Tropical Storm Ivan is looking better and better organized. NHC is forecasting Ivan to reach hurricane status by Sunday, and possibly major hurricane status by Tuesday. The current projections indicate that this could be #3 for Florida.
I dont want it to go near florida, the water is too cool there from upwelling now. Send it to the gulf of mexico where the water is 85-90
LOCAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION
The hurricane is breaking all the known rules, in that it has intensified rapidly
whilst clipping along at near 20 mph and at such a low latitude south of or near 10N.
At around 3 pm. it was closer to 10.4N 47.2W and while that may seem like reasonable jog
to the north-west, the lastest animated loops suggest that a more westerly track has
started back for now. Ivan is getting larger as we speak and could a major Cat. 4 hurricane
by the time it gets the Eastern Caribbean by early Tuesday morning - now only 36+ hours away.
A Hurricane Watch will probably be raised for Barbados by 5 pm., as I think 11 pm. would be
too late! However, that is up to the relevant authorities.
I don't see how the NHC can set the winds at 115mph...for two reasons. One, does 969mb even support winds of 115mph? I would think it would need to be at least 15-20mb lower. And second, the most recent hurricane hunter vortex message (the one which reported the pressure of 969mb) reported... MAX FL WIND 53 KT SW QUAD 1728Z, which using the .9 reduction only gives 48kt at best. What is the NHC thinking here? Do they not want to admit they're wrong even though they've seen the empirical results from the hurricane hunter? Or do they just think that the hurricane hunter didn't sample the strongest winds? :?Eek... Recent recon reports show that Ivan is considerably weaker than previously thought. The reported central pressure is 969mb, and the NHC has set winds at 115mph, a weak Cat 3, on a special 2pm advsisory.