2022-11-04 EVENT: TX/OK/AR/LA

Warren Faidley

Supporter
May 7, 2006
2,068
2,298
21
Mos Isley Space Port
www.stormchaser.com
Convective modes will determine the outcome for those out chasing today. "Loaded gun" soundings will make for some explosive development. Parallel front / boundary flow may cause cells to morph rather quickly from isolated cells into segments, and I would not be surprised to see a potentially dangerous QLCS tornado chase situation sooner than later. There will likely be isolated, tornadic supercell(s) in the early stages (maybe further south) if you can reposition quickly as the forecast gels. Could be big problems if isolated cells form and mature west of the DFW region, so that is something to watch. Any new chasers should be aware of storm speeds (40-45 kts) and potential traffic issues around populated areas.

Screen Shot 2022-11-04 at 9.23.53 AM copy.png
 
Feb 19, 2021
232
316
6
Wichita
Please allow me to disagree. The historic outbreak for November was in 2015 on the 16th. Given the longitude, it will be a long time before we see something like this again.

It was badly under-forecast and should have been a "high risk" day. SPC sent me their "perfect probability" map and that is a 60% near LBL.
 

Attachments

  • Like
Reactions: Bobby Little
Aug 9, 2012
564
1,274
21
Macomb, IL
stormoptics.smugmug.com
Probably not on the caliber of outbreaks like November 17, 2013 or November 10, 2002 given their spatial area impacted and total number of tornadoes produced over a wide area. I would probably put it on par or slightly below that of November 23-24, 2001 tornado outbreak. A more localized event that is still highly significant if you were impacted.

Given the word "historical" in the dictionary is just an event that is important in history (no definition on what history or who's history), one could argue that to a person impacted, every event is such.... I think using terms like meterologicaly or scientifically historic would be more appropriate.
 

Warren Faidley

Supporter
May 7, 2006
2,068
2,298
21
Mos Isley Space Port
www.stormchaser.com
Historic in terms of Tornado Emergencies, with confirmed, large tornadoes and elevated debris signatures heading into (and out of) populated towns for November. I'm still astonished at the low injury and death rates. I believe the online (social media) reports by chasers, spotters and YouTube forecasters saved a lot of lives, even with the dreaded radar holes. I have very few followers compared to others, but I had people thanking me afterwards for relaying local information. We are in a new age of warning technology that cannot be ignored.
 
Sep 26, 2022
59
41
6
16
Allendale, Michigan
In terms of tornadoes, this is pretty much the average for an outbreak. but i will solidify the claim that it is unusual for this time of year.
This is the 2nd time IN A ROW where a once a year event (praying that it was) happened VERY late in the year. im just happy we did not get a impact on Dallas, as that was a real possibility this time around.
 
Aug 9, 2012
564
1,274
21
Macomb, IL
stormoptics.smugmug.com
In terms of tornadoes, this is pretty much the average for an outbreak. but i will solidify the claim that it is unusual for this time of year.
This is the 2nd time IN A ROW where a once a year event (praying that it was) happened VERY late in the year. im just happy we did not get a impact on Dallas, as that was a real possibility this time around.
Not really that unusual for this time of year. Numerous outbreaks have happened in November in the past including 2001 (11/23-24), 2002 (11/10), 2003 (11/17-18), 2004 (11/22-24), 2005 (11/5, 11/12, 11/15, 11/27-28), 2006 (11/14-16) and the list goes on. It is pretty much a yearly occurrence if you look back far enough. This time of year is big time in Dixie Alley and the Deep South and the Arklatex are no stranger to this either. It is still my opinion that this event did not hold a candle to many of those aforementioned events. So far only 2 EF3 tornadoes have been confirmed, which for November outbreak records is fairly tame.
 
Sep 26, 2022
59
41
6
16
Allendale, Michigan
Not really that unusual for this time of year. Numerous outbreaks have happened in November in the past including 2001 (11/23-24), 2002 (11/10), 2003 (11/17-18), 2004 (11/22-24), 2005 (11/5, 11/12, 11/15, 11/27-28), 2006 (11/14-16) and the list goes on. It is pretty much a yearly occurrence if you look back far enough. This time of year is big time in Dixie Alley and the Deep South and the Arklatex are no stranger to this either. It is still my opinion that this event did not hold a candle to many of those aforementioned events. So far only 2 EF3 tornadoes have been confirmed, which for November outbreak records is fairly tame.
Fair point, Historically you are 100% correct. Although i will still point out the fact that so far, 2022 has been quiet in terms of violent tornadoes. But we seem to have been getting our EF3s-4s in the early months or later months, especially in the last year or so. winterset was the only 4 so far this year, being in February. and there is a good chance that Idebel hit EF4 winds at some point during its life. but then again, it could just be the yearly Winter cold front causing grief.
 
Aug 9, 2012
564
1,274
21
Macomb, IL
stormoptics.smugmug.com
Fair point, Historically you are 100% correct. Although i will still point out the fact that so far, 2022 has been quiet in terms of violent tornadoes. But we seem to have been getting our EF3s-4s in the early months or later months, especially in the last year or so. winterset was the only 4 so far this year, being in February. and there is a good chance that Idebel hit EF4 winds at some point during its life. but then again, it could just be the yearly Winter cold front causing grief.
The strongest tornado of the year actually occurred in Georgia this last April 5th with winds of 185 mph surveyed by NWS Charleston, SC eclipsing that of the Wintersett, IA EF4 (March 5th) with winds of 170 mph (both estimated by NWS damage surveys).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Gavin Nichols