2022-05-29 EVENT: NE/SD/ND/MN/IA

[Matt Hunt]

With all the attention on Monday, I still think tomorrow is shaping up to be a solid chase day. High CAPE values (4000+) will overspread eastern NE, with dewpoints reaching mid-60's to 70+ in far southeast NE. A slot of HOT dry air pushes into the dryline in south-central NE. I usually like these bulges for storm initiation, in this case somewhere near Grand Island. Tdd could be an issue, with air temps reaching 90, so at least initially storms may be high-based. Nonetheless, high CAPE and 50+ knots 0-6km shear should support supercells with gorilla hail, and perhaps a tornado as air temps cool a bit in the evening. Storm motions aren't as bad as Monday, but still fairly quick at about 35 knots.

 

[Wes Carter]

Thoughts on my target area being Hastings, NE tomorrow? Hope to arrive by noonish and follow storms from there

That sounds like a decent place to look at based on what I’m seeing this evening. We are going to target SE Nebraska and play somewhere near the surface low to hopefully catch something busting through the cap.

 

[Christian S]

That sounds like a decent place to look at based on what I’m seeing this evening. We are going to target SE Nebraska and play somewhere near the surface low to hopefully catch something busting through the cap.

Awesome, might end up meeting with you! Definitely playing it more south since I’m over in Denver and hoping to hit Kansas Monday if things play out

 

[Jeff House]

We are in KCMO Saturday night. Will move toward Sioux Falls on Sunday. Believe the cap is too strong in eastern Nebraska. Will defer upslope West to those more versed in it.

Saturday night thunderstorms in eastern SD and northern Iowa will deposit an outflow boundary there, regardless of synoptic WF which stays farther north. We favor outflow intersection with synoptic stationary front. That’s around Sioux Falls, perhaps southwest of there.

Regardless of outcome Sunday, it’ll leave us in a good position for Monday. Again Sunday (from KC) looks like an I-29 speciaL. Depending on outflow could be far northeast Neb. More likely southeast SD.

 

[Matt Hunt]

Currently in Valentine, NE following yesterday's chase, and planning to play the stationary front in northeast NE. Cap is a concern, but HRRR has been consistent in breaking out one or two isolated supercells along the front around 00z. Short window before dark, but if it goes, it should be explosive development. Good luck and stay safe everyone!

 

[JamesCaruso]

That seems to have disappeared on the 12z, 13z and 14z runs valid for 0z…

EDIT: And now a single isolated cell is back on the 15z

 

[JamesCaruso]

Surprised 16:30 SPC has a 10% tornado risk covering areas that currently have NW winds… 15z RAP does not show winds backing in that area later either…

 

[Robert S. Thompson]

Enough CAMs have supercells that I'm excited but also nervous given the differences in where they develop. Leaning toward Salem or Yankton while constantly checking satellite and surface obs to see where boundaries are. Concerned about the strong capping in NE.

 

[Matt Hunt]

That seems to have disappeared on the 12z, 13z and 14z runs valid for 0z…

EDIT: And now a single isolated cell is back on the 15z

It was consistent for a while, but since this morning has been wildly inconsistent. I think it's boom or bust today.

 

[Todd Lemery]

Yeah…..bust. The cap wins again. The second time this year I got beat by the cap. Tomorrow that won’t be a problem.…..

 

[James Wilson]

Man it was so close so many times but we did get something from this day. 5 plus inch hail for us though I heard there may have been 7". Either way it was nice to have SOMETHING this day.