The last several runs of guidance is depicting at least a decent risk of some sort of severe weather across parts of the Plains and Upper Midwest Wednesday. A surface low is forecast to develop in the lee of the Rockies as soon as 18z Tuesday. . By 18z Wednesday, guidance places a fairly elongated area of low pressure over Northern Kansas with a warm front draped roughly along I80 in Iowa and Illinois. The environment south of this is characterized by temps in the low 70s and dews in the upper 60s with backed sfc winds over NW IL and E/SE IA. This yields a decent 1500-2500+ CAPE in this area and a fairly impressive 50-60kts of low-mid level shear. There is some weakness to only 30 kts evident between 200-300mb, especially on today's 18z GFS. However this is less evident on the NAM(FWIW), which has 45+kts all the way up. The SPC has outlined this in a 15% D4. Some concerns here could be due to potential capping issues and the all too familiar morning convection. A dryline is also forecast over C KS/W OK, however severe prospects are looking a bit more conditional here due to some moisture quality concerns especially with westward extent, with dews only in the mid to low 60s. There is also SW sfc winds parallel to the boundary that may make getting organized discrete cells difficult, especially in Kansas. Regardless, at least some decent severe potential exists in this area as well.