2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)
- Thread starter Chris Sokol
- Start date
Levee heights
A surge of 10 - 16 ' + high tide + wave action = Big test for levee system
Ivan appears to be right on track with the latest forcast point, confirming the northward turn
http://www.nola.com/washingaway/risk_5.html
A surge of 10 - 16 ' + high tide + wave action = Big test for levee system
Ivan appears to be right on track with the latest forcast point, confirming the northward turn
If its just waves crashing over the levees NO is probably ok. The pumps can handle that kind of water. Now, if the levees are broken by the wave action, or they are totally overtopped the pumps will not be able to keep up. The pumps wouldn't even matter, it would be like pumping the Atlantic into the Pacific.
Might extend further into the system than this. Microwave imagery shows a lack of precip wrapping all the way around:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...sBy12hr_27.html
TLH sounding still showing plenty of deep moisture moving east ahead of the storm (though the upper portions are in Ivan's exhaust), but there is a lot of dry air in the upper atmosphere at SIL moving SEward - so tough to say how close the dry air is really getting to the core region of Ivan. Definitely over the warm core eddy now - so that is good news for the Gulf coast with Ivan currently weakening.
Glen
Yeah, all the trees, houses, etc... slow the wind down near the ground - so the higher up you go friction has less of an effect to slowing the wind down. Hurricanes have the strongest winds about 500 m above the ground - so the closer you get to this height the stronger the winds will be.
Glen
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/fl...t-vis-loop.html
This is what I have been watching. I am seeing a wobble (?) to the NW again..........or think I am.
This is what I have been watching. I am seeing a wobble (?) to the NW again..........or think I am.
Latest recon / vortex message continues to show the effects of dry air entrainment, as central pressure is up to 940mb, with max flight-level winds of 123kts. This indicates that Ivan is likely down to 110kts at the surface, making it a cat 3. There does appear to be some stronger convection developing and wrapping around the south side of the storm, which may have to stabilize the weakening.
The 1145UTC water vapor loop shows very well this entrainment...
[Broken External Image]:http://www.tornadocentral.com/now/dryentrainmentivan.jpg
The 1145UTC water vapor loop shows very well this entrainment...
[Broken External Image]:http://www.tornadocentral.com/now/dryentrainmentivan.jpg
What if the winds are high category 5 at the surface? We're gonna have a problem here. Innundated New Orleans with violently swaying, and possibly falling buildings. Remember also that the destructive power of water increases exponnentially with depth and speed. Floodwaters can do more damage than an F5 tornado. This combination of wind and water could really be devastating even with a glancing blow. Nobody should be near New Orleans right now. The place should be a ghost town.
It's not that bad. High rise buildings are designed to handle CAT 5 winds. The glass, walls, and furniture might be blown out but the buildings wont be collapsing. Also, the flooding in New Orleans (if it happens) would not be like a flash flood. It would just turn into a big, filthy lake.
Looking at the hi-rez loop ending 17:33Z, Ivan is definitely wobbling? west of north and loaded for bear. What an awesome presentation! The eye is 40 miles wide at the top at least, but seems to be trying to contract. Also, as noted, the CDO outflow seems most active in the northwest quadrant. It better make it's turn soon or east LA is going to have a rather bad night.
17:45 utc… It would appear that Ivan will have a hard time hitting the next forecast point. If he continues on this path landfall could be western MS.
I agree... I thought we would've seen that turn to the N or NNE by now, but Ivan is stubbornly plowing NNW towards the LA/MS state border.
Take a look at buoy data, though:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php...dist=300&time=3
While water temps are pretty warm, basically 80-85F, there was a lot of discussion about 86+ temps feeding Ivan at the time he was pounding Grand Cayman as cat5.
The 1 p.m. CDT last-hour obs from BURL1 (at the tip of the thin peninsula poking southwest) just came in. The wind backed six degrees but is still 035 (at 55kt). Meanwhile 42040 (south of Dauphin Is. AL) direction is holding at about 045 (at about 50kt). Still a westward bias....
It is reported that Ivan is moving North, but I sit and watch the loop over and over and over......I see W of North. You think Pass Christian is in the line of fire AGAIN?????
Do I smell another Camille? :idea:
Do I smell another Camille? :idea:
Carrie, I was just doing some plotting, and had come up with the same landfall at Pass Christian, although a jog 50 miles west would be very bad for New Orleans.
Camille was a very small storm. You could probably fit the whole CDO circulation inside Ivan's eye!
Another good comparison is Frederick: http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurri...anefrederic.htm
Still not quite the animal we're looking at now IMO.
Another good comparison is Frederick: http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurri...anefrederic.htm
Still not quite the animal we're looking at now IMO.
Agree, I was seeing a Mississippi landfall too but figured I wasn't looking at enough data. Landfall anywhere in Mississippi puts it within 95 miles of New Orleans. I'm not sure if that's close enough to do any damage, especially being on the western side.
This is why I would hate to be a tropical storm forecaster... I can't even begin to imagine the pressure on these people regarding recurvature.
Tim
This is why I would hate to be a tropical storm forecaster... I can't even begin to imagine the pressure on these people regarding recurvature.
Tim
Buoy 42040 has now broken the record wave height ever measured in the Gulf of Mexico by a buoy. 42ft as of the last observation!!
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=42040
And this buoy is still quite a distance from the eye of Ivan.
The previous record wave height of 40ft occurred during Hurricane Lili.
Does anyone else think Ivan seems to be strengthening?? The eye seems much more symmetrical and rigid in the last few infrared shots.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=42040
And this buoy is still quite a distance from the eye of Ivan.
The previous record wave height of 40ft occurred during Hurricane Lili.
Does anyone else think Ivan seems to be strengthening?? The eye seems much more symmetrical and rigid in the last few infrared shots.
Bouy winds
Rules of thumb for converting 5 m bouy winds to 10 m winds:
-Multiply 5 m wind by 1.1 for 40 knot bouy wind.
-Multiply 5 m wind by 1.15 for 60 knot bouy wind.
*the factor may be even greater if sheltering behind giant waves is a factor.
P.S. Bouy # 42040 is the best location for a direct hit, if it survives.
Rules of thumb for converting 5 m bouy winds to 10 m winds:
-Multiply 5 m wind by 1.1 for 40 knot bouy wind.
-Multiply 5 m wind by 1.15 for 60 knot bouy wind.
*the factor may be even greater if sheltering behind giant waves is a factor.
P.S. Bouy # 42040 is the best location for a direct hit, if it survives.
Mobile Bay storm surge
Surge height in Mobile bay will be hyper-sensitive to storm track.....
If W side of eyewall passes E of Mobile Bay, NE winds will back to N and then NW as storm makes landfall. This would actually blow water out of Mobile Bay and create "negative storm surge".
If E side of eyewall passes W of Mobile Bay, storm surge will be maximized. As storm makes landfall, NE winds will veer to E then SE then S, pushing water up Mobile Bay, creating worst storm surge scenario.
A direct hit with the eye moving up the bay would create a scenario much worse than a miss to the E but not as bad as a near miss to the W.
Surge height in Mobile bay will be hyper-sensitive to storm track.....
If W side of eyewall passes E of Mobile Bay, NE winds will back to N and then NW as storm makes landfall. This would actually blow water out of Mobile Bay and create "negative storm surge".
If E side of eyewall passes W of Mobile Bay, storm surge will be maximized. As storm makes landfall, NE winds will veer to E then SE then S, pushing water up Mobile Bay, creating worst storm surge scenario.
A direct hit with the eye moving up the bay would create a scenario much worse than a miss to the E but not as bad as a near miss to the W.
Marc Grant
I may be wrong but I see it differently. If the ocean floods into NO and the lake floods into the downtown area, there will be one huge torrent of water from the flooding Mississippi and lake. The river will continue to make it's way to the ocean via the flooded areas.