2020-03-02 EVENT: AR/TN/MO/IL/KY

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Jan 14, 2011
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St. Louis
stormhighway.com
A bit of a sleeper event today under a belt of 60-80kt westerly winds aloft ahead of the upper wave. Models now showing dewpoints reaching the 60F mark in much of northeastern Arkansas, western Tennessee and the Missouri bootheel region this evening/night. With decent turning in the low levels thanks to a weak surface low, ~1500 MLCape along with looping albeit small hodographs yield 0-3km SRH peaking at 300-350. Negatives are weak surface flow and, from a chasing standpoint, the event peaking well after sunset. Visible satellite shows good insolation is happening along the MO/AR border area northward, and CAMs indicate supercell development around 00z. This is close enough that I may head down there to take a look. Lightning should be plentiful enough to observe storm features after dark.
 
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@Brandon Skalniak I haven't seen anything come over the wire out of Kentucky other than minor damage on that one near Crofton from around 10 PM that's also noted on the SPC Reports page.

Somewhat surprising that the boundary layer essentially didn't decouple at all into the nighttime hours, I'm guessing from the mixing going on with the showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cell and some convection to the south, before that storm ran over an area with mesoanalysis ESRH values > 300 m^2/s^2 and almost 550 0-1KM. Classic early spring strong tornado setup in the mid-south other than it being close to 1 in the morning.
 

Joey Prom

EF1
Feb 11, 2020
68
23
6
St. Paul, Minnesota
Have you seen the radar loop? It looks like a left mover clipped the front edge of the Nashville Supercell right before it entered Nashville. Ramped up the local shear and dewpoint. There were left and right splits going on like crazy yesterday. Was very educational to watch. Thoughts and prayers going out to all those affected.
 

Zach J

Enthusiast
May 30, 2019
2
1
1
Springfield MO
My deepest condolences to the family members of those affected. I was watching this storm for a while on the radar, and it looked pretty scary.
 
Jan 14, 2011
2,941
2,744
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St. Louis
stormhighway.com

Joey Prom

EF1
Feb 11, 2020
68
23
6
St. Paul, Minnesota
Looks like a left mover just clipped the front of the Nashville Supercell right before it produced the Nashville Tornado. The radar loops were fascinating to watch yesterday. Praying for those impacted.
 

R. Doan

EF0
Apr 8, 2018
17
20
1
28
Westville Il
It was one of those unfortunate worst case scenarios. A large tornado, late at night, and a heavily populated area. Many were most likely asleep and I hope and pray for a speedy recovery for the good people of Nashville.
 

Jeff Duda

Resident meteorological expert
Staff member
Oct 7, 2008
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Broomfield, CO
www.meteor.iastate.edu
Pretty shocked to see the extent of damage and casualties. Having watched some of the preliminary videos before I went to bed last night, I hadn't gotten the impression it was quite that bad. :(
 
Jun 1, 2008
530
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Chattanooga, TN
www.linkedin.com
Davies is money as usual. You know I'd look for that later in the season down here. I'm in Tenn. Really I was a little surprised in early March. I'm all about subtle westerly over southwest slop, but I just faded it. When the KPAH cell weakened, it was off to ESPN for college basketball Big Monday.

In retrospect the advection of favorable parameters was forecastable. Soundings looked like great lapse rates but not much low-level CAPE. Forecast soundings had it but I get so skeptical of that. However action at the surface with the fronts hinted verification. SRH was never in question. I even texted to a buddy the KPAH cell is riding a boundary. It's like I saw it but I ignored it.

While that type of call is not part of my professional work, it still felt mighty odd to wake up to the sad news Super Tuesday.
 
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Brooke S

Enthusiast
Mar 13, 2020
7
1
1
Tennessee
I watxhed the suoercell produce the tornado. It was a lone cell and I'm guessing it was very strong, given it has one on hthe ground from Nashville to Gordonsville in Smith Co where we live. I was up and watching the radar. It was amazing to watch with a 25 dead final count its the deadliest tornado outbreak in Tennessee since the modern Era. Far surpassing the 2008 super Tuesday that I also witnessed. This the second time we had a march 2, 2012, but this one was much worse. The damage in Putnam is worst I've ever seen in Tennessee in my all years. Since my dad home just missed a direct hit by one lawn, I feel mighty lucky
 
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