Satellite shows some clearing in the Seminole/Andrews TX area, with temps warming into the low 70s and dewpoints in the low 60s. The OFB is roughly between LBB and Denver City. The 15Z HRRR run shows moisture pooling along the OFB roughly along the latitude of Denver City at 21Z, and depicts a nice right-moving discrete supercell between 22Z and 00Z around the Brownfield / Lamesa area. NAM 3KM (earlier run - 12Z) shows the OFB at about the same latitude, but has the moisture pooling further east, say around Post/Snyder. It depicts a large storm developing in the area, possibly not as discrete as shown on the HRRR. NAM3KM also shows a discrete storm near Denver City, but it does not last long. From what I can tell, neither model shows the OFB moving all that much from its current position, although SPC mentioned some drift to the north.
Overall, I'm a bit more hopeful than I was a few hours ago, and will likely target somewhere around Denver City / Adair / Seminole, subject to adjustment based on surface obs. About to check the 16:30Z SPC outlook now.