Mobile Bay storm surge
Surge height in Mobile bay will be hyper-sensitive to storm track.....
If W side of eyewall passes E of Mobile Bay, NE winds will back to N and then NW as storm makes landfall. This would actually blow water out of Mobile Bay and create "negative storm surge".
If E side of eyewall passes W of Mobile Bay, storm surge will be maximized. As storm makes landfall, NE winds will veer to E then SE then S, pushing water up Mobile Bay, creating worst storm surge scenario.
A direct hit with the eye moving up the bay would create a scenario much worse than a miss to the E but not as bad as a near miss to the W.