2019 Atlantic Season Discussion

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Justin Allen

Tropical Guru/Paramedic
Staff member
Oct 10, 2018
58
16
6
New Orleans, La
www.helicity.co
Invest 95L has formed!

19193

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A persistent area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the
eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This
disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
across the north-central Caribbean Sea during the next few days,
producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Little development of the disturbance is
expected due to interaction with land. However, the system is
forecast to emerge over the Straits of Florida by the end of the
week where environmental conditions could be a little more conducive
for development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
 
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Justin Allen

Tropical Guru/Paramedic
Staff member
Oct 10, 2018
58
16
6
New Orleans, La
www.helicity.co
Another one coming off the coast of Africa, this will be the one to watch.

19195

2. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity over the far eastern tropical Atlantic a few hundred miles
southeast of Cabo Verde. Upper-level winds are expected to be
unfavorable for any significant development of this disturbance
during the next few days. However, environmental conditions are
forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 

James K

EF2
Mar 26, 2019
118
46
6
Colorado
Justin Allen said:
Another one coming off the coast of Africa, this will be the one to watch.
I honestly don't know about how hurricanes & all that works,
But the same thought of 'one to watch' crossed my mind when I saw this while looking at the NHC's postings this evening. .lol.
 
Last edited:

Justin Allen

Tropical Guru/Paramedic
Staff member
Oct 10, 2018
58
16
6
New Orleans, La
www.helicity.co
Up to a medium:
19207

2. A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
No significant development of this system is expected for the next
few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter,
upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 

Justin Allen

Tropical Guru/Paramedic
Staff member
Oct 10, 2018
58
16
6
New Orleans, La
www.helicity.co
Up to 60%!

2. A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Little to no development of the wave is expected for
the next few days while it moves westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic Ocean at about 15 mph. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
over the weekend and a tropical depression could form by early next
week several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 

Justin Allen

Tropical Guru/Paramedic
Staff member
Oct 10, 2018
58
16
6
New Orleans, La
www.helicity.co
Now we're at 70%.. And it is designated Invest 96L.

2. A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness
and shower activity several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for significant development of this disturbance during
the next couple of days while it moves westward at about 15 mph
across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week
several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

19221