Though it's still a ways out, TUE bears watching as the main piece of energy works atop the subtropical ridge and ejects into the Central Lowlands, with timing being very crucial here. The mid-level low will gyrate into the northern Plains as a potent 100+ kt H5 jet core traverses into the mid-MO valley. The main surface cyclone is poised to deepen and lie somewhere in SC NE, as a warm front positions itself latitudinally between the MO River and I-80, though position of surface features is likely to change over the next 96 hours. Surface boundary should shunt the best moisture east of I-35 by midday, with a triple point somewhere between OAX and STJ. Vort signals and GFS convective precip progs are indicating ongoing precip in the western portion of the warm sector early in the day, and this has been consistent. However, rather ominous instability and shear values persist further east into central MO and SW and central IL, commensurate with the surface warm front and signals of burgeoning instability well east of the earlier convection across the central MO river valley. This appears co-located within a zone of favorable mid and low-level lapse rates, so all modes of SVR are possible, though many details remain to be seen as the synoptic scale event continues to evolve into late weekend.