2019-05-26 EVENT: KS/OK/TX/CO/NM/NE/WY

Jun 1, 2008
466
356
11
Chattanooga, TN
www.linkedin.com
Upper level turning remains adequate to support Moderate Risk. EML looks just right along I-70. I believe it will be close to Goldilocks farther south...

Dry line is intersected by multiple boundaries. Synoptic WF was up along I-70 this morning. CAMs key in on this intersection. Outflow is noted down on the KS/OK border, which should lift north. I believe CAMs miss a target at the OFB/DL intersection. Maybe they think cap, but I'd watch for over-achievement on the OFB/DL intersection.

My concept is similar to Rozel. WF wedges first. Can we get another beauty farther south on the OFB? I'm not in the field due to a MFE but good luck to all. Be safe!
 

James K

EF1
Mar 26, 2019
73
23
6
Colorado
I probably don't really belong posting in the 'Target Area' forum being a beginner at this stuff, But reading the above...
I'm in CO, & south of I-70 (far enough to also be south of Denver). And looking at the forecast, part of it says
High resolution models like HRRR/WRF seem to focusing on 2 areas of robust convection today. One is over the far eastern portions of our cwa through Lincoln and Washington counties where SPC has that area in a enhanced risk of severe storms with the best favorable shear and deepest moisture. The other area is further north closer to Denver, where convection appears to be triggered by the Denver cyclone convergence boundary setting up over east/southern portions of Denver and extending northward through DIA.
These storms set to go up close to 20z but could be an hour or 2 wiggle room depending on stratus burn off and sufficient heating. The overall boundary/surface features don`t seem to move much through the evening as models continue to generate storms over from Denver northward to the Wyoming border through late this evening. Overall, surface based CAPES anywhere from 1500-2500j/kg are available and ample shear would support large hail up to 2 inches in diameter. Given the boundary that we will have in place, could also see a few tornadoes as well. Overall forecast is in good shape with focus on highest pops and storms from Denver north and east and lowest chances over the Palmer Divide.
The 'far eastern portions' would be a bit far for me, but possibly if there's something a bit south/east of Denver I could go see it.
At this point in time standing on my roof(I know .. real scientific .lol. ) I don't see anything more than small clouds. but also looking on radar there's not much. Even though its clouding up, it is warm & feels kinda humid where I'm at (southwest of Denver, close to the mountains ).
Just wondering what any of the experts here think
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jeff House
Jul 5, 2009
812
485
21
Newtown, Pennsylvania
@James K , I am no “expert” but I think Warren said it best, “maybe” some redevelopment in CO later, I would say between the longitudes of Lamar and Limon, IF this early stuff moves east and we can get enough heating and clearing. I imagine though that this early stuff is going to retard the northeast trajectories of moisture into CO and keep the warm front from becoming better defined or lifting as far north as progged. Currently hanging in Lamar to see what happens.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jeff House