2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)

[Chris Sokol]

Tropical Storm Ivan is looking better and better organized. NHC is forecasting Ivan to reach hurricane status by Sunday, and possibly major hurricane status by Tuesday. The current projections indicate that this could be #3 for Florida.

 

[B Ozanne]

It's southern route will keep it in warm waters, away from the upwelling of Frances.

Just wait, as America focuses on what is shaping up to be a big rain maker Ivan just might sneak in the back door.

 

[rdale]

Interesting that the 06Z GFDL valid Sep 8 / 06Z has it down to 922mb! But it takes a very southern track...

"as America focuses on what is shaping up to be a big rain maker Ivan just might sneak in the back door"

There's no way that Ivan will hit land while Frances is making noise, it's too far away. Regardless - I doubt anyone would be ignoring Ivan at any point in his life.

- Rob

 

[Kevin Walter]

The first few forecast discussions for Ivan were amazing - with talk of some of the models bringing it to a CAT 4 in 3 days. Obviously *that* isn't going to quite happen, but it will be interesting to watch.

As a side note, one factor with major hurricanes is that statistics are against them staying major hurricanes for longer than about 3 days. I don't remember the exact figures, but it seems like prior to the last few years there had only been one, maybe two storms ever that stayed a Cat 3 or above for longer than 4 or 5 days. That's one factor we considered when we were thinking about targeting Isabelle last year. It had been a major hurricane for so long, odds were heavily against it making it all the way to the US as one. We didn't go, and we were darn glad b/c it did weaken substantially. Same thing is happening now with Frances. We'll have to wait and see for Ivan.

I can already see it now though, the media's ratings baby - 'Ivan The Terrible'.

 

[B Ozanne]

I wasn't literally saying that Ivan would sneak in the back door as Frances was hitting. I was thinking the people and the media were just going to be worn out by the time Ivan hits.

 

[David Schuttler]

Will the disturbance north of Ivan have an effect ?

 

[Chris Sokol]

Well, as of this morning Ivan is now a hurricane. Current steering projections look to take the storm up the eastern side of Florida. With all of the upwelling that has taken place with Frances, this should create quite a hostile environment for Ivan.

 

[B Ozanne]

On the current route Ivan is going to take a beating over Hispaniola. Mountains there are over 10,000 feet.

 

[Kevin Walter]

Yeah, but it sure does look pretty this morning. A visible loop of the Atlantic basin off the NHC satellite page shows both Frances and Ivan. How beautiful. Ivan is cruising, though, I think 18 kts at this time. This thing is so far south. With the coriolis force so small at that latitude, it's doing a wonderful job of intensification. Maybe the southern track will hold, it'll have a fresh expanse of undiluted energy, Florida will be spared, and the Gulf will get some love this season.

Nonetheless, the tropics develop soooo slowly. Hard to handle as an impatient, instant-gratification severe storm chaser. I need to step away from the computer for a few days, go into a coma, and see what it looks like then.

 

[Chris Hayes]

1 PM update on Ivan has it's sustained winds now at 115mph :shock:

 

[Kevin Walter]

Holy crap! How incredible. The 11am NHC forecast for Ivan was for it to become a Cat 3 at 120 hours. It became a Cat 3 in 3 hours. Lets see, that's something like ... 40,000% error. Cutting some slack though.

How amazing is that. This thing is moving at an incredible speed as well. In 5 days it could be over Cuba?! Meaning another possible Florida landfall in less than a week?!

I'm speechless.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I dont want it to go near florida, the water is too cool there from upwelling now. Send it to the gulf of mexico where the water is 85-90

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Very, very interesting forecasts for Ivan ... For Example, check out http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/p...ts/storm_09.gif ... I'll include them at the bottom of the post since anything after an oversized pic is included in the picture frame... Whatever the case, check out the 7-day HPC forecast too at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif , which shows the hurricane just off the southeast Florida coast by next weekend. Actually, it shows it as a low, but that's just because of uncertainty. The forecast movement is quite fast, so 5-day forecasts errors shouldn't be tooooo bad.

EDIT: From the HPC 3-7 day forecast discussion:
"...TROPICS...
HURCN IVAN TO MOVE THRU THE WINDWARDS AND HEAD NWWD INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES. DAYS 6 AND 7 SAT/SUN IVAN MAY BE IN THE BAHAMAS CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. VERY GOOD MODEL CLUSTERING AIMING AT THIS AREA. SEE NHC ADVISORIES/WARNINGS."

[Broken External Image]:http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

 

[Joel Wright]

I dont want it to go near florida, the water is too cool there from upwelling now. Send it to the gulf of mexico where the water is 85-90

Yeah that's nice. Lets just hope it gets stronger and causes more destruction.. :angry7: :roll:

 

[Robert Dewey]

I dont want it to go near florida, the water is too cool there from upwelling now. Send it to the gulf of mexico where the water is 85-90

Yeah that's nice. Lets just hope it gets stronger and causes more destruction.. :angry7: :roll:

LOL...

Kind of like how storm chasers wish for a tornado outbreak, huh? I don't think what Chris is hoping for will change what actually happens anyway (at least it never does for me, on potential tornado days :lol...

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Well, the rapid strengthening/deepening continues, as a special intermediate 8pm advisory upgraded Ivan to CAT 4, with 135mph winds and 948mb central pressure. It looks like there is a legitimate possibility that this will be the first Cat 5 of the season... Recon missions start on Tuesday, and there's a scheduled synoptic mission (for model ingestion) for the 0z runs that day also...

 

[Robert Dewey]

For what its worth, I'm going to say that this hurricane probably won't be too intense when (or if) it hits the U.S. mainland - Looks like it will be the most intense across Haiti and through ol' Castros back yard. The terrain over those regions combined with the angle at which the hurricane is projected to move will minimize it's time over water, so it is quite possible that it could weaken dramatically.

Then again, as others have mentioned, hurricane forcasting is far from accurate that far in advance...

 

[Kevin Walter]

Who. Freaking. Knows.

Not the NHC. Not us. Not the models (have you seen the 00z Kate Moss???). Not Castro. Surely not Castro.

I'm going to agree and say that it won't be a major hurricane when (and if) it makes landfall. However, rather than say it's due to topography, I'll say it's just as with Isabelle last year and Frances this year; statistics are heavily against a storm remaining a major hurricane for very long. It's just too far away. Although, it is moving at Mach 10, and it may only have another 6 days over open water.

Sigh. Here's to another week of checking NHC updates religiously. (What's that honey? [distracted].....feed the cat?.....yeah, yeah...I'll get it in juuuust a minute. [emaciated meow]).

 

[JR Hehnly]

Forcast track from various models:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/AL092004.gif
[Broken External Image]:http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/AL092004.gif

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/p...ts/storm_09.gif
[Broken External Image]:http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

 

[Chris Sokol]

Ivan could end up as the biggest player of the seaon. Current trends indicate minimal decrease in strength due to interaction with the islands, and plenty of time to recover before striking the conus. Still looks like a south Florida strike, possibly in the Miami area. One question I have is how far south the waters are cooled due to Frances.

 

[Shane Adams]

Down to a Cat 3 this morning. Not reporting because I care, but it's on every channel 24-7 so I hear about it whether I'm trying to or not. After Frances, I don't see how anyone can get too excited about Ivan since tropical systems tend to be letdowns, and if it were to be a badass, it would devastate an already wrecked area - don't see how that could be fun.

I think with hurricanes, you've got a window where it's fun then it becomes a nightmare; two in three weeks have caused havoc and I just don't see how even hurricane fans can wish another upon the state of Florida, which is where everyone seems to think it's headed. Once again, I'm thinking the stringers will be dancing in the streets (what's left of them), but other than those folks, I just don't see the draw.

 

[Chris Sokol]

http://www.caribbean-weather.net/hurricaneIVAN.html

Lots of good info and graphics.

This is an interesting snippet from a local forecast page:

LOCAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION
=================================

The hurricane is breaking all the known rules, in that it has intensified rapidly
whilst clipping along at near 20 mph and at such a low latitude south of or near 10N.

At around 3 pm. it was closer to 10.4N 47.2W and while that may seem like reasonable jog
to the north-west, the lastest animated loops suggest that a more westerly track has
started back for now. Ivan is getting larger as we speak and could a major Cat. 4 hurricane
by the time it gets the Eastern Caribbean by early Tuesday morning - now only 36+ hours away.

A Hurricane Watch will probably be raised for Barbados by 5 pm., as I think 11 pm. would be
too late! However, that is up to the relevant authorities.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Eek... Recent recon reports show that Ivan is considerably weaker than previously thought. The reported central pressure is 969mb, and the NHC has set winds at 115mph, a weak Cat 3, on a special 2pm advsisory.

 

[Zach Bailey]

Eek... Recent recon reports show that Ivan is considerably weaker than previously thought. The reported central pressure is 969mb, and the NHC has set winds at 115mph, a weak Cat 3, on a special 2pm advsisory.

I don't see how the NHC can set the winds at 115mph...for two reasons. One, does 969mb even support winds of 115mph? I would think it would need to be at least 15-20mb lower. And second, the most recent hurricane hunter vortex message (the one which reported the pressure of 969mb) reported... MAX FL WIND 53 KT SW QUAD 1728Z, which using the .9 reduction only gives 48kt at best. What is the NHC thinking here? Do they not want to admit they're wrong even though they've seen the empirical results from the hurricane hunter? Or do they just think that the hurricane hunter didn't sample the strongest winds? :?

 

[Tim Vasquez]

I have added the model paths to our own forecast plot. Updated every 30 minutes. Interesting that the UKMET wants to take it into the western Gulf, though the track change at 72 hours or so makes me wonder if a different set of parameterizations are used from there on out.

http://www.stormtrack.org/ivan.gif