2022-05-29 EVENT: NE/SD/ND/MN/IA

Matt Hunt

EF3
Aug 2, 2009
277
158
11
Twin Falls, ID
With all the attention on Monday, I still think tomorrow is shaping up to be a solid chase day. High CAPE values (4000+) will overspread eastern NE, with dewpoints reaching mid-60's to 70+ in far southeast NE. A slot of HOT dry air pushes into the dryline in south-central NE. I usually like these bulges for storm initiation, in this case somewhere near Grand Island. Tdd could be an issue, with air temps reaching 90, so at least initially storms may be high-based. Nonetheless, high CAPE and 50+ knots 0-6km shear should support supercells with gorilla hail, and perhaps a tornado as air temps cool a bit in the evening. Storm motions aren't as bad as Monday, but still fairly quick at about 35 knots.
 

Christian S

Enthusiast
May 28, 2022
3
0
1
Orlando
That sounds like a decent place to look at based on what I’m seeing this evening. We are going to target SE Nebraska and play somewhere near the surface low to hopefully catch something busting through the cap.
Awesome, might end up meeting with you! Definitely playing it more south since I’m over in Denver and hoping to hit Kansas Monday if things play out
 

Jeff House

Supporter
Jun 1, 2008
643
748
11
Chattanooga, TN
www.linkedin.com
We are in KCMO Saturday night. Will move toward Sioux Falls on Sunday. Believe the cap is too strong in eastern Nebraska. Will defer upslope West to those more versed in it.

Saturday night thunderstorms in eastern SD and northern Iowa will deposit an outflow boundary there, regardless of synoptic WF which stays farther north. We favor outflow intersection with synoptic stationary front. That’s around Sioux Falls, perhaps southwest of there.

Regardless of outcome Sunday, it’ll leave us in a good position for Monday. Again Sunday (from KC) looks like an I-29 speciaL. Depending on outflow could be far northeast Neb. More likely southeast SD.
 

Matt Hunt

EF3
Aug 2, 2009
277
158
11
Twin Falls, ID
Currently in Valentine, NE following yesterday's chase, and planning to play the stationary front in northeast NE. Cap is a concern, but HRRR has been consistent in breaking out one or two isolated supercells along the front around 00z. Short window before dark, but if it goes, it should be explosive development. Good luck and stay safe everyone!
 
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Reactions: Jeff House
Apr 13, 2009
65
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6
Enough CAMs have supercells that I'm excited but also nervous given the differences in where they develop. Leaning toward Salem or Yankton while constantly checking satellite and surface obs to see where boundaries are. Concerned about the strong capping in NE.