4/9/04: FCST: N TX & S OK

Dec 4, 2003
There's a patch of low clouds in the Texas Hill Country that bears watching. It appears to be stratocumulus from what I can tell, and it's overlaid with some faster-moving cirrus (indicated on DRT sounding). The RUC is not picking this up and it may represent a chunk of better theta-e later in the day. SJT VWP shows SSW flow at 20-40 kt, so if this patch represents anything it might be worth keeping an eye on parcels in central Texas up to SEP/MWL/FTW.


George Tincher

Well, as of 9:40 AM CDT, it appears that most of the rain is confined to areas of NC OK and points N of that, leaving most of S OK and TX rain free. Satellite shows some clearing over this same area, at least as far as the heavy cloud cover. Hopefully those remaining clouds will will disintegrate as the day progresses allowing some good heating to take place. Surface obs from the area will follow shortly.


George Tincher

9 AM CDT Surface obs round-up

Ardmore, OK
temp: 57
DP: 50
Winds: Calm

Lawton, OK
Temp: 57
DP: 55
Winds: ESE @ 12 mph

Paul's Valley, OK
Temp: 61
DP: 46
Winds: E @ 5 mph

Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX
Temp: 64
DP: 55
Winds: SSW @ 7 mph

Waco, TX
Temp: 63
dp: 57
winds: calm

Wichita Falls, TX
Temp: 60
DP: 54
Winds: E @ 7 mph
Dec 8, 2003
Kansas City, Missouri
Hope everyone down there has fun today (enjoy it, because it may be the last chance for a bit) - hopefully moisture concerns become less of an issue as the day goes on and that good air trucks itself northward ... things might still pop with 50-55td ... maybe dryline forcing will help make up for any deficiencies.

Mike U - wish you were chasing on more than radar ... would make for good video tomorrow ... have a safe trip up to Lawrence - - -

Kevin Scharfenberg

With surface heating underway (or soon underway) in southern Oklahoma, I think weak evapotranspiration and "dewpoint pooling" will be sufficient to raise surface dewpoints to the 58-60 range. Advection alone is certainly not going to do it with such weak wind fields! Those dewpoints will be quite shallow, as the regional soundings suggest 11 g/kg is the best we will be able to muster for the mixed layer.

So, given this idea, the fact I have the afternoon off and nothing better to do, I will probably wander on down to southern Oklahoma to play along the remnant boundary, perhaps where it intersects the weak/diffuse dryline. Deep shear is sufficient for supercell structure, but the high cloud base and poor low level shear suggests tornado potential would be limited to landspout-type vortices.

Target: Alma, Oklahoma (someone else already picked Velma!) 8)
Dec 4, 2003
Norman, OK
Was waiting for the magic 15z obs to come out ...
Looks like the warm front is currently lurking south of DFW. Big negatives so far are the dewpoints and winds. A good point is the clear skies so should be more than sufficient warming. Also like the 50 KT SW winds at 500 mb...at least there's shear. Hints of the dryline look to be setting up in the eastern Panhandle area.
If I were out there, think I'd be lurking near Gainesville TX. Unfortunately, I'll be cyber-chasing since I had to work last night :( .
Good luck, safe travels and happy hunting to all who are out!!


George Tincher

Well, I just ran another quick check on the sfc obs and dewpoints are still just in the mid to upper 50's at best over most of TX. To find a reading of 60 or above, I had to go all the way down to Houston. And the DP there was only 61. :(

It appears if it's gonna do it, it's gonna have to do it with 55-60 TD's at best. But I won't totally give up just yet. Hopefully there will be something out there to make it worth the trouble for those chasing. But I just don't see much in the way of moisture advection heading northward.