3/27 FCST: KS/OK/TX

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Dec 9, 2003
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Oklahoma
I thought I would open this thread up since it appears that things MAY be active across the area Saturday...

Looking at the 0z Thurs ETA run, things don't look very promising across OK and surrounding states for Saturday. I mean, the greatest instability is across western OK, while the best low-level shear is removed to the east of the instability, into eastern OK. Wind structure across the area is also unfavorable...

HOWEVER, the 0z Thurs GFS is much more promising! The trough is progged to remain open and progressive through the day, even taking on a slight negative tilt at the upper levels. Surface moisture is progged to be plentiful, and the jet structures across the area yield quite nice shear profiles. From this GFS run, I could see there being a risk of a significant severe weather event across the OK/south KS/north TX. One of the cons I see right now is the fact that the dryline/front is progged to remain west of the area... However, if there is a some trigger mechanism around to initiate convection, things could be quite nice!

Jeff
KC0HJX
www.tornadocentral.com
 
Feb 25, 2004
67
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Norman, OK
weather.ou.edu
Saturday looks to be somewhat promising in the NW OK/SW KS area. The new Eta run (not sure what time) has CAPE values over 2500 j/kg for an area around Alva, OK / Medicine Lodge, KS. The shear doesn't look too bad, looks like 850 mb winds will be between 30 and 40 kts in that area. The only thing that doesn't look great is the trough at 500 mb. It's becoming more positively tilted as time goes on (at least thats what I'm getting from the Eta). So we'll see! I'm up for chasing this weekend. Something to get the bad taste of the March 4th high risk squall line out of my mouth! If I had to pick a target right now, I'd say Hardtner, KS.
 
Mar 2, 2004
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Wichita, KS
www.facebook.com
Dec 9, 2003
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Oklahoma
I surprised this thread has been so quiet. With model solutions, it looks like there could be some significant supercells in ICT to SPS tomorrow. THe ETA seems to be coming in line with the GFS in showing stronger flow at almost all levels, compared to previous runs. The trough is forecast to take on a negative tilt tomorrow, and the area will be in the left-front exit zone of a strong jet stream diving down the backside of the trough. All models forecast at least moderate instability (CAPES ~2000 and LIs near -7) and deep layer shear... I still think we'll end up w/ a mdt risk once it appears that this instability will actually develop as forecast...

One of my concerns regards low-level shear. Both models forecast the 850mb jet axis to be east of I-44 by Sat afternoon and evening, with many areas in western OK (primarily northwestern OK) having relatively weak low-level flow, which decreases the low-level shear across that area. This may be negated, however, by winds backing more-than-model-forecast to the east of the subsynoptic low progged to develop from near Shamrock into sw OK...

I am no longer too concerned about squall line development immediately. None of the models I've looked at really forecast UVVs that are that strong. Yes, 500/700UVVs across the aarea by tomorrow late afternoon will be decent, but nothing that would denote, to me at least, a strongly-forced squall line. The speed of the cold front cruising on down through KS may be an issue for those in KS, but I don't really see it being an issue tomorrow afternoon or early evening for those chasing in OK or northern TX....

Jeff
 
The 18z MesoEta is suggesting that a supercell could blow up in SW Oklahoma ahead of the dry line Saturday afternoon. Wind profiles look favorable for rotation. Surface temps could be 85-90 near the dry line toward Altus....I'll head from Tulsa to OKC by late morning tomorrow, and decide from there later.
 

Shane Adams

After my brief perusing of models, I'm likely headed to NW Oklahoma tomorrow. Target town as of now looks like the Enid, OK area. Looks like the ETA is being strangely stingy with precip by 0Z, as there is squat anywhere in OK by 7pm tomorrow. I don't buy it. The CAPE is there, the moisture is there (and it appears deep enough). Tonight's convection through tomorrow morning will be a big player I think. Basically gonna get up early and start the satellite loops/WV imagery/surface obs.

UVV spikes stacked nicely throughout NW/Central OK between 18-0Z. I think there's a reason for that. But as I mentioned, I just looked very briefly to get some idea so I'd have something to answer with at the party in a short while :lol:
 

Scott Roberts

If I were chasing, I'd be heading southwest from ICT. But I'll be handling our chasers in the ICT area and points west, so won't be able to go south where it looks like the show will be. It'll be interesting to see how the ongoing showers in central Kansas stabilize things, and whether we clear out soon enough to get things back on the unstable side.

Scott Roberts, Chase Coordinator
KWCH TV-12 Wichita

personal chasing site: www.ksstorm.info
 

Kevin Scharfenberg

Short version: A few supercells will develop along the dryline in Oklahoma, but the atmosphere will not be "prime" for a major tornado event. Storm mode will tend toward quasi-linear/MCS within a few hours of initiation.

Long version: Tonight, the vort max over Arizona analyzed at 00Z has started moving into west central NM. As this approaches the plains overnight and the LLJ kicks up even more, I'd expect the convection over northwest OK and southwest KS to increase in coverage and intensity.

The 00Z eta suggests the system may come out in at least two pieces tomorrow, with this lead vort max now entering NM passing through Kansas during the morning. That would cause the low-level winds to veer somewhat with time, and clouds and precipitation to continue in northern OK and KS during the morning.

The target area during midday will briefly come under the influence of subsidence after the first vort max passes. Meanwhile, farther west, the dryline will finally begin moving as the stronger upper winds approach and deep mixing west of the dryline kicks in. So, I think there will be a narrow north-south zone of clearing ahead of the advancing dryline and behind the retreating lead vort max. The ageostrophic forcing will help the low-level winds to back again later in the afternoon.

Finally, very strong forcing for upward motion will coincide with the dryline advancing into the strong low level jet and deep moisture during the evening over western Oklahoma. New initiation is very likely, and the most interesting location may be near where the dryline intersects any leftover boundaries between the rain-cooled air to the north and the less-disturbed air to the south. Deep shear profiles will be good to very good. As for tornado risk, the 0-1 km helicity will be strongly dependent on the spacing between the morning vort max and the main vort max. Static stability in the boundary layer will be a little weak, with most of the positive area in the modified/forecast soundings progged to be above the capping inversion.

So, the risk for significant tornadoes doesn't look too high to me right now. The forcing should be strong enough to force a squall line or MCS as the dryline moves into central Oklahoma.
 
Feb 19, 2004
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My initial target is probably going to be in the Altus area. Something tells me to stay south for this one. I'm hoping for a Tornadic Supercell (of course a supercell would be fine in itself) for the day/evening then for the night a nice squall line with tons of lightning. If that situation comes true, I'm gonna have 40-50 great images from tomorow.

Right now I'm in a wait and see on tonights/tommorow mornings convection and see where any boundaries are at. Give or take, I might play one of them tomorrow.

Anxiously awaiting storm chase #2 for 2004.....
 
Mar 4, 2004
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Moore, OK
weather.ou.edu
SPC

Well, SPC is staying conservative for the 6z outlook......but my money is on them issuing a moderate risk for the 12z outlook. I tend to agree with their tornado potential (I was thinking anywhere between 5-10 percent) but I disagree with their thoughts on the chance of severe weather tomorrow.
 
Dec 8, 2003
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Grand Forks, ND
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I wanna see some clearing... I agree with Kevin that it doesn't look like a great tornado day, but it is a weekend, and it is a good enough excuse for me to go out. Right now I'mma target the dryline... somwhere from SW Ok up to I40. Key is to be there as soon as initiation occurs...

Good luck to all!

Aaron
 
Dec 9, 2003
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Oklahoma
I was quite surprised that the SPC maintained the Slight risk for tomorrow... I mean, looking at the probabilties alone, I don't think I've ever seen slt risk for 5%, 35%, 35% probs. At any rate, I've been worried all week about that high on the east coast, which is giving much of the Gulf easterly winds... So we end up with modified continental air rather than true mT air (or true tropical in the least)... Now... check out http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA212_SV...HSWEAT_21HR.gif ... That shows the parts of western OK will have CAPES >3000 by afternoon, and SWEAT indices up near 600 (take that for what it's worth...)... I'm not worried about the helicities on that particular image, as they are absolute (environmental) helicities and not storm-relative. If you choose another site for the ETA SRH, you'll see that low-level shear, as measured by helicity, is quite favorable over much of the area ahead of the dry line... I am still thinking the subsynoptic low (if you want to call it that) progged to develop between Shamrock and Altus by 0z tomorrow will locally back winds across portions of western OK, further enhancing low--level shear.

Also, using the Bunkers method, storm motions should be E or ENE at about 35 kts, which is quite reasonable.

So, I'm pretty optimistic about this event right now... The NWS and SPC have seemingly be downplaying the potential (if not downplaying then at least not looking at the potential as favorable), so who knows...

Jeff
 

Shane Adams

Perhaps my standards are less than average, but I never really looked at tomorrow (today now) as a 'great' tornado day, just an average one. I expect a few supercells and a few tornadoes somewhere west of 35 tomorrow, and I fully expect to be near at least one of them.

Tomorrow isn't a mega-outbreak, it's just another chase day. And that's usually what the great ones start out being.
 
Feb 19, 2004
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Oklahoma City
Originally posted by Shane Adams
Perhaps my standards are less than average, but I never really looked at tomorrow (today now) as a 'great' tornado day, just an average one. I expect a few supercells and a few tornadoes somewhere west of 35 tomorrow, and I fully expect to be near at least one of them.

Tomorrow isn't a mega-outbreak, it's just another chase day. And that's usually what the great ones start out being.
Amen to that Shane.

After looking at the latest SPC outlook I still like my chances with Altus being a starting point. But that may be too far south to manuever to anything developing up north. So I might try Hobart to give me a fighting chance for anything up north.
 
Dec 11, 2003
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Shelton, CT
stormgasm.com
Originally posted by Shane Adams
Perhaps my standards are less than average, but I never really looked at tomorrow (today now) as a 'great' tornado day, just an average one. I expect a few supercells and a few tornadoes somewhere west of 35 tomorrow, and I fully expect to be near at least one of them.
I completely agree! This is why there should be a moderatre risk/15% tornado risk for tornadoes in the area mentioned.

Do most chasers seriously look for a tornado outbreak to say the tornado outlook looks good? I'm forecasting supercells with a few tornadoes. For me this means a good chase day. In my opinion, this warrents a moderate risk. I would not be surprised if the new SPC outlook upgrades to moderate.

Good luck everyone!

Jim
 

Shane Adams

This morning's analysis shed some light on a few new concerns for me concerning today. I don't like the dewpoints across much of OK/KS, struggling to reach 60. Hopefully with heating these will rise to accomdate temps and keep the DDs in a favorable area (10-15) for tornadoes. I'm not real crazy about the moisture at h7; looks like the juiciest air at this level pushes well east of the target area by 0Z. However the 850 Theta E maps look much better.

SPC mentioned the main energy looks to be arriving too early, which may explain the models agreement on no precip in SW OK/NW TX through 0Z (temps at h85 & h7 looked fine), since this would eliminate the main trigger in those areas. I'm starting to like my original target town of Enid, OK more and more, if for anything else, they'll at least be convection in that area.

I'm gonna try and thread the needle between no storms and the obvious squaller in SW KS (clearly evident by the latest UVV fields). Better UVV sigs are apparent from the NW/NC OK areas from 18-0Z, which might be indicating at least embedded sups within the mess that's coming down from KS. Still waiting for a while longer of daylight so I can hit the satellite loops. The ongoing stuff across the border of OK/TX out west will be a major player in how all this develops. I'm getting the feeling that this area of precip may continue through the day and eventually become the target storms. I dunno, I'm a little confused at them moment as far as timing/mode. But I know where I'm headed......

Hopefully cloud breaks will point the way to tornadic bliss today. I expected SPC to stay slight after what I saw this morning (I always do my own analysis the morning of an event then check SPC to compare notes). Getting ready to call my nowcaster and sift through all of this with him. More later maybe.....
 
Dec 9, 2003
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Oklahoma
Originally posted by Shane Adams
This morning's analysis shed some light on a few new concerns for me concerning today. I don't like the dewpoints across much of OK/KS, struggling to reach 60. Hopefully with heating these will rise to accomdate temps and keep the DDs in a favorable area (10-15) for tornadoes. I'm not real crazy about the moisture at h7; looks like the juiciest air at this level pushes well east of the target area by 0Z. However the 850 Theta E maps look much better.

SPC mentioned the main energy looks to be arriving too early, which may explain the models agreement on no precip in SW OK/NW TX through 0Z (temps at h85 & h7 looked fine), since this would eliminate the main trigger in those areas. I'm starting to like my original target town of Enid, OK more and more, if for anything else, they'll at least be convection in that area.

I'm gonna try and thread the needle between no storms and the obvious squaller in SW KS (clearly evident by the latest UVV fields). Better UVV sigs are apparent from the NW/NC OK areas from 18-0Z, which might be indicating at least embedded sups within the mess that's coming down from KS. Still waiting for a while longer of daylight so I can hit the satellite loops. The ongoing stuff across the border of OK/TX out west will be a major player in how all this develops. I'm getting the feeling that this area of precip may continue through the day and eventually become the target storms. I dunno, I'm a little confused at them moment as far as timing/mode. But I know where I'm headed......

Hopefully cloud breaks will point the way to tornadic bliss today. I expected SPC to stay slight after what I saw this morning (I always do my own analysis the morning of an event then check SPC to compare notes). Getting ready to call my nowcaster and sift through all of this with him. More later maybe.....
Two notes here...

1. Clouds are clearing in the eastern TX panhandle!! And that clearing line is working eastward behind the current line of convection out in western OK...

2. The 0Z models have done a HORRIBLE job with even the 12-hr forecast (valid 12z this morning)... I mean, just look at the QPF/Precip forecast. According to the 0z ETA (the 6z is even worse!), there should have not been any precip... In other words, the model is completely missing all the convection from western OK south into Texas...

I think we're gonna hafta wait until the 12Z models for any insight what-so-ever. However, the latest RUC runs have shown forcing in OK being less linear and strong compared to the ETA. Then again, shouldn't reallly take the ETA too seriously here since the 12-hr forecast is considerably off...

Still concerned about surface Tds...

Jeff
 

Glynda Fox

Well, being a very green beginner who can't even chase this season :( , I'm still trying to get in on the game of forecasting and targeting. Maybe I'll have extra time to read this season. I can already tell it's going to kill me to not be out there!

At any rate, just to pick a target area before I go to bed (just got off work), I'll pick Watonga. Of course clearing and outflow boundries will play a part, so maybe I'll get up early enough to see what's going on before things get rolling and be able to have a better idea. Watonga just looks like a good, neutral, inbetween place to start and then see what pops up.

Good luck to all who are out there today. We cyber chasers are relying on you!!!
 
Dec 11, 2003
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Denton, Texas
cycloneroad.com
For whatever it's worth, the models have misjudged precip with this system consistently for the last few days. The 18Z RUC eliminated all precip in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles for yesterday evening, as it had done the day before. Both days saw small storms.

I don't have a clear target yet either. Right now I'm tempted to just get on the road and make for Shamrock and check data again later for cloud breaks or some localized backing along the dryline. I don't see any features like that at the moment, and I wonder if the surface is going to look wacky for a few hours in the wake of that initial impulse moving through--the subsidence on the backside. Right now, clouds look thinnest in extreme southwest Oklahoma, but that may soon fill in from this new, low level stuff forming in the eastern Texas panhandle. I'm on a slow connection and can't loop anything to look for secondary impulses for later today. Guess I'll be going on faith---LOL.

Amos
 

Jay McCoy

EF5
Dec 6, 2003
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Amarillo, Texas
The morning precip really worried me but it is moving out pretty quick and there is alot of clearing in the east panhandle. the dryline is still way west and should start moving east and be just west of the border by 18z. I will probably set up between shamrock and elk city. plenty of north/south options. I will just have to wait and see where the dryline and those outflow bounderies set up. I cant leave amarillo until about noon (work) but should be in target area by 2pm. If you see a white explorer with red/blue lights, stop and say hey. good luck everybody.
 

Kevin Scharfenberg

I'm narrowing my target region to the Red River valley of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Central and northern Oklahoma look pretty hopelessly socked in with clouds and precip. Objective analyses indicate a narrow north-south instability axis across the eastern TX panhandle east of the dryline and west of the rain-cooled, cloudy, stable air to the east.

The tongue is a little narrow for now, but the best clearing on satellite appears to be developing in the far southeast TX panhandle and far western north Texas. As the lead vort max lifts out this morning, that area will continue to be the mostly likely area to see any sustained clearing skies, and I expect the largest area of co-existing instability and supercell shear will be over the southwest corner of Oklahoma and western North Texas this afternoon.

I'm "virtually" driving to Snyder, Oklahoma. Call in your reports!
 
Currently in ITC attm; after driving overnight from DSM. Still holding out hope, albeit barely, of getting on initial convection across SW OK. Current satellite shows a gap between ongoing convection (which I noted last night before hitting the sack around 4am in the C. TX. PAN), alas... holding out hope for more than a grungefest.

The "YUK" model is "whacked out and trippin" according to my chase partner attm - meaning it's undependable as to how it will handle the 18Z-and beyond period.... soooooo, not depending too heavily on that attm.

In the short term; about to experience some grungy hailers in ITC... hoping this isn't the show of the day. Initial target for later this afternoon... Clinton, OK.

..Blake..
 
Dec 4, 2003
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Norman, OK
Well, it just doesn't look that good...
Hopefully, after this morning's convection clears out, there will be sufficient clearing and warming to get storms to fire on the dryline, before the next squall line forms. If I was out there with y'all, think I'd be sitting close to Kingfisher, OK...would be able to run east with the line for a while.
Good luck, happy hunting and safe travels to all who are out today...definitely with y'all in spirit today!!

Cyber-chasing from TN.....
Angie
 
Dec 6, 2003
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Brookshire, TX
Since I am sick and broke (and sick of being broke) and the Chase target was down, I will just post that my pick was Stillwater, OK.
Good luck to all ya'll out in the field today!!!!