come in pairs
    -The number of tornadoes is increasing, however the number of damaging tornadoes is decreasing (Well spread assumption/fact)
    -The number of Damaging tornado days 1950 - 1985 were much more numerous than the last 3 decades. by a 2:1 margin in fact.
    -We are having fewer outbreaks in the last 30 years, but that are more destructive.
    Changes to the F/EF ratings, Increase in construction/sprawl/moving to the city/fewer-smaller rural towns, fewer-larger farms. all probably play a role.
    -But the number of quality tornado DAYS is largely consistent
    -2015 is apparently the most underrated chase year ever. Thoughts?
    -1990-1991 are absolutely astonishing years. They may be almost singlehandedly responsible for modern storm chasing....
    ----I for one was inspired at 10 years old by Andover. I was already a weather nerd but this event put me over the top. Because of the nexus of banner chase-ability and the sudden pervasiveness of good quality color home video coming together... it inspired that generation of adults to make new documentaries, jumpstarted Vortex, resulted in a blockbuster movie soon after, and all of the echoes of storm chasing after that. You can almost see people dreaming about DOW trucks and turtle pods while watching the amazing footage of the early 90s. Had the droughts of 87-88 continued a bit longer, perhaps storm chasing, and tornado research for that matter, as we know it may have been set back as much as a decade.
     

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  8. Shane Adams

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    5-3-99 had way more than 5 photogenic tornadoes. There were 5 from Storm A alone.
     

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