Jeff, I totally agree. There seems to be a storm mode issue given the deep shear vectors parallel to the dryline and pressure gradient, especially west near the greater forcing close to the dryline, as one would expect. But note the isolated cell in Kingfisher County that has gone bonkers, as should be expected given the environment. The unexpected capping inversion sampled at DFW seems to be a harbinger of more such cells later this afternoon. The HRRR has been more bullish on breaking out such cells, while NAM and WRF have been consistent for a while in a relatively undisturbed central OK getting blasted by messy storm mode around 00z.
NAM this morning was indicating some slight warming in the mid-levels through 00z, with 700 temps in the 10-12C range over SW OK, which appears to be verifying according to the SPC mesoanalysis page (and possibly also implied with the mid-day FWD sounding). Been wondering for awhile if this is the reason.Not much in the way of new development east of the DL and south of the WF lately. Not exactly sure why (maybe just too much cloud cover), but given the next wave has popped down by Lubbock and storms now filling in from there up through NC OK, I'm starting to think the evolution upscale into a big line has already commenced.
MSD #710 (covering SW TX up through SE TX PH) bears this out:...As I Tweeted, I still think it's possible that storm competition can limit this event from reaching top-end performance levels. If there are just too many updrafts trying to pull in a finite amount of warm, moist air, and other storms are disrupting that, then there will be fewer tornadoes...
You may very well be correct. Seeing the 21z sounding had me worried, but it just diidn't materialize.This could also be the classic case of "1 CIN in the 00Z OUN sounding is good enough to restrict CI because there is no other lift". We see that many times in C OK.
I saw at least one person tweet an OUN obs sounding today claiming [sic] "I have never seen such a tornado-supportive sounding".And now we can compare to the 00z sounding. It was all there except that bit around 700 mb. Storms just couldn't push through. And no other forcing mechanism. The greatest outbreak that could have been.