2011-04-27 MISC: AL,TN,MS,KY,OH,IN,WV,GA

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May 2, 2010
192
30
11
Springfield, IL
If all the preliminary tornado tracks Danny referenced above are verified and were continuous, there may have been TWO "tri-state" tornadoes in this outbreak... the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado (MS-AL-GA) and another that started in MS, passed just north of Decatur AL and ended in TN.

Another very disturbing stat: the mayor of Tuscaloosa now says there are 45 dead, 900+ injured and 400 "unconfirmed missing" in his community. Not just unaccounted for, but MISSING, more than 2 days out.

I realize that communications and transportation are very difficult in the stricken areas and there are probably still people that family, neighbors, responders, etc. just haven't been able to get in touch with yet. Still, to have that many people not heard from at all doesn't sound good to me.
 

E. Clark

EF0
Mar 18, 2010
48
0
5
Currently - Tahoe area
All I can say is weird things happen with Tornadoes.
One hour or so ago I was reading this AP story that mentioned: "Lonnie Golightly picked through the crumbled planks that had once been his house, looking to salvage some of his belongings. He held up a striped tie.
"I used to have a lot of nice ties," he said softly." Just two lines out of a much larger story page.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap...o8Oo0w?docId=6c1d46e8e0da45ceb4cf2a377745a9a2

THEN I go to The Alabama Weather Blog and start sifting through viewer submitted images and see a pic of half a bank statement in a guys hand that was found over 70 miles from Tuscaloosa - with Lonnie GoLightly and his wife's names on it. The hair stood up on the back of my neck.
at http://www.alabamawx.com/
 

E. Clark

EF0
Mar 18, 2010
48
0
5
Currently - Tahoe area
Just heard Jim Cantore on NBC news say that global warming is behind this outbreak of torandoes. Who here belives that? I don't for one. I never thought I would see over 300 deaths from one day of tornadoes but sometmies you get the perfect storm. It is a natural event not something we caused.
Never say never.

"Dr. Evan Mills, a scientist in the Environmental Energy Technologies Division at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory confirms that in the United States, “insured weather-related losses in recent years have been trending upward much faster than population, inflation, or insurance penetration, and far outpace losses for non-weather-related events.”

and:

"Climate factors—including human influences—shape weather patterns. According to Munich Re, one of the world’s largest Insurers, “the only plausible explanation for the rise in weather-related catastrophes is climate change.” And as Kevin Trenberth, Sc.D., head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, explained at the American Meteorological Society’s January 2011 meeting, “Given that global warming is unequivocal, the null hypothesis should be that all weather events are affected by global warming rather than the inane statements along the lines of ‘of course we cannot attribute any particular weather event to global warming.’”

In other words, says Trenberth, “it’s not the right question to ask if this storm or that storm is due to global warming, or is it natural variability. Nowadays, there’s always an element of both.”

and

"Scientists agree that the string of disastrous weather extremes this past year are the types of severe weather that will become more frequent or ferocious as the planet continues to warm. For instance, in the first major paper of its kind tracking global climatic trends from 1951 to 1999, Scottish and Canadian researchers used sophisticated computer models to confirm a human contribution to more intense precipitation extremes.

This analysis is supported by a 2010 Duke University-led study that found, “Climate change is driving increased frequency of extreme wet or dry summer weather in southeast, so droughts and deluges are likely to get worse.”

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/04/extreme_weather.html
 
Jun 14, 2010
50
0
5
44
Chautauqua Co., NY
That railroad bridge was decimated and scattered like matchsticks.
Just for the sake of argument... this is the Kinzua Viaduct after hit by an F1 in 2003...



And the trestle outside of Tuscaloosa...



Now I don't imagine this trestle in Alabama was anywhere near the size of the Kinzua Viaduct, which was 301 feet tall, and over 2000 feet long. Interesting to see the damage from the two very different bridges, from two very different tornadoes.
 
Apr 22, 2010
41
30
6
Richmond, VA
Reuters is now reporting 339 fatalities...just stunning. I never thought we would ever see a tornadic event produce these types of casualties in this age.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/29/us-usa-weather-idUSTRE73S3Q320110429

I'm now beginning to see more and more hi-res tornado damage photos that point to EF-5 damage. Yesterday seems to have been focused on rescue, today we are starting to see more images of the hardest hit areas.
 
Jun 14, 2010
50
0
5
44
Chautauqua Co., NY
Haven't seen this posted as of yet:

April 27-28, 2011, tornado outbreak statistics

NOAA's preliminary estimate is that there were 211 tornadoes on April 27-28, 2011.

During the multi-day period of April 26-28, The National Weather Service (NWS) estimates there were a total of 288 tornadoes.

NWS issued outlooks five days in advance, watches hours in advance, and tornado warnings with an average lead time of 24 minutes. NWS issued warnings for more than 90 percent of these tornadoes.

The largest previous number of tornadoes on record in one event occurred from April 3-4, 1974, with 148 tornadoes.
Current media reports indicate the death toll is 318 people, and rising. This makes the event the third deadliest tornado outbreak on record.


http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/april_2011_tornado_information.html
 

Mike Smith

If 'global warming' caused these tornadoes how do you account for this graph?


These are HADCRUT temperatures (global). The arrows point to the 1884 "Enigma Outbreak" (up to 1,200 killed), 1936 Tupelo/Gainesville (800+ killed), the April 3-4, Superoutbreak, and Wednesday's. So, if current world temperature levels are required to generate these tornadoes, how do you account for these earlier events?
 

Trey Thee

EF2
Mar 29, 2010
191
29
11
Tulsa metro
Just heard Jim Cantore on NBC news say that global warming is behind this outbreak of torandoes. Who here belives that? I don't for one. I never thought I would see over 300 deaths from one day of tornadoes but sometmies you get the perfect storm. It is a natural event not something we caused.
Thats the only way NBC would let him on the air. Shouldn't be that surprising he said that, especially on that network.

Fact is these sort of outbreaks have been happening for centuries. Blaming it on global warming is purely political posturing.
 

B Ozanne

EF5
May 3, 2004
1,740
0
5
108
Connecticut
www.easternlight.net
Thats the only way NBC would let him on the air. Shouldn't be that surprising he said that, especially on that network.

Fact is these sort of outbreaks have been happening for centuries. Blaming it on global warming is purely political posturing.
Also, if you compare the outbreaks on a fatality level then you should do it per capita. 300 killed in the 1930s is at least 3x times more per capita then 300 killed in 2011. I hate to trivialize the event like that, but it is one way to look at it.
 

Trey Thee

EF2
Mar 29, 2010
191
29
11
Tulsa metro
Also, if you compare the outbreaks on a fatality level then you should do it per capita. 300 killed in the 1930s is at least 3x times more per capita then 300 killed in 2011. I hate to trivialize the event like that, but it is one way to look at it.
I don't think its trivializing the issue, just a good open discussion.

My argument would be with today's technology and massive warning times, 300+ killed is an astonishing number and shows how clueless and self absorbed people tend to be.
 
May 2, 2010
192
30
11
Springfield, IL
IN THE COMMUNITY OF TANNER...THE INTENSITY WAS MAXIMIZED WITH A LARGE SWATH OF EF-4 DAMAGE AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH END EF-4 TO NEAR EF-5 DAMAGE. - Per NWS Huntsville in latest PIS

If I remember correctly Tanner, AL, was also hit by one of the F-5s from the '74 Super Outbreak.
 
Apr 21, 2004
101
0
5
Lawrence, KS
I'm sure some people did some stupid things, didn't pay attention, and got themselves killed, but from the severity of the damage reports, it seems evident that many people DID the right things, took cover in the safest areas of their houses, and got killed anyway. The home I live in here in Kansas, while well-constructed by 1975 standards (when it was built), is a split-level ranch without a true basement area. I think it would stand up OK to a garden-variety tornado, but if anything worse than an EF-3 hit my house, I'd probably be dead, and I sure know what to do during a storm.

All the comments about people being stupid seem pretty damn insensitive to me.
 
Feb 14, 2005
879
22
11
Charleston, South Carolina
IN THE COMMUNITY OF TANNER...THE INTENSITY WAS MAXIMIZED WITH A LARGE SWATH OF EF-4 DAMAGE AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH END EF-4 TO NEAR EF-5 DAMAGE. - Per NWS Huntsville in latest PIS

If I remember correctly Tanner, AL, was also hit by one of the F-5s from the '74 Super Outbreak.
Yes. Actually, Tanner was remarkably struck by TWO F-5s during the Super Outbreak, only 30 minutes apart.

As to speculation of reasons for the high death toll in the instant outbreak, one simple fact is that many houses in the southeast just don't have basements. I agree that apathy and a general lack of weather awareness amongst the population were undoubtedly a factor. But, with so many EF-4 + damage images, I'm sure it's plausible that many perished simply due to no access to underground shelter.
 
Mar 26, 2009
174
13
5
Bismarck, ND
Our account of the monster supercell as it crossed through St. Claire County, AL. Was recycling at this point and the tornado was rain wrapped so we couldn't see it. There were still some tense moments and some tornado damage, though.

Watch video >
 
Jun 16, 2009
173
0
0
El Dorado, Kansas
There's a BIG difference between "missing" and "unaccounted for." Every disaster has many unaccounted for, especially when power & communications are out.


I agree 100%, so take it for what you think its worth at the moment. I was kind of surprised when I first saw it that a number that high was still floating around, but this was such a large area hit that it really isn't all that abnormal.
 
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1041 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2011

PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY INFORMATION FROM CULLMAN COUNTY

PRELIMINARY RATING: EF-4

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KHUN/1104300341.nous44.html

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1056 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2011

...UPDATED PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY INFORMATION
..FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES

PRELIMINARY RATING: EF-4

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KHUN/1104300356.nous44.html

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
803 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2011

..UPDATED FOR TORNADO NO 4 IN GREENE...HALE...AND BIBB COUNTIES

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBMX/1104300105.nous44.html
 
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