I'm still not real convinced of the tornado potential tomorrow, though I will say it looks better on the 12z runs than it has the last day or so. I think the models are finally picking up on an OFB which is helping to back surface winds across southern KS/northern OK ahead of the cold front. It looks like if there is potential it will be a pretty small window but some times that's all you need. Moisture won't be an issue with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s, though I fear the high dew points could cause any supercells to be HP if they are able to form before lining out. Still on the fence about heading out from MN to chase this one day set up. Really wish I could have gotten out today.
Not as excited about tomorrow as I was last night, when the 0Z NAM was hinting at a triple point over the eastern TX PH albeit not ideal with the dryline intersecting a cold frontal boundary. There is still some look to that general configuration on the 12Z models today but NAM and GFS have significant differences in the longitudinal location of the dryline in the TX PH and it looks diffuse in any case, plus I feel the cold front now looks to be pushing southward more aggressively. Not going to spend too much time on it now, focused on today, and it will be interesting to see what impact tonight's convection has. I have no intention of messing around in the hills and trees east of I-35 in either KS or OK, so will be looking for something in the TX PH / NW OK even if a secondary target.
I haven't even looked at SPC, but don't understand the allure of this setup. Storm development in the CAMs appears along the cold-front axis, which is close to parallel to storm motion. SRH is pretty low, although at least one CAM places some higher SRH into a relatively confined space, so could see some embedded supercell structures with probably brief tornadoes. I wouldn't hold my breath. This seems like a high-CAPE, low-SRH wind event.
These are the types of events where CAMs generally won't necessarily give an accurate depiction even this early in the day. I would monitor surface data, satellite and the position of OFBs and then opt to monitor for quasi-discrete convection initiation later in areas where atmospheric recovery is plausible INVO remnant boundaries or ahead of an MCV where winds can back. That would posit the best potential for tornadogenesis with later storms. Those details should become more evident over the next 6 hours.
I am in GCK this morning and plan to head down toward the southeastern TX PH. Not interested in playing a cold front, especially as it seems the ongoing convection in SC KS / NC OK is going to just continue and evolve into a severe threat later. But I am hoping there may be some more discrete convection near the intersection of the dry line with the front and/or an outflow boundary. No actual target in mind, just heading down in that direction and will monitor surface obs. Kind of a half-hearted chase today, hard to get motivated for the 5+ hour solo drive. I probably wouldn’t even bother, except that it looks like the only chance of anything this weekend is in SE NM (with the possible exception of SE CO).
I am inclined to agree with James about the dryline/front intersection. And since I am already in the TX Panhandle it is easy enough for me to drop south. Most of the CAMs are showing some convection on the dryline or near the intersection of the dryline and the cold front, and these should be a better play than the more forced/linear storms along the cold front.
Not worth starting a REPORTS thread for today’s outcome. Very long drive from GCK and was able to get to Dickens TX, east of LBB. By around 4pm the front was already through LBB but West Texas Mesonet had Post with a SE wind. The front/dryline intersection was somewhere in this region SE of LBB. Sure enough a few echos began in Post but quickly died as they moved northeast. With time Dickens became the point of initiation but the same thing happened, two or three cells formed, passed right over me and died off. Because I had already booked a room in LBB (I was paranoid about not finding a room, after seeing sold out hotels in GCK, the holiday weekend approaching, and knowing there are not all that many towns that even have hotels in this part of TX), I was ready to call it quits at 7pm but then I saw that a storm that had developed near Silverton had split and I could potentially intercept the right-mover. I went up to Matador, but at 8pm decided not to meet it in Paducah because it just couldn’t keep itself together and I didn’t want to waste 30 minutes driving east, which both ways would add an hour getting to Lubbock. Of course, right after I bailed the storm regained its severe status and a tiny notch-looking type of feature formed literally right on the north/south road that runs through Paducah! I don’t think it was a “real” notch as the overall storm did not look like much at all, there was never a TOR warning, and in any case the feature didn’t last more than a couple of minutes. But the whole way to LBB I was watching it with anxiety, in what I like to call “reverse chasing,” where you hope something does NOT happen!
Long day, 12 hours in the car, would not have even bothered if there weren’t some upcoming potential opportunities in SE NM.
I was also on the storm that split. Took me a while to figure out what was going on, but once I put the radar in motion and saw the split, the "reverse structure" of the northern storm (left split) made perfect sense. I was on the right split when it maxed out near Turkey, producing 1.5" hail, which I bailed east just enough to miss. Found some 1.25" stones on the ground in Turkey afterwards.
Right after it split it thought briefly about rotating and there was some very broad weak rotation- but didn't last long. I did get an interesting view of both parts of the split from the picnic area on 70 right before it heads down into the canyon (right split is on the left in the pic as I was looking west). I then followed the right split to Turkey and managed to only take 1" hail.
My comparison to 5/22/19 was obviously trash. That day featured a very strong backed LLJ. Yesterday was veered off rubbish.
Still 5/22/19 had the droopy fronty thing and verified. Key was the correct LLJ. 5/22/19 even had slightly rising heights (yesterday slightly falling). Just goes to show how important proper shear is to get quality tornadoes.
I think the Texas PH suffered from warm mid-levels again. Probably also subsidence. Southwest Kansas 2.0. Kingfisher Co. OK probably had a tornado, but rain wrapped and not visible.