The Euro is more or less on the same page. We could see more severe thunderstorm activity from Idaho(!) into Montana/Wyoming and the Dakotas, otherwise ridging dominates. Into week two, the Euro ensembles show, yet again, a return to troughing over the Great Lakes/Northeast. While some severe would be favored in such a pattern from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, it looks like more of an MCS/derecho pattern than anything else.So disheartening on the GFS to watch that powerful southwesterly jet stream roll into the PAC NW then just get shoved back into Canada by the giant ridge. Looks like there will be no June redemption for 2018.
Yep. Went straight from the cold eastern trough from hell to the death ridge from hell with no time for a real storm season in between, just the half-@$$ed early May sequence that produced Tescott-Culver.Lets just start a 2019 chase season discussion topic and forget this year even happened.
I believe the year you are referring to was 2003.I'd have to go back and look in my chase records, but I recall one or two years when smoke from massive wild fires in Mexico, mixed with high humidity, produced zero visibility beyond 10 miles in most regions of the Plains from south to north. I believe those years were before mobile radar, or at least one of them. It totally destroyed most of the season, or at least made chasing very difficult.
I think I was a bit overly fixated on tornadoes, as 5/29 was one of the rare chases that featured an isolated supercell that had the potential to produce, making it a noteworthy chase day to many. It also had the Dodge City area tornadoes that only a few chasers managed to target....wouldn’t you agree 5/27 it was most certainly a fairly localized mesoscale accident?
Also I think 5/29 in KS/OK is worthy of being included in the list of noteworthy chase days - not great, but at least as good as 5/27and 5/28.
Yes, this morning's 12Z models get a bit frisky around hours 84-108. If the NAM at the end of its range is to be believed, Rochelle, IL (infamous for 4/9/15) is the place and Sunday evening is the time. GFS of course is worlds different, but suggests some play somewhere in eastern Iowa. Then advertises very strong CAPE over much of WI for Monday evening. At least it's something to monitor, although regional office AFDs overnight were downplaying any severe potential with this weekend and early next week's storms.Speaking of the high plains. Looks like our long lost friend wind shear will be showing up in the upper Midwest late this weekend...