2017-06-11 EVENT: NE/KS/MN/SD

Discussion in 'Target Area' started by Dan Robinson, Jun 10, 2017.

  1. Dan Robinson

    Dan Robinson WxLibrary Editor
    Staff Member

    Jan 14, 2011
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    Two areas of interest for tomorrow (Sunday the 11th). NAM/GFS/NAM NEST have been in decent agreement with a forward-propagating MCS likely across South Dakota beginning Sunday morning. This scenario would preclude any tornado potential along the warm front in Minnesota (northern target). The trailing outflow boundary from the morning MCS is shown sinking into central/southern Nebraska, where 700mb temps cool just enough for storms to fire along this boundary. This southern target seems to hold the best potential, though all models show the main jet streak exiting at or around 00z, leaving the storms with less than 20kts of midlevel flow right after initiation. The NAM NEST shows the new storms responding to the loss of upper support by going outflow dominant into a weak south-moving MCS.

    I think the southern target (Kearney or thereabouts) is the more worthy play here, especially if the upper support hangs on a few hours longer than the models are showing. The indicated boundary should be favorably oriented for storms to root, as long as it arrives early enough to cook in the sun from midday on.
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