BTW, I'm going to start tooting the shit out of my own horn here, because I feel reasonably vindicated with just about every post I made in this thread. But the one quoted above is most prominent to me, and it's one I want everyone to pay attention to.The HRRR has been an outlier since it first came into range 24 hours ago. While it has verified better in the "discrete vs. linear" storm mode issue quite recently compared to the HREF members, it should still be noted that it remains basically at the far right end of the forecast uncertainty distribution. Last night's NCAR ensemble was also on board with an event resembling that from the HREF. Even the HRRRE forecasts from today have not been in total agreement with the deterministic member through the early part of tomorrow.
I know most of you here are not degreed meteorologists and are not researchers and thus are not totally informed as to all the tools out there. Thus it makes sense that so many of you seem to live and die by the HRRR, since it is arguably the most prominent CAM (and, in fairness, it does tend to provide a lot of helpful information and value for forecasting over non-convection-allowing models). However, it is not the only CAM out there, and is not even the only operational CAM. Those of you not already familiar with the HREF need to become familiar with it. Start here: SPC HREF viewer site
The 3 km NAM is a member, as is the HRRR. The HREF gave a lot of clues that this event may not turn into a massive tornado outbreak all the way from when the first members had this event in range.
While non-operational, the NCAR ensemble is running for the next few weeks as part of the HWT spring forecasting experiment in Norman. This happens every year. NCAR Realtime Ensemble Forecasts
Also, the HRRR has an ensemble component: HRRRE viewer site
Familiarize yourself with these other CAMs and CAM ensembles, because many of them will stick around, and one of them is bound to eventually supersede the HREF as it currently exists.
It would be unwise to cherry pick the HRRR or wishcast off of it. The most sensible thing you can do as a forecaster/chaser is to collect all the information you can and make a decision based off of the consensus of that information, not just the sexiest voice.