Accuweather says NHC is much less confident than they are

Nov 12, 2004
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http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-stor...ler=0&article=4

And just in case it disappears...

The awesome power of nature will be in full display as Rita heads toward the Gulf Coast Friday night into Saturday. The graphic above shows the huge extent of the powerful winds of Rita as forecast by AccuWeather.com meteorologists. Our new map of the potential for hurricane-force winds shows a high probability across much of eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Over a fairly large swath of coastal northeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana, winds above hurricane force are virtually a certainty.

The graphic from the National Hurricane Center shows much less confidence in the storm's impact. This product is designed to be used by government and emergency management officials. Their forecast is for less than a 50% chance of hurricane force winds along the coast of northeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.
I suppose thats the great thing about America, competition. From what I've seen I like the job NHC is doing though.

...Alex Lamers...
 
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As far as I am concerned, it is not important who is the "most accurate" in the predictions. I think it is much more important for the information to get out as quickly and to as many people as possible. I guess its not enough any more to do the compassionate thing and just care about the safety of other human beings, you just have to show that you were right and the "experts" were not.
 

B Ozanne

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Accuweather has almost no accountability. They can make these bold claims and predictions. When they don't come true there's no skin off their back, after all it is weather forecasting. If they are correct than they will look like the smartest people in the world and never stop gloating.
 
Jun 15, 2005
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Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
Accuweather blasting the NHC? Remember the scathing article they wrote about NHC a couple of hours ago? :roll:

I remember that ... not to mention the numerous articles calling for an end to the NWS and a privitization of all weather services. Being a graduate of PSU and State College I detest Accuweather even though many of my good friends work there and note that they hate it as well.

Stupid Joel Myers ...
 

B Ozanne

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Wait a minute, a few hours ago Succuweather was virtually guaranteeing a hit on Galveston. Now they changed their "guarantee" to Port Arthur.

I could s**t in a box and mark it guaranteed, but all you'd get is a guaranteed piece of crap.
 
Jun 15, 2005
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Originally posted by B Ozanne
Wait a minute, a few hours ago Succuweather was virtually guaranteeing a hit on Galveston. Now they changed their \"guarantee\" to Port Arthur.

I could s**t in a box and mark it guaranteed, but all you'd get is a guaranteed piece of crap.

Just saw Joey on Hannity and Colmes and he still stickin' with Galveston to which he said would be the place all along since Monday ...

Joey Bastard-i
 
Originally posted by Benjamin Sipprell+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Benjamin Sipprell)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-B Ozanne
Wait a minute, a few hours ago Succuweather was virtually guaranteeing a hit on Galveston. Now they changed their \"guarantee\" to Port Arthur.

I could s**t in a box and mark it guaranteed, but all you'd get is a guaranteed piece of crap.

Just saw Joey on Hannity and Colmes and he still stickin' with Galveston to which he said would be the place all along since Monday ...

Joey Bastard-i[/b]
I'll have to hand it to the guy - in the winter time, he's pretty accurate when it comes to long range forecasting...
 
AccuWeather is pretty pathetic. If they bashed the NHC in an online news story (which I'd like to see if anyone has it), it may be worth complaining to their CEO about how embarrassing they are to the rest of us Meteorologists out here. I mean, that gives us private sector guys a bad name.

An FWIW, I'd love to see A-Wx pull the the tapes and show me that their landfall has been consistent since Monday. I clearly recall them saying Port Lavaca, TX.
 
Dec 9, 2003
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Originally posted by HAltschule
AccuWeather is pretty pathetic. If they bashed the NHC in an online news story (which I'd like to see if anyone has it), it may be worth complaining to their CEO about how embarrassing they are to the rest of us Meteorologists out here. I mean, that gives us private sector guys a bad name.

An FWIW, I'd love to see A-Wx pull the the tapes and show me that their landfall has been consistent since Monday. I clearly recall them saying Port Lavaca, TX.
And you may be able to search through the Stormtrack archives to find the thread about Accu strongly bashing the NHC... It's from last year I think... Or the year before, in which case you won't be able to search for it (maybe you can search the old YahooGroups Stormtrack, which is pre-phpBB).
 
Oct 25, 2004
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Well, for once I don't have an opinion. I have noticed that for Katrina and now this 'cane....when I come home from work and am filthy dirty and worn out....AccuWeather is all over the t.v. What is it about them that torques you guys off so vehemently??
 

nywxperson

Joey Goombah from Accuweather - ack!

Joey Goombah from Acuweather is perhaps the single most annoying meteorologist I have ever seen on TV. He's like that annoying Sopranos-wanna-be guido from high school who couldn't get enough of his hearing own nasal-Yonkers-twang.

Loud, egotistical, insecure, and really not that bright.....
 
Jun 22, 2005
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I highly dislike accuweather....they're not accurate. Seriously, the NHC does a much better job than they do...but competition is what drives America. Accuweather was trying to make online forecasts to buy, and change that they are free. It's also like all the news stations do this....Hurricane Central -- Hurricane Arena -- Hurricane Source. All trying to compete...
 
Apr 28, 2005
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The bad things about accuweather

1. They're annoying.
2. They're still bragging about the two correct predictions they made from last year, but fail to talk about the three million incorrect predictions they've made this last month.
3. They're constantly bashing the NHC.
4. They SUCK.

The good things

1. They're always on whenever CNN, MSNBC, and TWC are on commercials, therefore I always find myself watching them. Afterwards I always seem to go and beat my idiotic head in with a bat after hearing and catching myslef listening to all thier BS.
So i guess its not a good thing after all.
 

Michael Auker

Accuweather must not have very visionary PR personnel. They could better achieve their objective if they avoided antagonizing so many people. Not that I would want them to succeed.
 

Anonymous

Everything else aside... for them to come on TV and start confusing everyone is out of line. Do they have a fleet of aircraft - NO. If this kind of sorcering starts to become common place -- what is next? Vegas odds on where a storm will hit.

The NHC is still the best there is.

Mike
 
Dec 4, 2003
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I'm puzzled why no one has done a study on them to measure their skill vs. that of the NWS. All the numbers (like highs and lows) are online all the time from both places... someone just needs to collect them and crunch them, and report on it. A lot of people would be interested, I'm sure.

Probably not a big enough sample size to measure hurricane accuracy though.

Tim
 
Interesting observation, Tim. I now they are on WABC in NYC, so that compared to the NWS forecast could be a good 1 on 1 comparison.

Further, a landfall comparison against NHC would certainly be interesting. Each time when an advisory comes out, there can be a track map from A-wx and one from NHC. One would be able to see who was more accurate and who had bigger distance errors (in approximate miles).

Finally, Accuweather would not have us considering these options had they not been so vocal and bashing of the NWS and NHC.
 

Steve Miller

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Jun 14, 2004
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What is interesting to me is that Accuweather bases their Hurricane forecasts off of model data, satellite products, hurricane hunters' reconnaissance missions, etc. Just like the NHC. The key here is interpretation of the data... Period.
Since the models, satellite images and flights into hurricanes are mostly created and supported by Gov’t employees and Gov’t $$, perhaps if Accuweather keeps attacking NOAA, they should be cut off from the tools they need to effectively operate their business...
Okay, that is more communist that capitalist but why bite the hand that feeds you? Accuweather has very few active competitors, why spend the time and money to go after the U.S. Gov’t (Santorum Bill)? Why confuse hurricane evacuees, business interests, etc. by announcing on national TV that their hurricane track and overall ability to forecast is better than NHC?
Okay, I'm done now...
 
Oct 25, 2004
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Thanks Howie, but I couldn't garner much info from that. Are their forecasts consistently way off the mark?
For the little bit I've been able to watch of this event....I guess I've managed to see 3 or 4 AccuWeather spots....with only the one forecaster each time..Mr. Bastardi. (Oh dude....don't you KNOW that he's had to fistfight ALL his life). Anyhow, what I saw wasn't pompousness as much as confidence. To me, ohhh that's refreshing. In this upside down world of today...with all it's putrid political correctness...people are afraid to "offend" everybody and everything. This guy Bastardi just stepped up and belted out his forecast....putting his name and his company's reputation out there for all to size up. You don't see guys doing that hardly at all anymore...and I dig it!
But there must be a lot that I've missed regarding AccuWeather. With so many folks dogging them here in the forums....there must be something that I've obviously missed. And that's what I was hoping to find out. Thanks Joel in Tucson
 
Oct 25, 2004
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Well, I know that I'm responding to my own last post, but after reading all the posts above me, I now HATE 'EM TOO! lol.
What did it to me is reading about the Santorum bill...and how AccuWx backs it. Yeah, that did it.
Thanks for getting me up to speed on this outfit, fellas.